Managing — and minimizing when necessary — the daily political maelstrom that is President-elect Donald Trump will fall on the shoulders of two GOP lawmakers come early January: Speaker Mike Johnson and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
Let’s take a moment to review what’s occurred this week alone. Trump nominated two Cabinet-level candidates who may not get confirmed — former Reps. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) as director of national intelligence and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) as attorney general. Gaetz resigned from the House just two days before a damaging ethics report was set to be released.
Trump then tapped Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic who questions a wide variety of scientific truisms, to be secretary of Health and Human Services. And Trump nominated his personal attorneys to be top ranking Justice Department officials.
How’s that, Mr. Speaker and Mr. Leader?
The 63-year-old Thune and 52-year-old Johnson are an unlikely pair.
Thune — who first arrived on Capitol Hill in the mid-1990s — will mark two decades in the Senate come January. He’s held a wide variety of leadership positions and chaired the Senate Commerce Committee. Thune is a deal-cutter who has a natural way with senators.
Johnson, on the other hand, came to Washington in 2017 — the same year as Trump — and became speaker after Republicans ousted Kevin McCarthy. He has no major legislative accomplishments to speak of. Lawmakers like him, but they don’t love him. And that seems to suit everyone just fine.
We’re going to SWOT this morning, running down the profile of the “Mike-and-John” duo as it relates to Trump’s return to office.
Strengths. Thune and Johnson — who are both low-key and affable — have gotten to know each other during the past year. The pair spoke frequently as they navigated government funding crises and other legislative priorities. Johnson’s House Republican leadership team even helped advance bills that were priorities for endangered Senate Republicans.
The last several Republican leaders were larger-than-life personalities. Johnson and Thune, in many ways, have yet to define themselves as the dominant figure in their respective conferences, despite just winning leadership elections. Furthermore, Johnson and Thune are much more aligned with Trump than Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell were in 2017.
The difference between Thune and Johnson lies in their respective conferences. Thune has a hefty base of support, having just won a three-way race to become the first new Senate GOP leader in 18 years. Thune has lots of allies and will use them to his advantage. Johnson’s base is among hardline conservatives — and Trump — but most in the conference give him a break because being speaker is a thankless job. The day-to-day legislative grind plus the heavy political travel schedule are brutal.
Weaknesses. Thune and Johnson — but Thune especially — will find themselves caught between what Trump wants and what they can deliver a notoriously impatient president.
Trump’s nominee picks show he’s going full “MAGA mandate” from Day One. Trump isn’t worried about what the “Republican Establishment” thinks of him. Trump is the Establishment now. He doesn’t care about the media or Democrats either. And Trump has already raised the prospect of bypassing the Senate’s confirmation process via recess appointments if he can’t get his nominees confirmed.
For his part, Johnson can’t win a speaker vote without Trump’s support.
In sum, Thune and Johnson are vessels for Trump, his policies and his wants. Thune and Johnson are hostages as much as party leaders. The best hope for Johnson and Thune is that they can stay together.
But it’ll be difficult for them to stay unified. The House is a different beast than the Senate. Even with its slim majority, the House is far more aligned with Trump. The Senate has some free agents while the House will have a handful of Republican outliers that will grunt and groan, but they’re sure to line up with Trump when needed.
Opportunities. This is a turning point for Thune when it comes to his relationship with Trump, which has improved appreciably since 2021.
Thune has a rare chance to chart a new course for the Senate Republican Conference, which has struggled at times to remain unified as several Trump-aligned freshmen have replaced veteran senators.
For Johnson, serving as speaker under a Democratic president was child’s play. He has to manage everyone from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). Johnson will be under tremendous pressure from conservative hardliners to do everything Trump says and from moderates to translate Trump’s screeds into legislative reality.
Threats. Anything and everything Thune and Johnson say and do may be subject to a missive from the president, most likely on social media. And it won’t stop.
For Thune, avoiding criticism of the nominees is paramount.
So far, Thune is staying on message, saying the Senate will process Trump’s nominees through the regular procedures. In the meantime, Senate Republicans seem to be searching for ways to derail some of Trump’s picks. Thune will get the blame if they do.
