Happy Labor Day, happy September and welcome back. We missed you too.
There are 64 days until Election Day.
The House and Senate return next week. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Pittsburgh this afternoon after they meet with aides involved in the effort to free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.
Since we left you, the political environment has continued to improve for Harris and the Democrats, although the presidential race remains extraordinarily close in the battleground states.
House Republicans are worried about keeping their tenuous majority, and Democrats continue to outraise the GOP. Our friends at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter have their House rankings here, which shows a competitive landscape in the fight for control of the chamber. Senate Republicans remain in a very strong position to grab the majority, yet the outlook is brighter for Democrats in Arizona and Nevada especially.
New: Speaker Mike Johnson is heading to Italy this week for his first trip abroad as speaker. Johnson will be participating in a G7 meeting for heads of parliaments.
News on government funding: It’s that time of year again. Federal agencies run out of money on Sept. 30. There won’t be a government shutdown. Congress traditionally passes a short-term funding bill to get past Election Day. But that doesn’t mean the month will be devoid of drama.
To Democrats and the White House, the contours of this legislative battle is quite clear: Johnson has to stick to the funding levels agreed to under last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act.
This includes the side deals hammered out by Biden and then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. House GOP leaders, of course, haven’t done this in any of their proposed FY2025 funding bills.
This is a red line for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, as he told us during an interview at the DNC in Chicago last month.
Here’s the news: Johnson and the GOP leadership are discussing a plan to move a CR next week when the House returns that would extend government funding into March 2025 with the SAVE Act attached to it.
The SAVE Act requires proof of citizenship in order to register to vote in a federal election. It’s already illegal for undocumented immigrants to cast a ballot in federal elections.
Why is Johnson doing this? The speaker is getting pressure from hardline conservatives and former President Donald Trump to attach the SAVE Act to the CR even if it threatens a shutdown.
Conservatives also want a CR until next year in hopes that Trump will be back in office.
We’ll note that this is the speaker’s opening salvo. Johnson is running this play early – the week of Sept. 9 – to try to give himself time to make the case that he moved a CR and the onus should be on the Senate to accept it.
Will this work? No. First, it’ll be difficult for Johnson to get 218 votes for this proposal. There are a lot of House Republicans who just won’t vote for any CR. The hope in the GOP leadership is that Johnson will gain Republican votes by inserting the SAVE Act.
But moderate Republicans and those in swing districts have little to gain here by threatening a shutdown just five weeks before Election Day. The Senate won’t go for it – including some Republicans – and the White House will say no.
China week. House Republicans are trying to make September about unifying GOP lawmakers and dividing Democrats.
To that end, the House Republican leadership is quietly planning a week focused on curbing what they see as an existential threat from China. This themed week has been discussed inside the Republican leadership for some time. But it’s now September and there’s not much political safe ground for the four-seat GOP majority other than rapping on geopolitical enemies.
To that end, the House Republican leadership has told committees of jurisdiction that it is teeing up a number of bills for possible consideration. Here’s the list of bills that the House is expected to consider under a rule:
– The End Chinese Dominance of Electric Vehicles in America Act of 2024. This bill, which was written by Rep. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.), bars individuals who have electric cars with batteries made from “prohibited foreign entities” from getting clean vehicle tax credits.
– Rep. Dan Newhouse’s (R-Wash.) Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act. Newhouse, who faces a very tough challenge in November, just introduced the bill last week. The legislation makes it more difficult for foreign nationals to buy American farmland.
– Rep. Tom Tiffany’s (R-Wis.) No WHO Pandemic Preparedness Treaty Without Senate Approval Act. This doesn’t expressly deal with China but makes any World Health Assembly agreement on pandemics subject to a Senate vote. This has long been a talking point in conservative circles.
– DHS Restrictions on Confucius Institutes and Chinese Entities of Concern Act by Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas). This legislation bars DHS from giving funding to a university that receives funding from the Chinese government.
– The Protect America’s Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act of 2024 by Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas). This legislation reestablishes a China-focused division in the Justice Department.
Twenty-one other bills are lined up to be considered under suspension of the rules, meaning they’ll need a two-thirds vote to pass. Here’s the list with the link to each bill.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
