The Senate is in session this week, the House is on recess (and Senate staffers are so jealous). President Donald Trump is in Scotland today, where he’ll meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Let’s talk about three things this morning — appropriations, nominations and the economy. It’s going to be a big week on all three fronts. There’s other huge news out there — the latest twists and turns in the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, including Ghislaine Maxwell’s talks with the Justice Department, as well as possible new congressional maps in Texas.
1) Appropriations: Senate leaders hailed it as a minor breakthrough last week when senators voted overwhelmingly to begin debate on the FY2026 MilCon-VA bill, which came out of the Appropriations Committee with strong bipartisan support. But the issue still remains whether they can pass the bill and, if so, how long will it take.
The proposed MilCon-VA bill would increase spending by about 4% from last year thanks to a deal between Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the ranking Democrat. It also includes lots of earmarks, something appropriators want badly.
We scooped Thursday that Senate Majority Leader John Thune wanted to add the Agriculture and Commerce-Justice-Science bills to MilCon-VA as part of a broader package, but that was rejected by a half-dozen GOP senators. Thune tried the same with different funding bills included in a package, but is running into the same result.
Now, GOP leaders need to figure out whether there’s a path forward. That could mean promises of amendment votes. It could also mean a threat to suspend the rules and move forward with a minibus package despite objections. This rarely-used procedural method would ultimately require 67 votes. Collins was concerned about this approach when it was tried in 2023.
But this is a whole new set of circumstances for Collins who, as we scooped, accused a conservative senator of sexism last week over his frequent criticisms of her efforts to seek a bipartisan appropriations process.
Thune wants to pass as many funding bills as possible before Sept. 30 — not only to call Democrats’ bluff, but also to push the House to take up some of them. This could limit the impact of a shutdown or CR.
One more point: OMB Director Russ Vought is still warning that the White House may do “pocket rescissions” before the end of the fiscal year (rescind funds that haven’t been spent by the Sept. 30 deadline). There’s still talk of another rescissions package covering education funding, too. Either or both of these moves would destroy chances of a spending deal, meaning another CR or a shutdown.
2) Nominations: Thune has already teed up several nominees for votes this week, and more are coming. On top of that, we expect Thune to dangle a package of nomination votes to Democrats later this week that, if confirmed quickly, would spare senators from staying too long into August.
We don’t expect Democrats to take this deal. The party has been in an obstructive posture since Trump’s return to the White House, which is why not a single Trump nominee has been confirmed by unanimous consent.
GOP senators have already been told to plan for weekend votes. But beyond that, it’s unclear how long the Senate goes into August. It depends on how many nominations Thune pushes and how cooperative Democrats are feeling.
Senate Republican leaders are looking to Trump to get a sense of which nominees he wants prioritized. There are 144 nominations on the executive calendar awaiting confirmation. We delved into that group last week.
Two GOP senators who have spoken with Trump recently told us that the president remains fixated on diplomatic nominees, particularly his ambassador picks, as we first reported back in May. There are more than two dozen ambassadors awaiting confirmation.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has sent nominations to the floor at a record pace and Thune has moved a bunch. But Trump wants it to go faster, and he’s constantly in Foreign Relations Committee Chair Jim Risch’s (R-Idaho) ear about it.
3) Economy: Wednesday will have new data on U.S. economic growth – the “advance” Q2 GDP estimate from the Commerce Department – plus the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rates. Following Trump’s unprecedented tour of the Federal Reserve’s building site tour last week with Fed Chair Jay Powell – which the president openly admitted was part of his pressure campaign for lower interest rates – this will be even bigger news than usual.
Trump’s latest round of tariffs is also supposed to kick in on Aug. 1. Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union on Sunday night.
On the GDP front, remember that Q1 showed the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5%, so Wednesday’s announcement is highly anticipated, especially as experts suss out the impact of Trump’s trade wars. Estimates for Q2 range from 1.7% growth to 2.4%.
All this makes the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and Powell’s subsequent presser must-see TV. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady but signal a rate cut in September. Trump won’t be happy if that’s the case. Inflation ticked up last month, which worries policymakers.
New: Problem Solvers’ Trump asks. The House’s Problem Solver Caucus has a new letter to Trump from co-chairs Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) asking the president to work on immigration reform, permitting reform and the national debt.
