This is Day 15 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to the crisis.
House members are AWOL during this huge government-funding fight thanks to Speaker Mike Johnson, but there’s been an absolute deluge of action on the redistricting front.
The redistricting wars are the biggest story of the 2026 midterms as both parties race to draw as many favorable new seats as permitted under state and federal law. These power struggles between local politicians, congressional leaders, courts and the White House are playing out in a dozen states, as well as the halls of Congress.
The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today for a second time in a Louisiana redistricting case that could have huge implications for the 1965 Voting Rights Act and minority representation in Congress. The Congressional Black Caucus is holding a press conference on the case — Louisiana vs. Callais — this afternoon.
Let’s break down what’s happened in the past few days, state by state:
Illinois. We reported in Tuesday’s PM edition that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is making an aggressive late push to get Illinois lawmakers to pass a new congressional map during the next few weeks.
This is a power play by Jeffries, who has personally lobbied Illinois legislative leaders and worked to get the delegation on board with a map that nets Democrats one seat by drawing out Republican Rep. Mary Miller.
Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker is also supportive of adding more Democratic seats.
But it’s a big gamble. Illinois is already heavily gerrymandered and there’s a risk of potentially putting Democratic incumbents at risk by spreading out their voters.
“My comment right now is, ‘I love the district that I serve in, and I don’t want to see my district change,’” Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) said.
The Illinois legislature will need to introduce a map soon because the candidate filing deadline is Nov. 3.
California. Democrats are feeling exceptionally optimistic about Proposition 50, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ballot measure to pause the state’s redistricting.
Democrats’ spending advantage in support of Prop 50 has swelled to $40 million on TV. Republicans have basically given up, going dark on air this week.
If Prop 50 passes, California’s new map gives Democrats up to five pickups. It’s crucial to Democrats to help neutralize the GOP’s new map in Texas, which would yield Republicans as many as five seats.
North Carolina. Tar Heel State Republicans announced Monday they’d redraw their map this fall. The goal is to nix one Democratic seat. Thanks to a series of court orders, North Carolina has had a new congressional map nearly every cycle for the last decade.
The N.C. delegation is currently 10 Republicans to four Democrats. We’d heard initially that Republicans were considering an aggressive map designed to elect 12 Republicans and two Democrats. But now it seems likely Republicans plan to draw out Democratic Rep. Don Davis, according to sources familiar with the plans.
Indiana. Vice President JD Vance’s visit to the Hoosier state on Friday is spurring more conversations about redistricting. Right now, all eyes are on Republican state legislators.
GOP Gov. Mike Braun is inclined to call a special session to advance a new map in the coming weeks, according to sources familiar with his thinking. But backers of the effort are still trying to shore up support from Indiana GOP state senators and House members.
Time is ticking for Braun to convene the special session in November. But the White House has been heavily invested in this effort. The GOP could try to pick up two red seats here, making it a state with more opportunity than some of Republicans’ other options.
Maryland. Maryland’s House delegation is currently seven Democrats to one Republican — House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris. A number of Harris’ Democratic colleagues want to make a map that’s eight to zero.
Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore and Maryland House Speaker Adrienne Jones (D) both would like to redistrict, but Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) isn’t sold on it yet. There’s no decision on a special session at this time. Otherwise, Free State lawmakers don’t convene again until mid-January.
Utah. Republicans have launched a last-ditch effort to stop a court-ordered redraw from taking effect in 2026. A new map could net Democrats one seat, maybe even two. But Republicans can potentially thwart the map if they can collect tens of thousands of signatures by mid-November.
If they reach the signature threshold, the map passed by Utah’s legislature will be placed on the ballot and won’t take effect this cycle.
Supreme Court. What’s left of the Voting Rights Act is on trial today at the Supreme Court. An eventual ruling in this case could have a massive ripple effect on congressional maps across the Deep South and minority representation in the House.
SCOTUS is rehearing this challenge to Louisiana’s map, specifically whether the state legislature erred when it added a second majority-minority seat. A broad ruling is certainly possible and could mean the end of Section 2 of the VRA.
We’ll get a better sense of what the justices are thinking by their questions. Between six and 10 Democratic seats could be at risk under a broad ruling, especially in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Georgia and South Carolina. But it gets difficult to draw too many more GOP-favored seats than that because of demographics and parochial politics.
There is some good news for Democrats. Even if a ruling comes in the next few months, it would likely be too late to affect the midterms.
