The government-funding deadline isn’t for another 15 days. But this week will go a long way toward revealing the massive challenges that Congress and the White House face in avoiding a shutdown come Oct. 1.
We’re officially in the danger zone. A shutdown appears more likely than not at this point. That’s not to say it’s guaranteed. Shutdowns are terrible politics and policy. But Republicans and Democrats are heading in diametrically different directions right now, with each side comfortably betting on their own strategy. And that could lead to a shutdown unless something changes.
The House Republican leadership plans to put a bill on the floor this week to keep the federal government open through Nov. 20, a strategy aimed at giving appropriators another seven weeks to hash out a broader spending deal for the FY2026 bills.
Republicans are saying the CR will be “clean” — free of partisan policy riders.
But as we’ve reported, the GOP proposal doesn’t include any of the Democrats’ demands. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have said they can’t vote for any CR unless it includes health care-related provisions.
It’s not clear if Democrats are demanding that Republicans renew enhanced premium subsidies for Obamacare or restore OBBB Medicaid cuts. Rather, Schumer and Jeffries have simply called on Republicans to negotiate.
And the two top Democrats insist that the other big issues in the funding talks — such as member security — must be addressed at the leadership level, not by appropriators.
“If Republicans follow Donald Trump’s orders to not even bother dealing with Democrats, they will be single handedly putting our country on the path towards a shutdown,” a Schumer spokesperson said.
Either way, Republicans haven’t included any health care language in their CR proposal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune explicitly told us on Fly Out Day that there’s no way he would include such policies in a seven-week stopgap bill.
So Hill Republicans and the White House seem to be going for a re-run of their March strategy: Jam a funding bill through the House using only GOP votes and then force Senate Democrats to decide whether to shut down the government. Schumer blinked, and for this, was hammered by the left. This time around, working hand-in-glove with Jeffries, Schumer seems a lot less likely to acquiesce.
There are many dynamics to run through here.
The House. The immediate challenge for Speaker Mike Johnson and the GOP leadership team is to release the CR text. Republican leaders have traditionally given the rank-and-file 72 hours to review bills before putting them up for a vote. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but Johnson tries to stick to it.
There’s a bit of back and forth over security for members of Congress. The White House requested $58 million in additional funding for executive branch and judicial security. In doing so, the Trump administration said it would support more funding to protect members of Congress. That hasn’t been finalized yet.
The big question is whether House GOP leaders can get 218 votes for their CR. Democrats aren’t expected to give the GOP any help in the House. With full attendance, Johnson can lose just two votes. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) will almost certainly be opposed, so that leaves Johnson just one vote to spare.
The argument that Johnson will make to rank-and-file Republicans is that it will weaken their party’s hand in the shutdown showdown if they can’t get a bill out of the House with GOP votes only.
This is true, but the argument has gotten a bit tired to the GOP rank and file. The biggest danger for Johnson is conservatives, who will undoubtedly say that the Senate will end up jamming the House on a long-term funding bill filled with Democratic priorities. Indeed, the Senate process has been bipartisan, and Thune has stood by it.
We don’t think Jeffries will have a hard time holding his caucus together against the CR. But it’s worth watching Democrats like Reps. Jared Golden (Maine), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) and Henry Cuellar (Texas).
The Senate. Presuming the House passes the CR early enough, Thune could tee up the bill by the end of the week.
The problem for Thune is that the Senate will need a few days to process a funding bill without consent. That could mean scrapping some of next week’s planned recess for Rosh Hashanah. We’re told that bringing senators back to Washington at the end of next week is on the table.
Once Thune files cloture, there’s an intervening day followed by the first procedural vote, which is set at a 60-vote threshold.
Yet we don’t need to wait that long to know what Senate Democrats’ CR play is. Senate Democrats are going to filibuster, stopping Republicans from passing the CR. The question is what happens next.
Both sides seem pretty comfortable with their positions: Republicans say Democrats are being unreasonable with their demands. Democrats say Republicans won’t negotiate and thus own the shutdown. The party that instigates a shutdown — almost always Republicans — usually loses these political fights. In this case, Democrats are rejecting what’s being described as a clean CR.
And remember: When justifying his decision to vote for the GOP funding bill in March, Schumer argued that a shutdown would be the worst outcome. Schumer said it would embolden Trump to thumb his nose at Congress even further, and that the president would use a shutdown to inflict maximum pain. We agree that Trump will make this shutdown as painful as possible.
Member security. House Democrats held a call Sunday night with U.S. Capitol Police Chief Michael Sullivan to discuss the security situation in the wake of the Charlie Kirk assassination. Roughly 150 members, as well as spouses and members’ children, were on the call. There was discussion of extending the $5,000 per month security allowance, which expires at the end of this month, among other options.
