News: Senate Majority Leader John Thune told us on Fly Out Day that he believes Democrats have made the decision to force a government shutdown, a stunning analysis with less than 20 days until the spending deadline.
“I think they see it as politically advantageous to have a shutdown,” Thune said during an interview Thursday in the Punchbowl News Townhouse, referring to Democrats.
“I think their base is clamoring for that. They want a fight with the Trump administration. But they don’t have a good reason to do it. And I don’t intend to give them a good reason to do it.”
Democratic leaders — namely Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have signaled that they will vote against a clean short-term government funding package unless Republicans agree to attach health care policy to the bill.
Democrats have mentioned extending enhanced Obamacare premium tax credits or rolling back elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill as a price for their votes to keep the government open.
Thune told us that there’s no way he would agree to Democrats’ demands on the Obamacare credits in a short-term, clean funding bill, dramatically increasing the chances of a government shutdown on Oct. 1.
Thune said that while he’s open to discussions about extending the policy, “not on a seven-week CR, no.”
The Obamacare tax credits are seen as a lowest-common-denominator ask for Democrats in the funding fight. In reality, the Democratic rank-and-file thinks health care policy isn’t enough of a concession to win their votes.
In the meantime, the Four Corners — the top appropriators in the House and Senate — are nearing a deal on a package of three funding bills alongside a stopgap measure that would keep the entire government open until Nov. 20, just days before Thanksgiving. This could be on the House floor as soon as next week.
Of course, a deal among appropriators and a House vote is for naught if Schumer and Jeffries are demanding major health-care policy changes in return for keeping the federal government open.
Democrats feel like they have no other option than to fight hard, especially given the pressure from their base and what they see as a need to hold the White House accountable. Schumer and Jeffries are paired at the hip on this strategy.
Obamacare tax credits. Like Speaker Mike Johnson, Thune seemed very aware of the politics surrounding the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits.
The Democratic-controlled Congress loosened eligibility requirements for the tax credits during the COVID-19 pandemic as a way to help Americans pay for health insurance. Obamacare already subsidizes insurance for many Americans. But if the enhanced credits expire, as many as four million enrollees may see their premiums spike dramatically.
Thune’s view is that the House and Senate may end up cutting a deal somewhere “in the middle.”
“I suspect at some point the White House is going to weigh in,” Thune added.
“I think this is an issue that will get dealt with in some way. Whether we do anything or don’t … I’m kind of in the camp of, those are plus-ups for Covid. And we’ve got a serious problem. It’s going to cost us over $300 billion to fix this if we stay at those enhanced levels. But we’ve got people who are in different camps on that.”
Various GOP senators, including Susan Collins of Maine and Josh Hawley of Missouri, have voiced support for extending the tax credits.
Thune still doesn’t like tariffs. Thune, who is in his first year as Senate Republican leader, has been a key ally of President Donald Trump. But one area where Thune and Trump don’t see eye-to-eye is on the president’s tariff policies.
Thune represents one of the largest agricultural states in America. He noted that there will be “some real issues in farm country with regard to trade and markets more generally.”
“Representing an ag state, this has very direct consequences, particularly with regard to Asia because that’s such a big market,” Thune said. “Sixty-percent of South Dakota soy beans are exported – and mostly to China. And that market’s now shut down.”
“I think there’s an argument that at some point tariff costs do get passed on in the economy. The administration is arguing vehemently that they’re not going to, and I don’t know at this point who’s going to be right, who’s wrong.”
We talked with Thune about a lot in this second episode of Fly Out Day, including his view on Federal Reserve independence, the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk, national security and the Senate map in 2026.
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