Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who will retire from Congress in 42 days, announced the end of her House career Friday night in a manifesto, of sorts, that sounded many of the notes of concern we hear about President Donald Trump’s second term.
The crux of MTG’s message is that Trump and House Republicans are abandoning all of the president’s priorities, falling into complacency and are on the brink of squandering their razor-thin majority.
Let’s dispense with the caveats. MTG has never been representative of the House Republican Conference writ large. She clearly has a bone to pick with Trump and the leadership. MTG may have her eye on the governorship — that chatter picked up again over the weekend. She was also never a fan of Speaker Mike Johnson.
MTG’s four-page note was stinging for House Republicans. Why? Because the message rang true to so many in the House GOP.
In fact, a few other GOP members messaged us over the weekend saying that they, too, are considering retiring in the middle of the term.
Here’s one particularly exercised senior House Republican:
“This entire White House team has treated ALL members like garbage. ALL. And Mike Johnson has let it happen because he wanted it to happen. That is the sentiment of nearly all — appropriators, authorizers, hawks, doves, rank and file. The arrogance of this White House team is off putting to members who are run roughshod and threatened. They don’t even allow little wins like announcing small grants or even responding from agencies. Not even the high profile, the regular rank and file random members are more upset than ever. Members know they are going into the minority after the midterms.
“More explosive early resignations are coming. It’s a tinder box. Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.”
Of course, Johnson’s team points out they have impossibly small margins and believe they are doing what they can with the hand they were dealt.
But the idea that Republicans could lose their majority this Congress is no longer far-fetched. If Johnson were to lose another House Republican in the middle of this term to retirement, death or illness, there’s a decent chance that the GOP can end up in the minority at some point in 2026.
The math. Republicans have 219 seats and Democrats have 213. There’s a special election in Tennessee on Dec. 2 to fill former Rep. Mark Green’s (R-Tenn.) seat. Democrats and Republicans are pouring piles of money into that district, which Trump won by more than 20 points.
If Republicans win, their margin will remain the same after MTG’s retirement.
But Democrats will gain a seat in Houston at the end of January when voters choose the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s (D-Texas) replacement. And on April 16, New Jersey voters will choose Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s replacement. That’s a seat that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by nine percentage points in 2024.
Let’s say Democrats are able to steal the Tennessee seat based on subpar GOP turnout — unlikely but possible — Johnson would have 218 members to Democrats’ 214. Texas and New Jersey would bring Democrats to 216. If any members retire or fall ill, Johnson would be sunk.
House retirements and resignations are common after holidays. How appealing is it to return to the Capitol when the House spends most of its time voting on censure resolutions or meaningless messaging bills?
The calendar. The legislative climate is brutal. Enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies expire at the end of December. Trump is expected to propose a new plan in the coming days that may include an extension of the subsidies so Republicans can come up with their own long-term proposal. This will split the GOP on Capitol Hill. We first reported on this effort last week.
Government funding expires Jan. 30, and House lawmakers already privately acknowledge they will get jammed by the Senate.
Johnson is facing a restive rank and file. Lawmakers have filed discharge petitions on health care, Russia sanctions and, after the recess is over, Republicans and Democrats will likely file one to ban stock trading in Congress.
Discharge petitions are, by nature, a cry of discontent from the rank and file.
It’s gotten so bad that Johnson said he wants to change House rules to make it harder to file discharge petitions. This will never pass. But it does underscore just how frustrated the leadership is with losing control of the House.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed Congress July 3 — 144 days ago. Since then, the House has been wracked by fighting. Redistricting is blowing up in the GOP’s face, as the party faces a significant challenge to its map in Texas and seemingly unmovable state lawmakers in Indiana.
Trump most recently cozied up to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani in the Oval Office, raising questions about whether the GOP can follow up on their plans to run a nationwide campaign against the democratic socialist.
The midterm elections are 344 days away.
