To say that Senate Republicans are on edge about what the next 24 hours could look like is an understatement.
The GOP leadership elections are just a day away, and there are some major lingering questions that could impact the outcome.
The first and most obvious is whether one of the candidates — Senate Minority Whip John Thune, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) — will win an endorsement from President-elect Donald Trump. After Trump injected himself into the debate Sunday with a litmus test for the next leader, there’s no predicting what he could do or say that could upend the contest. There will be a candidate forum tonight.
We’ve written extensively on the race. We spoke to Scott on Monday and we wanted to point out a few important dynamics.
Scott responds to online blitz: The online pro-Scott pressure campaign has gotten ugly, with an army of prominent MAGA personalities and Trump confidants launching increasingly aggressive diatribes against Thune and Cornyn, even attacking family members. Some have been threatening individual senators or pushing inaccurate or misleading information about who’s supporting which candidate. GOP senators and aides are incensed about it.
Scott isn’t explicitly encouraging or condoning the social media blitz. But the Florida Republican isn’t distancing himself from it, either. In an interview, Scott told us he “appreciate[s] the fact that our voters give us their feedback.”
“These people are excited Trump won, and they just want to make sure whoever’s going to be the Senate leader is going to be all on board with Trump’s agenda,” Scott said. “They’re comfortable that I’m that person.”
For his part, Scott has declined multiple opportunities to criticize Cornyn and Thune, focusing instead on his pitch to senators — a wholesale revamp of the Senate GOP Conference.
Here’s Scott:
Scott also reiterated his support for the filibuster. The leadership candidates’ deference to Trump’s demand for recess appointments has reignited questions about how Republicans would handle a Trump demand to eliminate the filibuster.
Second-ballot strategy: Most senators and aides we’ve spoken with believe Scott has a relatively low ceiling when it comes to the vote count. If Trump endorses Scott, that could change.
But, for now, preparations are underway for the possibility that Scott is the lowest vote-getter, which would send the race to a second ballot between Thune and Cornyn. The question then becomes who Scott’s backers will gravitate toward. This will decide who will become the GOP leader.
Vance as gatekeeper: Vice President-elect JD Vance can vote in the leadership election if he chooses. We’re told Vance and his team have yet to decide on whether the Ohio Republican will attend the vote.
But Vance has been in close touch with his soon-to-be former colleagues, who view Vance as a gatekeeper of sorts for Trump’s ultimate decision on whether to endorse in the race. As a sitting senator, Vance could have a lot of sway with his fellow GOP senators — and Trump.
