The political winds in Washington whip around wildly — especially with President Donald Trump in the White House.
Since Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law four months ago, Republicans have seemed adrift. Trump has his own agenda; he’s consumed with foreign affairs, immigration and remodeling the White House, among other things. The president seems to view Congress as a nuisance he’d rather avoid than have to deal with.
Whether it’s tariffs, attacks on alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean, or unilaterally freezing congressionally appropriated funding, Congress oftentimes seems like an afterthought for the Trump administration.
Instead, Trump has found a rhythm on the global stage, jetting to the Middle East to celebrate a ceasefire in Gaza and traveling throughout Asia during the now 37-day government shutdown.
On Wednesday, after his party suffered a drubbing at the ballot box, Trump implored Senate Republicans to blow up the filibuster “this afternoon.”
Trump directly contradicted GOP congressional leaders in declaring that the shutdown has been worse for Republicans than Democrats. The president then jetted off to Miami for a speech. Needless to say, Senate Republicans largely ignored Trump’s demands and went about their day.
As Trump has grown more enamored with international affairs, his domestic agenda has suffered — and that’s now impacting Capitol Hill. This worrisome dynamic for Republicans has come into sharper focus during the last 48 hours.
1) The election. If there’s one truism about U.S. politics, it’s that the media overhypes the results of off-year elections while officials on the losing side underplay them.
On Wednesday, Speaker Mike Johnson explained that “blue states and blue cities voted blue” while asserting that House Republicans would expand their majority in the midterm elections. Senate Majority Leader John Thune similarly downplayed the outcome and blamed lackluster Republican candidates.
We’ll dive deeper into the warning signs for Republicans coming out of Tuesday night down below. But just look at the exit polls. In Virginia, 59% of independents voted for Democrat Abigail Spanberger for governor. Nearly half of Virginia voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the commonwealth — and they clearly don’t feel Republicans are doing enough to address their needs.
The entire state of Virginia is trending away from Republicans. In New Jersey, Democrats flipped Hispanic voters, a key bloc for Trump in 2024.
Some Republicans acknowledged this should be a wake-up call for 2026, when affordability and the cost of living will continue to be front and center.
“A lot of people are hurting and the Republicans can’t let that just pass them,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) told us. “Because if it does, there’ll be a bad day coming. Last night was an awakening for a lot of folks, and if we didn’t pick up on it then, then we’re not gonna pick it up.”
Justice added that if Republicans “gloss over” the growing economic hardship facing Americans, “it’ll be a bad day in the midterm.”
In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom pushed through Prop 50, a ballot initiative that could wipe out as many as five GOP congressional seats in the state. Republicans barely even pretended to compete in the Golden State, allowing Democrats to dominate the airwaves en route to a 27-point victory.
2) The shutdown and a Trump chasm. Trump and Hill Republicans are now in completely different places on the political impacts of this seemingly endless shutdown.
Johnson and Thune have been making the case incessantly that Democrats are to blame for the spending impasse, hyping up the expiration of premium Obamacare tax credits as a way to curry favor with a leftward-drifting Democratic base.
But at a breakfast on Wednesday, Trump trampled all over that message, saying the election results showed that the shutdown has been “worse for us than for [Democrats].”
It was a headsnapping comment that threw Hill Republicans back on their heels. And it led many in the top rungs of the GOP leadership to wonder whether Trump would try to cut a deal with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Despite what the GOP congressional leaders say, most Trump aides recognize that skyrocketing health care premiums will hurt Republicans. It would be Trump who has to take the lead on a deal like that, which could cause further angst with Hill Republicans
3) Tariffs. Trump’s tariff regime — a hallmark of his first 10 months in office — is now at risk of collapsing.
Three conservative Supreme Court justices seemed skeptical of the government’s argument that IEEPA gives the administration broad authority to levy tariffs without congressional approval.
It could be weeks or months before SCOTUS issues a decision. But if the justices rule against Trump, it would be a seismic decision. A Republican Congress deeply skeptical of international economic warfare may be forced to vote on tariffs — perhaps several times. This would be a major headache for both Thune and Johnson.
All told, this is a crucial moment for Democrats when it comes to the shutdown, which we’ll get into in the next item. Trump’s comments about the politics of the shutdown, paired with the election victories, served as validation of Democrats’ focus on affordability.
“I think the Republicans are realizing…what we have realized for months — that skyrocketing health care costs are not a good thing, and people can’t afford it,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said.
Two more notes:
— Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) is our guest on Fly Out Day today.
— Thanks to everyone who came to the Punchbowl News Townhouse Wednesday night. We hosted Hill staffers from both parties — who haven’t been paid in weeks — for pizza and drinks.
