The battle for the top Democratic slot on the House Oversight Committee ends Tuesday — and it is Rep. Robert Garcia’s (D-Calif.) to lose.
The House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee will convene to make its recommendation after votes this evening. The committee members will have an opportunity to ask questions of the candidates before voting on their pick, per a person familiar with the structure. On Tuesday morning the entire caucus will vote via secret ballot.
Garcia, a sophomore member, has been running on a pledge to bring generational change, but he has tried to make it subtle enough to not offend those in the caucus who value seniority. Garcia also comes armed with an endorsement from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and support in the California delegation, a crucial asset when so many key Democratic groups have not weighed in on the race.
In a contest that began as wide open, Garcia has become the favorite, according to multiple top Democrats and aides tracking the race.
His competition: Reps. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), Kweisi Mfume (D-Md.) and Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas).
Of the other candidates, none of them seem to have broken through and no one has a clear base of support. Mfume and Crockett are both members of the Congressional Black Caucus, an uncomfortable dynamic that ensured the group would stay neutral. But even prominent individual members of the CBC have been strangely quiet, trapped between loyalty to their colleagues and their dedication to rewarding seniority.
There are a few factors that make this contest especially unpredictable. The House has just been on recess, making whipping more challenging. And there are four candidates running, which means that multiple ballots may be needed for someone to reach a majority.
The field. Lynch is the most senior member of the panel and has unsuccessfully run for the job before. Lynch is also the acting ranking member, and he emphasized that in his pitch.
House Democrats we talked to believe Lynch has the next clearest path after Garcia and could benefit from the support of more seasoned members who can’t stomach voting for a sophomore member trying to hop to the front of the line.
Mfume has also stressed his seniority and his extensive executive experience. After serving in Congress decades ago, Mfume left to lead the NAACP. When the late Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) died, Mfume ran for his old seat.
Crockett has pitched herself as someone who can excite the party’s base and use her online and social media presence to boost vulnerable members. Crockett said she’s raised $4.14 million for the House Democratic campaign arm and has over 400,000 emails on her fundraising list.
But Crockett has also leaned into the idea of impeaching President Donald Trump, a stance that hasn’t endeared her to members who have to run in districts that Trump carried. Meanwhile, Garcia told members he knows that the Oversight Committee can’t function solely as an anti-Trump entity.
Another big selling point for Garcia: he wants to share the bully pulpit. When it’s time to question officials, Garcia stressed that he would make sure other members had a chance to take center stage, according to people familiar with his pitch.
