With three days until the first funding deadline of the Trump era, Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are locked in a high-stakes power struggle with a government shutdown on the line.
Johnson, who relies heavily on President Donald Trump to pass anything, is trying to deliver nearly every House Republican vote for the CR to keep the government open until Sept. 30. At stake isn’t only keeping embattled federal agencies running, but also Trump’s agenda, which Hill Republicans are desperately trying to make progress on. And it comes as the U.S. economy and Wall Street teeter under Trump’s trade war and the DOGE-driven federal layoffs.
Jeffries, in his second term as the House Democratic leader, has gone all in on opposing the funding bill, saying his caucus “will not be complicit in the Republican effort to hurt the American people.”
Johnson has multiple holdouts. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is the only public no, although there are others on the fence. Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) and Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) raised concerns about the measure during a GOP whip meeting on Monday, sources said.
Trump has made calls to undecided House Republicans and will continue to work the phones today, according to sources familiar with his plans.
Trump lashed out at Massie late Monday night on Truth Social for being a no: “HE SHOULD BE PRIMARIED and I will lead the charge against him.” Trump compared Massie to “Liz Chaney [sic], before her historic, record breaking fall [loss].”
Vice President JD Vance will attend the Republican Conference meeting this morning for a final lobbying blitz. OMB Director Russ Vought – a former Hill aide himself – met with GOP lawmakers on Monday night. Vought has been speaking to House Republicans one-on-one about the package.
“Trump is all in,” one House Republican leadership aide told us Monday night. “Members can’t be on the wrong side of this.”
Some of the opposition may be performative. Remember: Several House Republicans opposed giving Johnson another term as speaker in early January but buckled after Trump weighed in. Last month, a number of House Republicans backed the budget resolution only after entreaties from Trump.
But Van Duyne, a former mayor of Irving, Texas, had no problem saying no to Vought Monday evening. In a whip meeting, Van Duyne said she appreciated the time Vought took to walk through the resolution with her over the weekend but didn’t think she could get on board, according to sources in the room.
Yet the House Republican leadership feels unusually confident that they’ll be able to turn these holdouts.
The House Freedom Caucus endorsed the CR in its own statement, giving Republican leaders and the White House a boost.
In some ways, this is a mess of Johnson’s making. Johnson moved the funding deadline to March so he could get elected speaker in January. Now the Louisiana Republican is figuring out how to get out of this situation in one piece.
The minority. The real challenge for Jeffries is whether he can hold Democrats back on the floor with a shutdown on the line and the House Democratic retreat beginning Wednesday in Virginia.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.) and Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrats on the House and Senate Appropriations panels, released their own 30-day CR proposal to keep federal agencies open until April 11. The two senior Democrats say this would give both sides time to find a compromise on FY 2025 spending.
Attendance. As we told you in the PM edition, Democratic absences – and possibly some yes votes – may give Johnson a boost.
As many as five House Democrats could miss the vote. And some Democrats – although only a few – may back the Republican CR. Johnson only has a one-seat margin if all members are present and voting, so any Democratic votes or absences is a boost for his side.
Senate side: Senate Democrats, who repeatedly insisted to us that they were focused on what the House could pass, took a very cautious stance on the CR when asked how they’d vote. With Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) a no, eight Democrats have to vote yes to overcome a filibuster.
Yes, key Senate Democrats trashed the GOP CR as bad policy. But these senators also reiterated they view a shutdown as an outcome no one wants. And they’re not declaring it DOA in the Senate.
“I’m waiting to see what the final version is, until then we’re not gonna make any decisions,” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said.
“Passing a full-year CR risks handing [Trump] a huge slush fund with which to do what he wants in ways that could be harmful to our national security,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said.
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) called the CR “awful.” Just days ago, Warner told us he preferred a CR to a government shutdown. Fellow Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine also slammed the CR, despite the huge number of federal workers in the state.
The bill was drafted with zero Democratic input. That’s a tough pill for many Democrats to swallow. But in the face of a shutdown, some may opt to hold their nose and vote yes even as a majority of the caucus votes against it.
Multiple lawmakers said they’re still holding out hope for a 30-day CR to allow appropriators time to work out an omnibus funding package. Yet that’s only a relevant scenario if House Republicans fail to pass their CR.
