Within 48 hours this week, the Senate will go from passing a landmark social media bill to voting on a doomed-to-fail tax package that Democrats are using to advance a key election-year message.
It’s a “tale of two Senates,” yet it’s also a microcosm of the entire 118th Congress. There have been bipartisan deals this year on the massive foreign aid package and the TikTok forced-divestiture bill, but also a slew of partisan party-line votes that are only designed to score political points.
And the real intention here — at least on the tax bill — is to help vulnerable Democratic incumbents or force Republicans into a politically uncomfortable position.
We first told you earlier this month that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was considering one of two paths to close out the summer session — messaging votes or legislation that can actually pass. Schumer ultimately chose both.
Tax-a-palooza: Schumer’s decision to tee up the Wyden-Smith tax bill this week is a continuation of what Republicans have dubbed Schumer’s “summer of show votes.” The goal has been to highlight Republicans’ opposition to federal abortion protections, as well as calling them out for derailing the bipartisan border security agreement earlier this year.
The tax bill is unique, though. It got House GOP leadership’s support and 357 votes in that chamber.
But in the Senate, Republican leaders have done everything in their power to block it under the belief that the GOP will get a better deal on tax policy next year when Congress tries to address the expiring Trump tax cuts.
“If we were lucky enough to run the tables and have the trifecta next year, obviously it’s a much better bill,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune told us. “And even if it’s not, you can use the things they’re asking for now as [a] trade.”
Another reason we know this is a show vote is that it’ll take place at the very end of this week — right before the six-week summer recess begins. Of course, there would be several additional procedural steps if the bill were to somehow get 60 votes on Thursday.
Yet the tax bill is somewhat of an odd show vote. It could get backing from several Republicans. And some progressive Democrats in the Senate such as Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have been critical of the bill, saying it’s not a good enough deal for families.
But the timing comes with the child tax credit — Democrats’ priority in the bill — very much in the news.
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the GOP vice presidential nominee, falsely claimed last weekend that Vice President Kamala Harris called to end the child tax credit. Expanding the credit has been a signature policy of the Biden-Harris administration. Republicans, including Vance, also back the CTC. But the GOP generally opposes making the program as expansive or available to people with little or no income as Democrats want.
Schumer is choosing to prioritize the CTC in his messaging on the bill. Here’s how Schumer framed the vote on the Senate floor Monday night:
Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) had a similar message:
Case in point — Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, is also cheering the vote and highlighting its CTC expansion.
The CTC is just the kind of policy Democrats want to tout and run on with a big tax debate looming in 2025.
Social media bills on tap: By this afternoon, the Senate will have passed a legislative package forcing social media companies to do more to safeguard children who use their platforms. And it’ll have done so in a huge bipartisan vote.
As we’ve written, this kind of federal crackdown on Big Tech is unprecedented. The package includes the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) and the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA).
But it can’t be grouped in quite yet with the other bipartisan accomplishments of the last two Congresses. That’s because it’s unclear whether the House will pass it, although Speaker Mike Johnson has spoken positively about the package.
House members started their August recess a week early, and when they return in September, the focus will be on averting a government shutdown at the end of the month.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic sponsor of KOSA, told us he’s optimistic in part because the House doesn’t need several days of floor time to pass legislation like the Senate does.
“The House can vote on something in an hour,” Blumenthal said. “Time is not the issue over there.”
