The Punch Power Matrix

IN THIS EDITION

The Punch Power Matrix

Senate Dems’ funding fight strategy takes shape

Doggett gone and who is looking at Chip Roy’s seat

Newsom’s ballot initiative starts bringing in cash

We have a lot of events in September!

SMP files FEC complaints targeting GOP

THE TOP

The Punch Power Matrix

Happy Friday morning.

Every year, we give the entire company the last week of August off. So this is our last edition until Sept. 1.

This will be a huge September in Washington. Government funding runs out Sept. 30, with a possible shutdown looming. We’ll be all over this.

It’s also a huge September for Punchbowl News.

Fly Out Day, our new show made for you — the core PBN reader — debuts Sept. 4 from our brand new studio in the Punchbowl News Townhouse on Capitol Hill. The first reporter roundtable will include the Boston Globe’s Jackie Kucinich and CNN’s Manu Raju — two Capitol Hill veterans. And John Bresnahan, of course. We’ve booked our newsmaker, but we’ll announce that after Labor Day.

Check out the FOD trailer here and subscribe to Punchbowl News’ YouTube page.

If there’s breaking news next week, we’ll bring it to you. Otherwise, enjoy the last week of the summer and we’ll see you on Labor Day. And email Jake if you have news.

– Max Cohen

THE SENATE

Senate Dems’ funding fight strategy takes shape

Senate Democrats have laid the groundwork throughout August to make this fall’s government-funding fight all about health care.

Yet Democrats still need to decide how far to take this clash — and whether they’re willing to force a government shutdown.

Democratic senators have held hundreds of events back home during the recess, mostly focused on the hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicaid cuts included in President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” This recess agenda was a deliberate push by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

But there are differing views among Senate Democrats about whether to lay out specific demands in exchange for their votes, which are needed to avoid a shutdown after government funding runs out on Oct. 1. Soon-to-expire Obamacare premium tax credits are also part of that discussion.

This funding deadline is Democrats’ first real leverage point since March. As you’ll recall, that March funding fight didn’t go well for Schumer and the Democratic Caucus.

Led by Schumer, a bloc of 10 Democrats provided the votes to pass a GOP-authored stopgap funding bill, arguing that a shutdown so soon after Trump took office would hurt them — and the country — more than Republicans.

This became a huge political problem for Schumer. Progressives who wanted to see Democrats play hardball were particularly livid. And they’re eager for a do-over in September.

Fault lines. While some Senate Democrats are already setting the stage for a shutdown showdown with the GOP, others want to maintain the bipartisan nature of the funding process — and get their own earmarks, too. Senate GOP leaders have said they want to use the Appropriations Committee’s funding bills as the basis for an end-of-September funding package.

This could also help pit House Republicans against Senate Republicans over FY2026 spending. House GOP leaders have followed the White House’s “skinny” budget proposal, which calls for big cuts to social programs while boosting defense, border security and veterans’ spending, infuriating Democrats. Meanwhile, Senate appropriators have proposed bipartisan bills with small spending increases across the board.

“I think it’s important that we do the best we can to work across the aisle to get things done for the American people. There is another view on that,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said at a Medicaid-focused event in Phoenix last week, acknowledging the “unconventional” and “often illegal” actions of the Trump administration.

“We are in uncharted territory,” Kelly added. “But I still believe it is in the best interest of our country to do as much as we can in a bipartisan way.”

At a similar event in Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) — who won reelection last year despite Trump’s victory in the Silver State — said the most effective strategy for Democrats to push back is to highlight the local impacts.

“Those are the best ways for us to fight back and call upon the better angels of my colleagues in Washington who are turning a blind eye to regular people’s stories,” Rosen said. “We can’t let those die. Because those folks may die.”

This is news. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is already drawing a line in the sand: Democrats shouldn’t vote for any FY2026 funding bills unless the OBBB’s Medicaid cuts are rescinded.

“If Republicans want Senate Democrats to provide votes to fund the Trump administration, they can start by restoring the health care that they ripped away to finance more tax handouts for billionaires,” Warren told us. “This government funding fight is about saving health care and lowering costs for millions of Americans.”

There’s virtually no chance that Republicans will agree to upend a key portion of the bill they just passed. But Warren is reflecting a desire among the Democratic base to up the ante against an administration they see as acting beyond the bounds of the Constitution.

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) has adopted a similar posture, saying earlier this month that it’ll be “tough” to get her vote without action on Medicaid.

Those frustrations are playing out on the campaign trail, too.

“Maybe there is a desire for business as usual. But business as usual is not gonna cut it right now,” said Mallory McMorrow, who’s running for Senate in a competitive Democratic primary in Michigan.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE LONE STAR STATE

Doggett gone and who is looking at Chip Roy’s seat

There’s a lot of news coming out of Austin.

First, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), a 78-year-old, 16-term House member announced he wouldn’t seek reelection if Texas Republicans go ahead with their mid-decade redistricting plan.

This is huge news. Doggett was barrelling toward a member-on-member clash with Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), the 36-year-old Congressional Progressive Caucus chair drawn by Republicans into the same Austin-based district as Doggett.

Doggett had been urging Casar to run in the new 35th District, a newly created seat closer to San Antonio that President Donald Trump would have carried by 10 points and that contains roughly 10% of Casar’s current voters.

Doggett took a very pointed shot at Casar in a statement announcing his retirement:

Some local Texas Democrats had been urging Doggett to step aside, noting that he was the first House Democrat to call on then-President Joe Biden to exit the 2024 presidential race and make way for a different candidate.

But Doggett was dug in — until Thursday.

This is a big boost for Casar, whose allies waged a seemingly successful pressure campaign to ensure his congressional career could continue.

