Welcome back to Washington, everyone. And to members and senators returning to the Hill this week, we can’t wait to see you! We’re sure you feel the same way about us. Punchbowl News is back to our regular three-editions-per-day schedule.
September ushers in a critical period for President Donald Trump and the Big Four congressional leaders — Speaker Mike Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
There are a bunch of big issues at play in the coming weeks, including government funding, Trump’s “crime emergency” and immigration crackdowns, tariffs and trade wars, the state of the U.S. economy, the future of the Federal Reserve, Jeffrey Epstein, Gaza and Ukraine. We’re going to focus this morning on the looming government-funding crisis.
In 28 days, funding for federal agencies expires. Both chambers are out the week of Sept. 22 for Rosh Hashanah. That leaves just 14 legislative days for Congress and the White House to avert a shutdown.
Right now, a potential government shutdown seems more likely than not. And if there isn’t a shutdown, federal agencies could limp along on a series of short-term funding bills — continuing resolutions — throughout this year and next, giving Trump and White House officials even more sway over federal spending.
A CR will be needed to avoid an Oct. 1 shutdown because there’s no way Congress will pass 12 spending bills by then. How long does this initial CR last? Mid-November? Mid-December? Will there be a “hybrid” CR — some full-year bills plus a CR for everything else? What about a year-long CR?
A year-long CR would be devastating for the House and Senate Appropriations panels. Yet Trump can live with a CR at current funding levels. Remember, the White House got new defense, border security and veterans’ money in the One Big Beautiful Bill. The White House is already saying it wants a clean CR while Congress tries to reach a broader deal.
The House and Senate are writing their FY2026 spending bills at two very different funding levels. In fact, House GOP leaders are more in line with Trump’s proposed cuts to social programs, while Senate Republicans are seeking bipartisan funding deals with Democrats.
Meanwhile, the White House announced it was unilaterally rescinding nearly $5 billion in foreign aid last week via a “pocket rescission,” a move that even Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) called “unlawful.” Yet it appears that Republicans are doing nothing to stop it, and Democrats can’t. This is on top of the nearly $9 billion rescissions package Republicans passed in July.
The Labor-HHS subcommittee of the House Appropriations panel will hold a markup today on the FY2026 proposal from GOP appropriators. The draft, released Monday night, calls for huge cuts to the HHS, Labor, and Education departments. Democrats are already blasting the measure.
The Schumer question. For Schumer and Senate Democrats in particular, the issue now becomes whether they’re willing to force a government shutdown and what their demands will be. In order to avoid a March-like debacle, Schumer and Jeffries will need to agree on an actual strategy. This was their problem back in March.
In a Dear Colleague letter out this morning, Schumer said he and Jeffries “are aligned on our shared priorities for September.” Schumer argued that Democrats’ cooperation on bipartisan appropriations bills before Congress left for the August recess shows they want to keep the government open, adding that Republicans should reject Trump’s trampling of Congress’ Article I powers to avert a shutdown.
Senate Democrats also spent August laying the groundwork to make the funding fight all about health care, holding more than 275 events in August to hammer this message.
Yet fault lines are already emerging that will put pressure on Schumer. Progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) say Democrats shouldn’t help Republicans fund the government unless they reverse the Medicaid cuts from the reconciliation bill. That’s not going to happen.
There’s some cautious optimism about another health care-related demand, however. Obamacare premium tax credits are expiring soon. Democrats’ theory is that Republicans would be willing to negotiate an extension because they wouldn’t want to see rising health care costs right before the midterms.
Senate rules changes. It’s about to get a lot easier for the Senate to confirm Trump’s nominees — and those of future presidents, for that matter.
Senate Republicans are on track to trigger the so-called “nuclear option” as they look to beat back a historic campaign by Senate Democrats to slow-walk Trump’s nominees.
Several options are under consideration but there’s particular interest in a proposal that would allow senators to vote on up to 10 nominations simultaneously if they were approved by the same committee.
Based on a 2023 Democratic effort, this “en bloc” confirmation proposal would dramatically speed up the process and help clear the backlog of more than 140 presidential picks awaiting floor action.
Republicans could get creative, too, by allowing more than 10 nominations or dropping the requirement that all come from the same committee.
We also expect Senate Republicans to continue dangling the prospect of recess appointments as a way to pressure Democrats on nominations. Yet even some Senate Republicans are uneasy about this option.
