Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced Sunday he won’t run for reelection in 2026, a seismic development that comes just one day after opposing a GOP reconciliation bill built around President Donald Trump’s domestic legislative agenda.
Trump blasted Tillis’ move and called for a primary challenge. Tillis – who praised Trump after the two spoke on Saturday — stunned everyone by announcing his retirement.
The One Big Beautiful Bill — which contains the majority of Trump’s legislative priorities — continues to split the party. Moderates believe it’s too harsh, cuts too much from Medicaid and other popular government programs. Hardline conservatives say it doesn’t phase out green-energy tax cuts quickly enough and doesn’t reduce spending near enough.
The House Freedom Caucus is already railing against the bill. In a post on X Sunday, the hardline conservative group noted that the Senate’s bill accrues “1,705% more” debt than the House version. The Freedom Caucus has more than enough votes to kill this bill in the House. They can also force changes to the package, which would mean sending the bill back to the Senate again.
GOP congressional leaders are trying to get the bill to Trump’s desk by Thursday – a tall task. The Senate will spend all night and early morning voting on amendments in advance of final passage sometime Monday.
The House Republican leadership plans to bring the chamber back into session Tuesday, hoping to pass the bill at some point Wednesday or Thursday. This is an aggressive schedule that they may not be able to keep.
On Tillis. The timing of this announcement shocked the North Carolina Republican’s colleagues, as well as some longtime aides and confidants.
But it’s a reflection of the iron grip Trump has on the party. It shows once again that many Republicans believe it’s better to leave than get crossways with Trump and the MAGA base.
Yet it’s been an open secret that Tillis has been waffling in private about whether to run again. Tillis acknowledged Sunday that over the last year, he hasn’t “exactly been excited” about seeking a third term. Tillis also said his brand of politics — seeking compromise and thinking independently — is out of style in Washington.
“In Washington over the last few years, it’s become increasingly evident that leaders who are willing to embrace bipartisanship, compromise, and demonstrate independent thinking are becoming an endangered species,” Tillis said in a lengthy statement announcing his decision.
Trump posted that he was looking to back a primary challenge to Tillis after the North Carolina Republican voted against a procedural motion on Saturday night. Tillis had been warning in recent days that the bill’s cuts to Medicaid would decimate his state’s Medicaid system and result in significant electoral losses for Republicans in 2026, as we scooped.
Tillis viewed the reconciliation bill as a litmus test for whether Senate Republican leadership would support him if he operated with an independent streak in his third Senate term, according to a source familiar with his thinking.
After it became clear how damaging the reconciliation bill’s changes to Medicaid would be for North Carolina and Senate Republican leadership rebuffed his concerns, Tillis made up his mind to retire.
In his statement, Tillis said he looks forward to “having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit and representing the great people of North Carolina to the best of my ability.”
Tillis has long drawn ire from Trump-aligned lawmakers, consultants and media personalities who view him as insufficiently loyal to Trump. That sentiment intensified last year when Tillis went toe-to-toe with those in his party — including then-Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) — over an aid package for Ukraine.
We scooped recently that Tillis had enlisted a number of Trump-aligned consultants and pollsters for his reelection effort even as there were concerns about his viability in a GOP primary. No Republican had come forward yet to challenge Tillis, which gave Senate GOP leaders even more confidence about his ability to get through a primary and win in a state that Democrats are targeting aggressively in 2026.
There will likely be a number of Republicans who take a look at this seat. Some Trump figures have eyed RNC Chair Michael Whatley, the former chair of the state party. Others in the president’s orbit prefer Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.). Harrigan is a freshman House Republican who took former Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R-N.C.) seat. Harrigan is a graduate of West Point.
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson could also be in the mix. Hudson would almost certainly have to relinquish his role as NRCC chair if he chose to run. Lara Trump, the president’s daughter in law, has considered public office in the past. She is a native of the Tar Heel State.
Rep. Tim Moore (R-N.C.), the freshman who previously served as speaker of the House in Raleigh, is also taking a look at the race.
Also, former Rep. George Holding (R-N.C.) could consider it. He represented the vote-rich Raleigh media market. Holding works at Blackstone and is on the board of the Trump Media and Technology Group.
Senate Democrats are aggressively courting former Gov. Roy Cooper, who is popular and retired in 2024 after serving two terms. If you are a GOP recruiter, you want a strong candidate that gives Cooper pause. With high name ID and a strong fundraising base, the former governor will start the race as the front-runner.
But Cooper is on the fence about a Senate run. Republicans’ easiest path to keep the seat is to try to keep Cooper out of the race with a big-name recruit.
So far, the only major Democratic candidate in the race is former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), who said in a statement that “no matter which MAGA loyalist Donald Trump hand-picks to run in North Carolina, I’m the Democrat who’s ready to take them on and win.” Nickel has strong ties to the deep-pocketed crypto sector.
But many Democrats are betting that Cooper joins the race.
It’s important to remember that Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008. The state voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024. But it’s hard to imagine a better pickup opportunity than an open seat in a purple state in the midst of the second Trump term.
OBBB timeline. The Senate reading clerk has just wrapped up its reading of the reconciliation package.
Democrats will have 10 hours of debate time, followed by a vote-a-rama beginning sometime in the early morning timeframe. That would put a final passage vote at some point Monday.
As always, there has been some drama as the Senate winds toward the vote.
Senate Republicans have refused Democrats’ request for a bipartisan meeting with the parliamentarian on using the current policy baseline to ignore the cost of extending many tax cuts, as we scooped this morning. Republicans say there is “no need to have” the meeting because Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has “the authority to set the baseline.”
“There is nothing to debate and we consider this matter settled,” a GOP Budget Committee spokesperson said.
Democrats are challenging the move and forcing a vote on the Senate floor.
Also, the Congressional Budget Office estimated today that the reconciliation bill will increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade.
