With Congress about to take some huge votes on government funding, the White House has quietly been connecting with battleground House Democrats to see if they’d vote for the GOP’s Nov. 21 spending plan.
This comes as the House and Senate are scheduled for a pivotal day in the growing shutdown drama. The House will go first this morning. Then the Senate will vote on the competing GOP and Democratic proposals, both of which are expected to fail. At that point, lawmakers are expected to leave town for several days at least, setting up a shutdown endgame running right up to the Oct. 1 deadline.
The White House outreach to swing-seat House Democrats is significant because House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is eager to keep his caucus as united as possible against the GOP plan. And President Donald Trump has said his party should not “even bother” negotiating with Democrats.
“That doesn’t mean they don’t want Democratic votes,” said Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), one of the possible defections.
Golden said he had had “very little” contact from the White House and did not go into specifics. But Golden said such communication is typical. “That’s their job,” Golden added.
We spoke to several Democratic lawmakers and aides who were aware of the White House’s efforts. Top Democrats have leaned on their members to wait until Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leaders to get 217 votes on the CR – enough to pass the bill – if they intend to vote yes. Democrats are watching Golden and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), among others.
Democrats in battleground districts could be in a tough spot voting against a clean Republican CR, which would keep federal agencies open until Nov. 21.
Still, moderate Democrats want Republicans to engage on enhanced Obamacare tax credits, a key health care demand. Yet pressure to keep the government open would grow if the Senate is able to pass something and send it back to the House — though that’s unlikely right now.
GOP strategy on timing. There has been intense discussion behind the scenes among House and Senate Republicans about strategy, timing and messaging over a possible shutdown. These discussions have picked up as the reality of an Oct. 1 shutdown sets in – in fact, it’s likely to happen at this point.
House Republicans have been kicking around a number of scheduling options for the period leading up to Oct. 1. Some top Republicans, including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, want to pass their CR proposal today and then leave until after a shutdown starts. The House is scheduled to be out next week for Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year, and members aren’t supposed to return until Sept. 29.
But a number of other senior Republicans think this option would leave a huge opening for House Democrats to exploit.
The Congressional Black Caucus Foundation’s annual legislative conference begins on Thursday and runs through the weekend. Jeffries will be in town, as will other House Democratic leaders and lots of rank-and-file members. Democrats could take advantage of Republicans’ absence by bashing them for being AWOL when the government shuts down. So this seems like an unwise and unlikely play.
We expect Republicans to offer a bunch of “narrow” funding proposals during a shutdown to make it difficult for Democratic moderates. For instance, Republicans could offer a bill to pay soldiers and sailors, or TSA agents and other federal law enforcement officers. They’d dare vulnerable Democrats to vote against these measures, votes that could be used against them next year.
Across the Capitol, Senate Republicans held a conference meeting and went over the same issues. Some GOP senators want to return as soon as Thursday, even though the Senate is scheduled to be out next week as well.
A number of Senate Republicans privately believe Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is prepared to vote for a shutdown but then will soon agree to some kind of deal to reopen federal agencies in return for promises of a vote on Obamacare subsidies or other Democratic priorities.
There was also a lot of speculation during the meeting about how Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought would handle a shutdown. OMB has wide discretion on whether federal employees are deemed “essential” and have to show up to work even if they’re not getting paid. Or Trump and Vought could close down much of the federal operations, making the shutdown as painful for the American public as possible in order to amp up pressure on Democrats to come back to the negotiating table.
