The House and Senate are in recess until September. President Donald Trump is in Washington to start the week. Trump is then scheduled to head to Alaska to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday for a summit over the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may attend as well.
Trump will also make an announcement today about new federal efforts to fight crime in D.C.
Speaker Mike Johnson and a group of House Republicans are in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for an annual big-donor retreat. We reported on some of the speakers last week.
Senate 2026. Senate Republicans will be defending their majority next year amid a relentless Democratic onslaught over Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Fifteen months out from the midterms, Republicans remain the heavy favorites to retain control of the chamber thanks to a good map, despite some high-profile setbacks. Senate Democrats still need to net four seats to reclaim the majority, a huge hurdle.
Recent political shifts have moved several key races in Democrats’ favor, giving the minority party an outside chance to pull off a shocker. GOP Gov. Brian Kemp isn’t running in Georgia, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper jumped in the North Carolina race and Republican infighting in Texas could prove disastrous.
The Big Four:
Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.), the cycle’s most endangered Democrat, is raising loads of money. Kemp is throwing his weight behind former college football coach Derek Dooley, an untested political novice locked in a messy primary with Georgia GOP Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter.
Trump’s team isn’t happy with Kemp for boosting Dooley. Ossoff could squeak out a general election win, but it won’t be easy in a state that went for Trump last November.
Michigan: The Wolverine State is almost the mirror image of Georgia. Republicans lined up behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in 2024. Meanwhile, Democrats have a messy primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) with no clear favorite.
Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) hasn’t cleared the field like Slotkin did last cycle. Stevens is battling against state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and progressive darling Abdul El-Sayed in a primary that won’t be settled until August 2026. Republicans haven’t won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, but Trump carried the state in 2024.
North Carolina: The general election will likely be Cooper against RNC Chair Michael Whatley. Democrats feel great about nabbing a top-tier recruit in Cooper, the popular two-term former governor. Republicans are relieved they’ve all coalesced quickly around Whatley and averted a primary.
Cooper’s impressive electoral track record statewide could make him the favorite, especially because Whatley is so unknown. But Republicans note that North Carolina backed Trump three times in a row. The question is how Whatley — the ultimate political insider — will fare in a statewide race.
Maine: There are tons of unresolved issues in the Pine Tree State, mainly whether Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will run. Mills, 77, is a well-liked executive in a state that has a long history of electing Democrats statewide — except when they’re running against Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).
Collins, 72, has said she intends to run. And she’s raising money. But at a time when the White House is thumbing its nose at Congress and the Appropriations Committee that Collins chairs, this isn’t a guarantee.
Senate GOP leaders believe Collins is the only Republican who can win in Maine. So they’re willing to let Collins freelance when she needs to — like voting against the reconciliation bill and the rescissions package.
The Stretches:
New Hampshire: Trump only lost the Granite State by three points in 2024 while Republicans nabbed the governorship. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) is in a strong position to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Republicans are targeting the state and believe former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown can win.
Minnesota: Republicans could compete in a state where Trump only lost by four points in November. But no viable GOP candidate has emerged so far. On the Democratic side, Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are vying for the nomination in a high-stakes primary.
Texas: Everything in the Lone Star State depends on who wins the GOP primary. If polls are accurate, Attorney General Ken Paxton is the favorite. That would grant Democrats their best opening yet, given Paxton’s scandal-plagued history.
But if Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who’s backed by GOP leadership, wins the primary, Republicans remain favored to hold the solidly red state. 2024 candidate Colin Allred is running again, and state Rep. James Talarico could also jump in.
Ohio: Recent reporting suggests former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is gearing up for another run. Brown lost in 2024 to GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno, but he still out-performed national Democrats and would give Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) a run for his money. Republicans remain heavy favorites.
Iowa: Trump won Iowa by 13 points in November, so any statewide Democratic victory would be a minor miracle. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) might not even run for reelection, however. A number of Iowa Democrats are vying for the nomination, including state Sen. Zach Wahls, outsider Nathan Sage and former congressional candidate J.D. Scholten.
