A majority of senior staffers in both parties believe Democrats will win the Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The survey was conducted June 3-21 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
According to our survey of Capitol Hill aides, staffers are split by party on who will win in Maryland, Montana, Nevada and Ohio.
Montana and Ohio are highly competitive races that Republicans could win and retake the Senate majority.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is facing off against Republican Tim Sheehy. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is being challenged by Republican Bernie Moreno.
In Arizona, the race to replace independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is underway with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) facing off against either Kari Lake, Mark Lamb, Elizabeth Reye or Dustin Williams. Primary day is July 30.
Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Lake but he has also expressed doubt about her prospects of winning.
Also: Here is the one-pager summing up the results of this month’s Canvass survey. Here is the full poll and the slide deck.
Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
— Robert O’Shaughnessy
