Republicans know they have a big, beautiful problem: The centerpiece of President Donald Trump’s agenda is polling like garbage.
Public surveys from this month paint a grim picture for the GOP’s most important legislative push of the 119th Congress.
A plurality of Americans oppose the GOP reconciliation bill, just 67% of Republicans support the package and 71% of independents have an unfavorable view of the effort. In other words, it’s not only Democrats that don’t like the bill. It’s independents and Republicans, too.
In case you aren’t great at math, this is bad.
And instead of spending all their time selling the bill publicly, Hill Republicans remain locked in an internal struggle over its particulars, with the stakes enormously high — both politically and policy wise.
A handful of conservatives — Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), along with Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) — are saying the bill, as currently written, is fatally flawed.
We also reported in Wednesday’s PM edition that Speaker Mike Johnson wasn’t kept in the loop about the drastic changes that Senate Republicans made to the Medicaid provider tax, a provision that could reduce funding for rural hospitals. Plus, SALT remains a huge hot spot for House and Senate Republicans. We’ll get into that further below.
This is an extraordinarily complex legislative package that will impact virtually every American if it becomes law. There could still be weeks of GOP infighting left, ending with no one totally in love with the final outcome.
The larger question for Trump and Hill Republicans is this: Is the One Big Beautiful Bill a replay of what Obamacare or Build Back Better was for Democrats? Is it a bill that’s so large, complex and all encompassing that it’s impossible to sell?
Top House Republicans worry right now that Democrats are beating them to the punch in defining what this bill does and doesn’t do.
“A messaging void is political death,” one House Republican aide told us.
Republicans’ challenge. That’s the scary reality for the GOP: Big, amorphous bills with lots of disparate policy particulars are oftentimes unpopular.
And Democrats are doing a good job branding the bill – a fact even most Republicans concede.
In a recent House Democratic Caucus meeting, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries presented slides that showed very stark numbers for Republicans.
The DCCC polled the popularity of a bill that cuts food stamps, Medicaid and tax credits for clean energy while increasing border security, extending the 2017 tax cuts and temporarily eliminating taxes on tips and overtime.
The internal survey, reported here for the first time, had 61% of respondents opposing the bill while 39% support it. Those numbers got even worse after Democrats branded the bill as a “devastating scheme that takes health care and food away from everyday Americans while giving huge tax breaks to billionaire donors.”
After hearing that Democratic framing, 66% opposed the bill while 34% support it.
Furthermore, Democrats see an ability to make inroads in rural communities by highlighting cuts to rural hospitals that rely on Medicaid.
“We are seeing public support for the bill cratering in real time with a clear argument that is incredibly persuasive to voters: instead of lowering costs, Republicans are cutting health care and food assistance to pay for billionaire tax giveaways,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said. “Simply put, this vote is going to be the defining contrast of the midterms.”
Trying for a turnaround. The NRCC and NRSC are practically begging their rank-and-file to go out and sell the popular provisions of the BBB package.
A recent poll of competitive seats showed that removing undocumented immigrants from Medicaid polled at 82%, taking dead people off Medicaid rolls polled at 86%, and the Republicans’ new Medicaid work requirements polls at 72%.
Another opportunity for Democrats: They’ll say that the GOP is cutting these popular programs to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. That’s why you’ll hear Republicans talk a lot about Trump’s plan to nix taxes for tips and overtime.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair shared new polling data with Senate Republicans last week showing that individual parts of the bill — like no tax on tips and overtime pay — poll extremely well. Blair said Republicans should be going on offense to sell these specific tax provisions. Blair urged Republicans to lean into controversial Medicaid cuts by focusing on removing undocumented immigrants from the program.
The ad wars. Outside groups have clearly gotten the message. Two key political organizations associated with Trump and the House Republicans are spending nearly $16 million on TV this month to try to boost the popularity of the GOP reconciliation package.
The American Action Network, the non-profit associated with House Republican leadership, had $7 million on TV earlier this month trying to blunt the sting of huge cuts to Medicaid. AAN is currently on TV with a $4.2 million buy in 28 congressional districts about the tax benefits of the bill.
Securing America’s Greatness, a Trump-linked super PAC, has $4.7 million in ads on TV between now and the end of the month in 19 congressional districts nationally. Some ads are hitting Democrats for opposing the bill. Other spots thank House Republicans for voting for “working family tax cuts” and “ending free health care benefits for illegals.”
– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Ally Mutnick and Anthony Cruz
