House and Senate Republicans are gearing up to move straight from Nov. 5 to their leadership elections, a quick turnaround as numerous races across the country could still be undecided.
Senate Republican leadership formally announced Tuesday that their internal party election will be conducted on Nov. 13. And House Republican leadership has scheduled its candidate forum for Nov. 13 at 9 a.m., with their election at 2:30 p.m.
Oddly enough, House Republicans will conduct the leadership election at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill, not in the Capitol or the Longworth Building. Senate Republicans are very likely to hold their elections in the Old Senate Chamber, the traditional site.
Senate side. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s historic run as Senate GOP leader is ending soon. Now the issue is who will replace him, and how many votes they’ll have in the next Congress.
Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) are all running for the post. Thune — currently the minority whip — is seen as the frontrunner, but the outlook for this race is unclear. Most GOP senators have withheld any public endorsement so far.
Details of the election process still have to be worked out. Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso — who is unchallenged in his bid for whip — will oversee the proceedings.
We expect a wide-ranging discussion involving Thune, Cornyn and Scott. This could include a review of proposals from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) to dramatically rein in the power of the GOP leader. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has led the charge against the Lee plan. We’ll see how far conservatives can push this issue.
The other key question is what happens in contested Senate elections and who will be allowed to vote. Only senators who will be part of the 119th Congress can cast votes, but GOP leaders hope to have all the candidates in undecided races come to Capitol Hill that week.
Which leads us to the question of what will happen to Sen. J.D. Vance (Ohio), the Republican vice presidential candidate. If the White House race still isn’t decided by then — a nightmare — will Vance vote in the Senate leadership elections? Vance would be part of the next Congress if he and Donald Trump lose. We’ll see what happens.
There’s one other key leadership race — who will replace Barrasso as Senate GOP Conference chair. Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) are running. Cotton is favored, but he could also end up serving in a Trump administration.
House side. Let’s start with this question for House Republicans: Can they even hold their leadership elections beginning Nov. 13?
House GOP leaders — most importantly Speaker Mike Johnson — believe they can.
Yet if 2022 is any indication, the most competitive House races in California will take a long time to be called. For instance: Rep. John Duarte’s (R-Calif.) win over Democrat Adam Gray wasn’t official until the first week of December.
A large percentage of Californians vote by mail and the process to count those votes takes significant time in the state.
House election experts on both sides expect the universe of outcomes to range anywhere from a GOP majority of five votes to a Democratic majority of five votes. That intensely small range of outcomes means that the critical California House races — in the 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st and 45th — might be the difference. There are also tight races in the Golden State’s 47th and 49th districts.
It’s still likely, however, that we will know a good deal about the House map on election Night. Consider this: there are two competitive seats — the 2nd and 7th Districts — in Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m.
Polls close at 7:30 p.m. in North Carolina’s 1st District, Ohio’s 9th District and Ohio’s 13th District. Polls close at 8 p.m. in Maine, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where there are plenty of toss-up races.
If Democrats defend Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.), then the path to a GOP majority significantly narrows.
The House GOP is also going to consider changes to the party’s rules.
One such proposed change, suggested by the leadership, would seek to clarify who controls the House if a speaker is booted out of the job. Here’s the change:
This isn’t an earth-shaking move, but it does reflect the reality that the GOP deposed a speaker this Congress and Republicans are looking to clarify their rules to reflect that.
The rules also mandate that the chair announce the vote total for leadership elections — something that’s not currently in writing but rather is at the discretion of the chair.
Here are the proposed changes and the explanations. These documents were sent to GOP lawmakers this week.
