This is Day 21 of the government shutdown. There’s no solution in sight to this crisis.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that Congress may have no choice but to pass a one-year CR after the government opens up. This would be a massive blow to appropriators in an all Republican Washington.
Chapter infinity of health care wars. Regardless of what happens with the enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies at the heart of this record-breaking funding clash, health care is already playing a huge role in the 2026 Senate landscape. And it’s only going to get larger.
Across Senate battleground states, soaring health-care costs — on top of rising prices for food, housing and electricity — are hammering voters and boosting Democratic hopes that they can cut into the GOP majority.
In Georgia, there are already reports that monthly Obamacare premiums could as much as quadruple, with a deductible of up to $10,000, a massive price shock for Peach State enrollees.
“My constituents are already logging on and seeing that their premiums are gonna be nearly doubled or doubled or more than doubled, and they’ve got to start buying their insurance in a couple weeks,” said Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.), the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection next year.
In Maine, the Bureau of Insurance announced individual marketplace plans will see premiums rise by an average of 24% in 2026. Hikes will average almost 18% on the small employer market.
And in Michigan, another battleground state, Blue Cross’ average rate hike for Obamacare could surpass 18% — and that’s before factoring in the Dec. 31 expiration of the Covid-era enhanced subsidies.
Election Day is still more than a year away, so a lot can change. Plus, it’s the Trump era, which means it’s impossible to declare definitively what will sway voters’ decision-making next November.
Republicans dominate on immigration, and they’ll make sure voters know the tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are all because of them. President Donald Trump is pushing hard on crime by sending the National Guard into major cities even as he plays up culture war issues.
Yet Republicans have already largely lost the messaging war over the OBBB. Massive Medicaid cuts included in the GOP bill were always going to be a big problem for Republicans heading into the midterms. Now, add the Obamacare premiums issue into the mix with spiking health care costs.
Georgia. As Ossoff campaigns for a second term in Georgia, he’s leaning hard into Democrats’ government-funding battle.
Often the most vulnerable senators are looking for an off-ramp in a partisan standoff like this.
But Ossoff has been firmly on board with Democrats’ shutdown strategy, demanding action on health care in exchange for the votes to pass a CR. Months ago, Ossoff was already seizing on the Obamacare cliff to pressure Republicans.
Rep. Buddy Carter (Ga.), one of the GOP contenders to take on Ossoff, said in a statement that it’s Democrats who “broke our health care system.”
Former college football coach and Republican candidate Derek Dooley’s campaign also argued that the current problem is on the Democrats. Dooley noted that GOP leaders have said they’ll debate the Obamacare cliff after Democrats agree to reopen the government.
Maine. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has been bucking her party all year over health care.
Collins pushed the Senate Republican leadership to add a $50 billion rural hospital fund to the OBBB to counter concerns about its Medicaid cuts. Even with that provision in the bill, Collins voted against the GOP reconciliation package.
Now Collins is calling for an extension of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies. She’s been targeted with ads by pro-Democrat groups, more than a year out from Election Day.
Collins said she’s hearing concerns about the Obamacare cliff in Maine. But the veteran senator added that “what I’m most hearing is concern about the shutdown.”
Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who’s challenging Collins, said in a statement that the Obamacare cliff will cause “tens of thousands of Maine people” to suffer higher costs, if not lose coverage entirely.
Graham Platner, another Democratic hopeful, supports Medicare for All.
Michigan. Democrats in the crowded primary for retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-Mich.) seat are targeting GOP candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers over soaring health-care costs.
“We are facing a health care crisis in our country with rising costs and reckless cuts from Donald Trump and RFK Jr. — which millionaire Mike Rogers wants to rubber stamp,” Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) said.
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow is calling for the enhanced Obamacare subsidies to be extended through 2028, the remainder of Trump’s term. McMorrow supports a broader health care overhaul including a public option.
Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, backs Medicare for All and wants to abolish medical debt. El-Sayed is seizing on the shutdown standoff to make that point with a series of health-care focused town halls beginning Wednesday.
The Obamacare factor. As Democrats stake their shutdown fight on the expiring ACA credits, key Republicans say they’re ready to take that battle to voters as a referendum on Obamacare.
“I do think the unaffordability of Obamacare is going to be an issue,” Thune said. “And our candidates, incumbents and challengers, are going to have to be prepared to duke it out.”
“If they want to argue about the failure of Obamacare, if I’m out there on the campaign trail, bring it on,” Thune added.
Also: Senate Republicans are having lunch with Trump in the Rose Garden today.
