Democrats lean in. It’s Day 9 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to this crisis.
When you take stock of where things stand, it’s not difficult to see why House and Senate Democrats feel good about their strategy — for now.
It’s important to note that Democrats instigated this shutdown. They rejected a “clean” funding proposal and demanded significant and expensive health care policy changes in exchange for their votes.
But as we enter the second week of the standoff, Democrats are nowhere close to buckling. In fact, top Democrats feel like they’re gaining political momentum.
We interviewed Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Wednesday in his Capitol office, where the New York Democrat was as bullish as he’s ever been about his shutdown strategy.
“Every day gets better for us,” Schumer asserted.
“It’s because we’ve thought about this long in advance and we knew that health care would be the focal point on Sept. 30 and we prepared for it … Their whole theory was — threaten us, bamboozle us, and we would submit in a day or two.”
Schumer is right that he’s been able to block the clean CR for much longer than most Republicans — and many House Democrats — thought. After three Senate Democrats peeled off during the first day of floor votes, Schumer has stopped any further defections.
Some of this is because Trump isn’t fully dialed into the funding crisis. The president veered way off-message earlier this week when he said he wants an Obamacare deal without specifying that the government has to reopen first.
What Schumer is banking on is that Trump gets engaged at some point and wants to cut a deal on Obamacare subsidies to reopen the government.
There’s been no real sign of this yet, even as Schumer insists Republicans are “feeling the heat.” Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and many Trump aides remain confident they have the upper hand. Trump is essentially letting Johnson and Thune run the show.
Why Democrats feel good. Trump and top administration officials have threatened to enact mass layoffs, restructure federal agencies and cut benefits during a shutdown. They’ve done none of that up until now. We’ll see what happens at Trump’s Cabinet meeting today.
Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought did cut billions of dollars in federal energy and infrastructure projects in blue states. But that had the effect of stiffening Democrats’ spines.
“Every time they try something, it doesn’t quite work,” Schumer said. “Even the threat of shutting things — ‘We’re gonna close this, we’re gonna close that.’ It’s [reflecting] at least as negative on them as it is on us. I think more so on them.”
The Trump administration said it would try to use tariff revenue to bolster the Women, Infants and Children (WIC) nutrition program, which is in danger of running out of money this week. This would remove a key pain point for the shutdown and make Democrats feel more comfortable dragging it out.
House Democrats are drawing deeper lines in the sand, too. Both House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Massachusetts Rep. Richard Neal, the top Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee, said they could never accept a one-year extension of enhanced premium tax credits for Obamacare.
Jeffries’ declaration, however, puts Schumer in a tough spot. Schumer has pushed for a bipartisan negotiation, which means compromising on the Democrats’ demand of a permanent extension. When we pointed out to Schumer that he hasn’t drawn similar red lines, Schumer responded: “I don’t negotiate in public.”
Inside Schumer’s strategy. Since the shutdown, Schumer has lobbied the top echelon of the Democratic Party to rally to his cause. The New York Democrat has spoken with former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, among others.
Schumer, who caught major flak in March for helping Republicans fund the government, said he’s never had to recharge his signature flip phone more. And while the aforementioned Democrats are important, Schumer is much more concerned with his own caucus. That means trying to ensure he doesn’t repeat the mistakes from March or jeopardize his standing as Senate Democratic leader.
“We knew that this would be a hard fight. It is still a hard fight,” Schumer said, nodding to the pain of a shutdown. “But every day we’re getting better and better as the message sinks in more and more deeply.”
There are plenty of potential pitfalls with Schumer’s strategy. Schumer keeps saying an Obamacare deal can come together quickly — “in a day or two” — to end the shutdown. That assessment ignores the reality that this will be a very complicated, drawn-out negotiation given that wide swaths of Hill Republicans don’t want an Obamacare subsidy extension at all.
Schumer said he’s had zero contact with the Trump administration since the Big Four meeting last week.
But as this showdown drags on and polls show that the public blames the GOP, Trump may grow sick of this and conclude that failing to get a quick deal on Obamacare subsidies will hurt him politically. Here’s Schumer:
“Even the pain that’s caused — the data we have seen and just talking to people, they blame Trump. When things are actually shut down, they blame Trump. When things aren’t happening, they blame Trump. Because he’s in charge. You don’t need a political science PhD to understand they control everything.”
Rising tensions. Another reason Democrats feel the wind at their backs is that Republicans are a bit all over the place.
The House has been out of session now for 20 days. Endangered Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) said Johnson “shouldn’t even think about canceling session for a third straight week.” Johnson will hold an 11:30 a.m. call this morning with House Republicans.
