The government shutdown is now two weeks old. There’s no resolution in sight to the crisis.
Here’s some big news: The White House is girding for a long shutdown and has found several new funding streams for critical programs, according to top Trump administration officials.
— The Office of Management and Budget is “working on ways” to get paychecks to federal law-enforcement officers, according to an administration official. This is similar to what Trump ordered over the weekend for 1.3 million active duty military service members.
— The Trump administration will ensure the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children — known as WIC — can continue to operate for the foreseeable future, a White House official said. The administration says it will use hundreds of millions of dollars in Section 32 tariff revenue. This is a vital nutrition program that serves more than six million participants per month, including 40%-plus of U.S. infants.
The impact of these moves by President Donald Trump and senior White House aides show their determination to win this high-stakes faceoff with Democrats.
They’re employing a mix of hard-knuckled, hyper-partisan pressure tactics — canceling energy and infrastructure projects in blue states, firing thousands of federal workers — coupled with aggressive funding moves to hammer Democrats while ensuring that critical government operations don’t shutter. This all has the effect of prolonging the shutdown.
“OMB is making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats’ intransigence,” an OMB official told us. “Pay the troops, pay law enforcement, continue the RIFs, and wait.”
Top Hill Democrats — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have gambled that they can convince Trump to cut a deal on extending Obamacare premium credits at the end of October.
But the White House seems very comfortable with its position and is preparing for an extended shutdown. They’re citing comments from top Democrats, including Schumer, who told us last week that “every day gets better” for Democrats’ shutdown strategy, as a reason to keep going.
“These disgusting statements reveal that Democrats are dug in, and show no signs of changing course,” said a senior White House official. “Republicans want the government open, but we will not be held hostage to partisan demands.”
Let’s be crystal clear about what all this means. By removing some of the most critical pain points of the shutdown — ones that could force Hill Republicans or Democrats to fold — the White House is effectively guaranteeing that the shutdown will last much longer.
If the troops are being paid, WIC is funded and federal law enforcement officers receive paychecks, Senate Democrats who are thus far denying the requisite votes to reopen the government will feel much more comfortable dragging out the shutdown as they demand an extension of Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits.
All this leaves very few remaining forcing mechanisms that could increase pressure on Hill leaders to sit down together and clinch a deal to reopen the government.
Here are some that could help break the impasse.
The Trump factor. Trump has remained on the sidelines while GOP and Democratic leaders have only hardened their positions. Aside from an Oval office meeting with the Big Four congressional leaders, Trump has been largely disengaged.
And after a whirlwind trip to Israel and Egypt as part of a hostages-for-prisoners deal between Israel and Hamas, Trump is riding high. The scene in Sharm-el Sheikh — with world leaders standing in line to greet Trump — was among the high points of his second term.
Trump will meet today with Argentinian President Javier Milei, who recently received a controversial $20 billion economic lifeline from the White House.
On Friday, Trump will huddle with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as U.S. officials look to ratchet up pressure on Moscow.
Schumer has said he wants Trump to nudge Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to cut a deal with Democrats on the Obamacare subsidies. Republicans doubt this will ever happen, but with Trump, anything is possible.
Democrats believe Trump recognizes that allowing the subsidies to expire would be detrimental to him and the GOP in the midterms. Yet that avenue seems cut off for now.
Open enrollment. Open enrollment begins Nov. 1, which Democrats say is the real deadline for the Obamacare subsidies. Some Americans are already getting letters informing them of increased premiums or coverage being dropped altogether.
This is why the Democratic counter-proposal CR funded the government through Oct. 31. The Democratic stopgap funding plan is filled with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of policy provisions, including a permanent extension of the Obamacare subsidies. Some Democrats have said they’d be OK with a clean CR that runs through the end of October alongside a commitment from GOP leaders to address the issue by then.
If the shutdown is still in effect on Nov. 1, Democrats would need to shift their messaging a bit if they want to continue denying Republicans the votes to re-open the government.
On the flip side, getting to Nov. 1 could give Democrats an out. They could argue that Republicans clearly don’t want to do anything about the subsidies, say that they (Democrats) fought as hard as they could and pin the fallout on Republicans. Health-care messaging is much more effective than shutdown messaging, after all.
Air travel. On any given day, according to TSA data, two to three million people travel by air. The shutdown has already had sporadic impacts on staffing at certain airports, leading to flight delays.
A prolonged shutdown has the potential to wreak havoc on airport operations. TSA agents and air traffic controllers are being forced to work without pay, which inevitably leads to call-outs. It’s also terrible for morale, especially among air traffic controllers who’ve been dealing with staffing shortages since long before the shutdown.
