The Celsius machines are going to need a refill today.
Three key House committees — Energy and Commerce, Ways and Means and Agriculture — are slated to mark up their reconciliation bills, a huge moment for Speaker Mike Johnson and GOP leaders. Energy and Commerce starts at 2 p.m., Ways and Means follows at 2:30 p.m. and Agriculture will begin at 7:30 p.m.
All of the chairs’ marks of these bills are out. Here’s Energy and Commerce, here’s Ways and Means and here’s Agriculture. But these bills could change significantly during the next 12 to 24 hours.
Much of the House Republican Conference is intently watching how Johnson handles this. Every major decision on assembling President Donald Trump’s agenda was delayed until the last minute. Johnson likes to say he is in the consensus-building business.
Yet on issues ranging from health care to taxes, there’s no consensus inside the House Republican Conference on this package. Conservatives think the bill is too weak on cuts to Medicaid and other programs. Blue-state Republicans don’t have a deal on SALT, while moderates worry about the Medicaid changes.
This is going to be a problem over the next two weeks as GOP leaders attempt to squeeze the reconciliation package through multiple committees and across the floor with only a razor-thin margin of control.
And then House Republicans will have to see if – and how – their Senate GOP counterparts change the package.
The wide view. If you’re a corporate lobbyist (or CEO), you made out pretty well in this House Republican tax proposal. The legislation doesn’t create a new corporate SALT cap. It doesn’t close the carried interest “loophole,” handing a big victory to hedge fund managers, private equity executives and their lobbyists.
The bill doesn’t increase the stock buyback tax, which the committee discussed. Key business tax breaks, including for R&D, have been revived for a few years and there’s a strong chance Senate Republicans will make them permanent.
Still, some sectors took massive hits. House Republicans’ repeals of IRA clean energy tax credits were significantly more aggressive than supporters hoped.
The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates the GOP tax bill costs $3.7 trillion in lost revenue between 2025-2034. Ways and Means had between $4 trillion and $4.5 trillion of budget space to work with.
SALT shakeup: House GOP leaders haven’t reached an agreement with blue-state Republicans from New York, California and New Jersey on the state-and-local tax deduction limit. These members are dug in on the issue, which they consider existential for their political careers.
House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) included a $30,000 cap in the tax package limited to people making $400,000 or less. For people making more, it winds down to $10,000. That’s very far from what the SALT Caucus wants.
Blue-state Republicans are making their distaste for the Ways and Means proposal clear. They left a meeting with committee members and House GOP leaders Monday unhappy with the direction of the talks.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said the reconciliation bill, as written, won’t have his support. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said he’s “a hell no for a bill that has a flat $30,000 cap.”
LaLota said Smith “relied on outdated data, drew faulty conclusions and refused to incorporate the needs of the SALT Caucus. There’s no ‘beautiful bill’ if he keeps putting warts on it.”
Ways and Means shared data during the meeting on how many more households in the blue-state members’ districts would benefit from full SALT deductions with a $30,000 cap than the current limit.
Sources involved in the talks said Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is taking a more central role in trying to cobble together a deal.
With so much at stake, Johnson has all but taken over the high-stakes SALT negotiations for leadership. Smith told SALT Caucus Republicans on Monday that he didn’t view negotiating with them as part of his job.
E&C, Ag politics: Energy and Commerce has to get its massive Medicaid spending cuts — more than $700 billion in the health-care section of the committee mark alone — through the panel. Republicans say they’re confident Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) can get the job done. CBO estimates the GOP bill would lead to an additional 13.7 million Americans going uninsured.
Energy and Commerce has three Republicans seeking reelection in tough seats: Reps. Gabe Evans (Colo.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) and Tom Kean Jr. (N.J.). Democrats are salivating over the opportunity to run TV ads accusing them of backing a bill slashing Medicaid funding. Evans already has two challengers in his suburban Denver seat, including former Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo.
And the House Agriculture Committee will vote on Republican-authored cuts to nutrition programs while requiring states to fund a portion of their SNAP benefits.
Vulnerable Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) all sit on the Agriculture panel. Bacon is one of just three Republicans in a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024. Bresnahan could face a rematch with former Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright.
Hardliners. The House Freedom Caucus is putting the onus on GOP leadership to make “very aggressive changes” to the reconciliation package before it comes to the floor. Many conservatives have asked for at least $2 trillion in cuts.
These HFC-backed changes – more Medicaid cuts, a total repeal of IRA clean energy credits and “deficit neutrality” – would have to happen during today’s trio of committee markups or the Rules Committee. Johnson controls the Rules panel, but conservatives have a huge voice there too.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) went on one of his trademark screeds Monday, saying on X that he won’t cave to internal pressure to support the bill, which he seems to think is unserious.
Remember: Johnson can only lose three votes on the floor. And he wants the reconciliation package on the floor next week.
