DORAL, Fla. — There is a lot of confidence these days among House Republican leaders. For example: top House Republicans are sure that they can pass their reconciliation bill by early April.
But the only House Republican leader who has the experience to judge the speed with which the chamber can move on Trump’s agenda is House Majority Leader Steve Scalise.
Scalise was in the leadership during President Donald Trump’s last term in the White House, giving him a front-row seat to his party’s struggles to enact the president’s priorities.
During an interview at the House Republican retreat here, Scalise had some useful reminders for us — and perhaps the rest of the GOP conference.
1) Budgets are very hard. In 2017, 22 House Republicans voted against the budget that paved the way for the tax cut bill. And this was after Republicans failed to repeal Obamacare. So even faced with that dire political climate, nearly two dozen GOP lawmakers were willing to buck party leaders on the critical measure.
Remember: By the time Republicans get to passing their budget, they will have a one-seat majority. Any one GOP lawmaker can vote no and sink the measure.
2) How to think about the timeline for reconciliation. Almost to a person, senior House GOP leadership aides think top Republicans are far too bullish about passing a reconciliation package by April.
Scalise won’t quite go there. The majority leader said he thinks Republicans “ought to set an aggressive schedule in, and we need to push ourselves.”
“The country is in a desperate hunger for solutions to the problems that we’re facing right now,” Scalise said. “And a lot of those big problems can get solved in budget reconciliation.”
We pushed Scalise on the timeline, reminding him that it took until December in 2017.
“You won’t wait ‘til December like last time,” Scalise said. “There will be progress along the way.”
3) No red lines. Trump said during his address here Monday night that he wants to bring the corporate rate down to 15%. In 2017, Trump succeeded in lowering the corporate rate from 35% to 21% — even as he pushed Republicans to get it lower.
Scalise wouldn’t bite on whether 15% is realistic.
