President-elect Donald Trump will meet with Senate Republicans tonight on Capitol Hill.
GOP leaders are hoping the confab gets them closer to a concrete plan to advance Trump’s agenda on border security and tax cuts, even as the president-elect continues to play both sides of the one-bill versus two-bill debate on reconciliation.
Senate Republican leaders want the internecine dispute to end in order to move forward on crafting a budget reconciliation bill, the legislative vehicle that will carry the bulk of Trump’s priorities.
GOP senators are anxious to hear directly from Trump so they can get started on reconciliation — “end this charade,” in the words of one Republican senator.
The question of whether to accomplish these goals through one or two bills may seem unimportant. Yet the longer it takes for Republicans and Trump to get on the same page, the less likely it is that Trump will notch the big early legislative win he craves. Eight years ago, the Senate had already passed a budget resolution — the first step in the process — before Trump even took office.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Trump “is going to have to be” more forceful, adding: “President Trump gets MVP status for solving the speaker vote. And we’re going to need him to play MVP on getting these bills done.”
Others, however, think Trump’s waffling means Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson should work it out among themselves.
“I don’t know why this is such a big deal,” said a frustrated Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.). “We’re going to work the will of the chambers. It’s that simple.”
Which brings us to one of the Republicans at the center of everything – Thune.
The Thune Way: Republican senators describe the 64-year-old Thune (his birthday was Tuesday) as an open and honest communicator who tries his best to make everyone happy. Thune’s watchword is deference. This isn’t former Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.
Yet at some point, Thune is going to have to make decisions that’ll make GOP senators — or more importantly, Trump — unhappy.
Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) told us Thune “has the ability to be assertive without being heavy-handed,” a skill he believes will help Trump be successful. Having served as GOP whip for the last six years, Thune knows the conference well. He also has a direct line to Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance.
But what Thune lacks is the same type of relationship with Trump that Johnson enjoys. Johnson has been much more willing to make constant trips to Mar-a-Lago to stay on the president’s radar.
Thune acknowledged on NBC’s “Meet the Press” last weekend that his relationship with Trump is “evolving” but noted their goals and incentives are aligned. Thune also has a conference that runs the gamut from MAGA firebrands to anti-Trump moderates. And the South Dakota Republican has a personal style that’s nothing like Trump’s.
Thune seems to believe that his preferred two-bill strategy for reconciliation is still possible, but he’s mindful of Johnson’s political realities. It’s why Thune isn’t publicly trashing the one-bill argument, telling us on Tuesday that he wants the meeting tonight to be about “what’s the best path forward for implementing [Trump’s] agenda.”
At the same time, the pair has to navigate looming deadlines on government funding and the debt limit, two areas in which their strategic preferences may be at odds.
Johnson has said he wants to address the debt limit as part of reconciliation, but there are real doubts about whether House Republicans will be able to pass any reconciliation package that includes a debt-limit boost, no matter what’s in the rest of the legislation.
Government funding is also a big challenge. The current CR expires on March 14. There’s no agreement on how to finish the FY2025 funding bills, while Trump is promising significant spending cuts to offset tax cuts.
Spending cuts come with a political price, however, one that Republican moderates may balk at if party leaders go too far.
Noms latest: There will be several confirmation hearings for Trump’s Cabinet picks next week. Very few of those nominees will be ready for Senate floor action on Inauguration Day. Even fewer will actually get confirmed on the afternoon of Jan. 20.
Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are already in talks over who could be confirmed on Trump’s first day in office. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the secretary of state nominee, is seen as the likeliest, according to leadership sources in both parties. But it’s unclear who — if anyone — makes the list after that.
Senate Republicans can only confirm nominees on Inauguration Day if all 100 senators agree to a quick vote. Absent that, the nominees would need to go through regular order, which takes several days.
Senate GOP leaders also want to prioritize national security nominees, but as we noted last week, those are some of Trump’s most controversial picks. And even if any of those are ready by Jan. 20, it’s difficult to see Democrats agreeing to fast-track their confirmation votes.
Other Trump nominees, such as former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii) and Pam Bondi, are facing paperwork-related delays that could push their hearings back a few days.
But paperwork delays won’t dictate the outcomes here. Bondi is likely to be confirmed, while Gabbard’s prospects will be determined largely by the contents of her FBI backgrounder and how she handles any upcoming confirmation hearing.