A GOP retirement. The news that Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) will run for attorney general in the Lone Star State has added another wrinkle to the fast-moving political landscape in Texas.

Several hopefuls are now looking at Roy’s Hill Country seat, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio.

Marc Whyte, a GOP San Antonio city council member, is said to be interested.

Aaron Reitz, who left the Trump administration to run for Texas attorney general, could also switch gears to run for Roy’s seat. Like Roy, Reitz served as chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

One of the new red House seats in Texas borders Roy’s new 21st District, leaving multiple seats for interested Republican candidates in the greater San Antonio area.

The Texas Senate is on track to pass the House version of the proposed new congressional map that creates five new red districts. The measure then heads to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s desk and he is certain to sign it.

At that point, the sprint to Texas’ March primaries begins. We’ll be keeping a close eye on recruitment in those new seats — and potential primary challenges for existing GOP incumbents whose district boundaries changed significantly.

One GOP recruit filed Thursday with the FEC in anticipation of the new maps. Texas state Rep. Briscoe Cain plans to run in the new 9th District, which is safely Republican and located near Houston.

As this map becomes final, one thing worth watching is what Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) does now that the Fort Worth portion of his district is gone. Could Veasey bow out and give fellow Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson (Texas) a chance to run in his new district since her seat is now deep red?

– Ally Mutnick and Jake Sherman

DEMS’ RESPONSE

Newsom’s ballot initiative starts bringing in cash

A political organization supporting California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ballot initiative to boost Democrats by instituting new congressional maps in the state raised $6.2 million.

House Majority PAC gave $3 million. Newsom’s reelection committee gave $2 million. And Bill Bloomfield donated $1 million.

The state legislature voted to place the new Democratic map on the ballot on Nov. 4. Newsom has signed the measure, asking Golden State voters to leave it in place until 2030. Democrats firmly control the legislature, and it was long expected to pass.

Then the real battle begins. Expect millions of dollars — likely tens of millions — to be poured into the ballot fight by pro and anti-redistricting forces over the next two months. This is a huge test for Newsom, who is spearheading this gambit as he eyes a possible 2028 presidential bid.

There are a few unanswered questions from these maps. Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) hasn’t said whether he will run in the new 3rd District or the new 6th District (both are Sacramento-based), although the 3rd District seems more likely.

And Democrats will need to drum up recruits in their new five pickup opportunities. So far, there’s been no shortage of interest.

– Ally Mutnick

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

We have a lot of events in September!

Register to join us in September for can’t miss conversations, with more to be announced after the holiday!

Thursday, Sept. 4, at 9 a.m. ET: Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer will discuss news of the day and workforce innovation, specifically for the built environment. RSVP here! This conversation will be a part of Elevate 2025, hosted by the National Institute of Building Sciences. Attendees are welcome to stay for the full event.

Tuesday, Sept. 9, at 8:30 a.m. ET: Punchbowl News will host a summit with Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) about access to health care, specifically focused on patient access to care in rural communities. Following the one-on-one with Welch, we’ll have a fireside chat with Wright Lassiter III, CEO of CommonSpirit Health, and a panel discussion featuring Emily Holubowich of the American Heart Association; Dr. Torey Mack of the Children’s Hospital Association; and Robin Rudowitz of KFF. RSVP today!

NEW! On Thursday, Sept. 18, at 8:30 a.m. ET we’ll sit down with House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) to discuss news of the day, small business and artificial intelligence. Afterward, Jamie Iannone, president and CEO of eBay, will join us for a fireside chat. This event is presented by eBay. RSVP here!

THE CAMPAIGN

SMP files FEC complaints targeting GOP

Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic-aligned group, is filing a string of FEC complaints against Republicans seeking to stop both party committees from using a loophole that allowed them to save millions on TV ads.

The practice was pioneered late last cycle by the NRSC, which is named in the complaints. The committee and GOP campaigns began running TV ads out of so-called “joint fundraising committees,” essentially airing campaign spots framed as a fundraising plea but getting the lower rate offered to candidates.

Democrats challenged the move in 2024, but the FEC was deadlocked and declined to stop the practice. Both parties then exploited this loophole.

The SMP complaints are another attempt to end these JFC ads, which benefit Republicans more because their candidates have traditionally struggled to fundraise as much as Democrats.

So Democrats are again urging the FEC to rule on whether these tactics constituted an unlawful allocation of resources. Only this time, the FEC can’t deadlock. In fact, they can’t even consider the complaint because they lack a quorum, thanks to commissioner vacancies.

The complaints. One SMP complaint alleges that Republicans diverted funds meant for building and legal fees toward television ads.

Another complaint alleges the NRSC paid for ads in coordination with GOP Senate candidates “without treating the NRSC’s advertising costs as contributions or coordinated expenditures.”

The context: Democrats hope for a ruling once President Donald Trump appoints new commissioners. Absent FEC action, the Democrats will turn the complaints into a lawsuit.

Lauren French, the SMP spokesperson, told us that Democrats want to put up a fight against what they see as deceptive and abusive campaign finance tactics — no matter which party uses them.

Democrats acknowledge they have also benefited from this loophole, but claim they did so at a far lower rate than Republicans.

The Supreme Court is considering a case that could entirely scrap coordination limits between a candidate and a party committee. That means groups like the NRSC wouldn’t need to use a JFC. Instead, they could just run ads with their candidates and get the candidate rate.

NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez was dismissive of the SMP complaints.

“Democrats have already lost at the FEC, lost in district court, lost Senate seats, and now their Party voter registration is plummeting,” Rodriguez said in a statement. “Rather than fix what’s driving their record unpopularity, they’re desperately trying to spin excuses to donors.”

– Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

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