Most K Street leaders predict the GOP’s final reconciliation package will include cuts to key social programs but also believe it will seriously harm Republicans going into the 2026 midterm elections.
Among respondents to our latest Canvass poll, 88% predicted cuts to clean energy tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act; 74% said Medicaid and 72% said the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will face cuts in any Republican reconciliation package.
Republicans are seeking $1.5 trillion in spending reductions. They’re likely to take aim at social safety net programs such as the healthcare program, the food and nutrition program and aspects of the Biden administration’s inflation reduction law.
Sixty-one percent of K Street leaders also thought that Pell Grants, which help under-served families pay for college, will be on the chopping block as well.
On the other hand, about two-thirds of K Street leaders predicted Medicare will be safe from cuts. Just 27% of respondents thought there would be cuts to Medicare, which pays for seniors’ healthcare.
Slashing funding for those popular programs could come back to haunt Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections, K Street leaders who took the survey said. Nearly all (98%) of Democrats and 86% of GOP respondents said cuts to Medicaid would harm the party in 2026. On SNAP, 81% of Democrats and 58% of GOP leaders thought cuts would be harmful to Republicans.
While Republican leaders from both chambers saw momentum last week on their compromise budget plan, multiple Senate Republicans have voiced disapproval of planned cuts to Medicaid.
Senators from some deep-red states that have high populations dependent on Medicaid, such as West Virginia and Alabama, have pushed back on the proposed cuts.
“I have concerns,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) said last week, adding that his state has “a lot of folks” who count on Medicaid for their healthcare.
The predictions on cuts to the healthcare program were bipartisan, with a majority of Democrats (87%) and GOP (61%) respondents saying Medicaid will be slashed.
Similarly, respondents from both parties agreed about SNAP cuts, with 85% of Democrats and 59% of GOP senior K Street leaders saying cuts to the program are likely.
The Canvass K Street was conducted Feb. 27- March 4 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
— Joy Mazur
