Senate Republicans’ red lines and warring factions are about to take over the reconciliation debate.
The Senate begins a crucial four-week stretch today as the chamber tries to get the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Act to President Donald Trump’s desk by July 4.
This is a huge moment for Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
The South Dakota Republican has to figure out what mix of changes to the House-passed bill can win 51 GOP votes. And whatever the Senate passes will need to get back through the House, where the Republican reconciliation bill passed 215-214-1.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer vowed in a Dear Colleague on Sunday to fight the effort “with everything we’ve got” and make it as painful as possible for Republicans. Schumer emphasized increased coordination with House Democrats.
Beyond the GOP leadership suite, there are key Republican senators whose names you’ll be hearing a lot of over the next month. Here’s who you need to know.
The budget hawks. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) has been bashing the House-passed reconciliation bill. Johnson has said it doesn’t go far enough to slash federal spending, despite over $1.5 trillion in cuts. Moderates in both chambers will have big problems with deeper cuts.
Johnson isn’t alone among Republicans who want to slash more in federal spending. There’s also Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.). But Johnson is in his own category here, claiming he doesn’t care about political pressures from Trump.
The spending-cut skeptics. This is the counterpunch to budget hawks’ demands. Just like in the House, the Senate has members wary of cutting safety-net programs like Medicaid and SNAP.
Keep an eye on Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who has expressed concern about Medicaid changes. Collins is up for reelection in 2026. Democrats will hammer the GOP over Medicaid cuts on the campaign trail, so Collins will have to tread especially carefully.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is another one to watch. Hawley has been loudly opposed to Medicaid benefit cuts.
The clean-energy crew. The House-passed bill claws back more than $550 billion of clean-energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act.
Four Senate Republicans publicly oppose a total repeal of the credits. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Thom Tillis (N.C.), John Curtis (Utah) and Jerry Moran (Kan.) sent a letter asking for a “targeted, pragmatic approach” to IRA cuts. Tillis is up in 2026, too.
This group could try to tweak the clawbacks in the House GOP’s bill, though that’ll cause friction with hardline conservatives.
The committee chairs. There are 10 Senate committees with reconciliation instructions. One in particular has perhaps the best and worst job in Washington right now.
The Senate Finance Committee has jurisdiction over taxes, the debt limit and Medicaid. That makes Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) critical for where Republicans land on trillions of dollars in tax cuts and reductions to Medicaid spending.
The broker. The House’s thin majority is a problem for the Senate too. Keep an eye on Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a former House member.
Mullin often acts as an informal liaison with House Republicans. He’s also an ally of House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.).
Also: Finance Committee Republicans have their weekly meeting tonight.
