Legislative business starts today at 11 a.m. with the closing of the 118th Congress. The new Congress begins at noon with the quorum call and the vote to elect a speaker.
And the 119th Congress will kick off with drama. Speaker Mike Johnson is facing an alarming revolt from conservative hardliners. Does this sound familiar? President-elect Donald Trump has been lobbying Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) on Johnson’s behalf, as we scooped for you on Thursday. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a frequent Johnson critic, is backing him. But this may not be enough.
Johnson has a tenuous single-digit majority, while a dozen hardliners have publicly questioned whether he deserves to remain speaker.
Let’s be clear: It’s entirely possible that Johnson could lose the speakership today or this weekend, or that the balloting goes more than one round.
The latest. Johnson spent Thursday making phone calls and holding meetings in his Capitol office in a bid to shore up his vote count. Johnson met with members of the House Freedom Caucus, including Roy and GOP Reps. Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Victoria Spartz (Ind.), both of whom are still publicly undecided on whether they’ll back the Louisiana Republican again.
During the meeting, hardliners aired various grievances about Johnson while laying out a number of process reforms they want enacted. These include assurances on spending cuts, pay-fors and the use of the so-called suspension calendar, among other things. Johnson told reporters he’s “open” to some of these ideas.
Yet the most controversial topic discussed by far was whether Johnson should appoint Roy as chair of the Rules Committee. This has been one of the asks from some of the Freedom Caucus holdouts, we’re told by multiple sources. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) even raised it publicly in an interview on OANN. We wrote about the Roy-for-Rules-Committee-chair push Thursday morning.
But GOP leadership sources insist Johnson isn’t considering making Roy the Rules chair.
Roy has been a huge problem for Johnson and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy since he was added to the Rules panel, which controls what legislation gets on the floor and how it’s considered. Making Roy the chair would be an incredibly risky move for Johnson. It would give Roy gigantic sway over what gets to the floor and spur a backlash from moderates.
Roy was tight-lipped leaving the speaker’s office Thursday, as were other holdouts. The conservatives said they expect to speak with Johnson again before the roll-call vote today. Johnson, however, insisted on multiple occasions Thursday he’d win on the first ballot.
Remember this — for every inch Johnson yields to conservatives, he risks losing trust with the middle of the conference.
The scenarios. We wanted to lay out the three most likely scenarios for Johnson and the House, as well as the internal dynamics driving these potential outcomes.
1) Johnson wins on the first ballot. For much of Thursday, GOP leadership aides and lawmakers – even those who distrust Johnson – told us they thought the Louisiana Republican would win on the first ballot. But that’s far from certain at this point.
The case being made to us was that the opposition to Johnson was pretty tame aside from Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who is absolutely going to vote against Johnson. A source told us that the entire freshman class of House Republicans will vote for Johnson.
The biggest knock against Johnson is that he was unable to force Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden to accede to his demands during divided government. The new governing dynamic for 2025 — Trump in the White House, Johnson as speaker and John Thune as Senate majority leader — will be far different. In reality, whatever Trump says will go. Johnson will be on a very short leash executing that agenda.
Johnson has big plans for the next week. House Republicans are scheduled to gather at Fort McNair in Southwest Washington on Saturday to talk about their plans for reconciliation. The elected leadership has its retreat on Sunday in Baltimore. On Monday, the House will gather to certify Trump’s Electoral College victory.
2) Multiple ballots. This seems within the realm of possibility at this point – something that Johnson’s aides are admitting privately. Think about just how many Republicans are wobbly on Johnson’s leadership: Roy, Boebert, Norman, and Spartz, along with GOP Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.), Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Michael Cloud (Texas), Andy Harris (Md.) and Scott Perry (Pa.).
If just one of them votes with Massie for another named candidate besides Johnson, the speaker can’t win.
There are two ways Johnson can handle losing on the initial vote. Johnson can seek a recess, attempt to cut a deal with his opponents and then try again. Or he can keep plowing through.
But a prolonged floor fight could endanger Johnson’s support from Trump, by far his most important ally. And the longer Johnson hangs out there, the more likely it is that the middle of the conference begins looking for other candidates. So it’s in Johnson’s interest to do everything in his power to wrap things up quickly.
Cutting a deal with his detractors would probably mean Johnson would have to negotiate changes to the rules package, which his team is adamant he isn’t willing to do.
3) A new speaker. The worst-case scenario for Trump and Republicans is that Johnson gets booted. There is no obvious alternative to the Louisiana Republican. If Republicans dump Johnson, tensions between House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) will again burst into public view.
