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October 10, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
House Republicans are entering a critical two-day stretch in their quest to elect a new speaker, and they’re mired in a state of total confusion.
Neither candidate — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise nor Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) — has anywhere near the requisite support to win a majority inside the Republican conference or on the House floor.
During a meeting Monday night in the basement of the Capitol, Republicans aired recriminations from last week’s vote to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker while scoffing down a pungent barbecue dinner.
Three GOP lawmakers — Rep. John Duarte of California plus Reps. Carlos Giménez and John Rutherford of Florida — stood up during the meeting to vow that they’d only vote for McCarthy for the chamber’s top job. Rutherford even declared he’d vote for McCarthy on the House floor no matter who emerges as the party’s nominee for speaker.
McCarthy, who didn’t attend the session Monday night, has said he’s not a candidate, although he continues to leave the door open slightly to a possible return.
Republicans also directed their ire at the eight lawmakers who voted against McCarthy. Two of those lawmakers – Arizona Reps. Andy Biggs and Eli Crane – left the meeting early, declining to speak to reporters.
Members of the House GOP leadership and rank-and-file Republicans both agreed there’s no way that Scalise or Jordan could win a floor vote for speaker right now.
“This is a hard conference to lead,” said. Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), a Scalise backer. “There’s a lot of free agents in there.”
One lawmaker — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a Jordan supporter — told reporters he’s worried about Scalise’s health situation, saying “I don’t want somebody who’s going to deteriorate in the job.” Scalise has multiple myeloma, a form of blood cancer and is undergoing chemotherapy. Scalise and his supporters insist he’s fine and would be able to handle the speaker’s duties.
At 5 p.m. today, House Republicans will repair to 1100 Longworth — the Ways and Means Committee room — to hear from Scalise and Jordan in a candidate forum. The internal party vote to select the party’s nominee for speaker is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday.
At this point, less than half of House Republicans have committed publicly to Scalise or Jordan. But Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), one of Scalise’s whips, said he’s feeling “really, really, really good” about the Louisiana Republican’s chances.
It’s also clear that House Republicans have a heightened sense of urgency about choosing a speaker in the wake of Hamas’ bloody terrorist rampage against Israel.
“The world is watching,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said. “They’re seeing a dysfunctional democracy. This is what the ayatollah wants. It’s what Chairman Xi, when he talks about … that democracy doesn’t work. We need to prove them wrong. And we need to get a speaker by Wednesday.”
Yet inside the House Republican meeting Monday, none of that urgency was evident. Neither Jordan nor Scalise said anything during the meeting, sitting patiently as their allies argued during the more than two-hour session.
Not only are the two candidates battling over the speakership, but they’re locked in a proxy war over an effort to change the party’s rules. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) want to alter GOP conference rules to force the nominee for speaker to garner 217 GOP votes among Republicans before heading to the floor for a vote.
Jordan and his supporters are generally in favor of the rule change, many of them understanding that Scalise will struggle to get the requisite votes to win the speaker vote and the Ohio Republican can try to eat away at his support.
Scalise and his supporters are against the proposal. Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), Scalise’s former chief deputy whip, compared the effort to the Georgia secretary of state changing election laws before the 2020 election.
“It’s unfair to change it,” Ferguson insisted in the private meeting.
There’s also some confusion over the threshold for approving this potential rules change. Depending on how the proposal is drafted — and it’s still a work in progress — it could require a majority vote or two-thirds to implement. A majority vote is more likely, but even members of leadership are uncertain.
Two figures played outsized roles in Monday’s session — McCarthy and his close ally Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, the current speaker pro tem.
McHenry was diplomatic during the gathering. He spoke briefly about the proposal to change the threshold for electing a speaker, noting that more than 100 Republicans supported the Fitzpatrick-Roy plan, according to members. McHenry and Scalise have had a rough relationship over the last few years. McHenry was once Scalise’s deputy, but he’s drifted toward the McCarthy camp in recent years.
Yet it’s exceedingly clear that the House GOP is getting anxious about being paralyzed once again.
Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), whose moderate RG2 group will host both Jordan and Scalise today, suggested in an interview that Republicans should somehow change the rules to empower McHenry as speaker to ensure that Israel and America’s other allies get the help they need.
“I think with what’s taking place in the world, it’s important that we take time to empower the present speaker who’s there under rules that were never really officially developed,” Joyce said. “And if there is a problem the next two days, then give him the power to at least continue to move this country forward.”
Scalise and Jordan are both expected to meet with the Florida delegation today. The Sunshine State has 20 GOP votes.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
Upcoming Event! Join Punchbowl News founder and CEO Anna Palmer and senior congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio for a conversation with Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.). They’ll discuss the future of cybersecurity on Thursday, Oct. 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET. RSVP now!
SPEAKER RACE
Scalise’s Louisiana problem
It’s clear that neither House Majority Leader Steve Scalise nor House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has a path to 217 votes at the moment. But in concerning news for Scalise, the Louisiana Republican can’t even lock down his home delegation.
Of Louisiana’s House Republican contingent, only Rep. Julia Letlow has backed Scalise. It’s a marked difference from Jordan’s stranglehold over Ohio Republicans, where he has the backing of every member except Rep. Brad Wenstrup — who’s supporting Scalise — and Rep. David Joyce, who hasn’t endorsed anyone. That’s seven GOP votes for Jordan.
Two Louisiana Republicans — Reps. Mike Johnson and Clay Higgins — told us they’re in a tough position because they’re close with both Scalise and Jordan.
“Jim and Steve are both like brothers to me,” Johnson said. “So I’ve told them I’m really struggling.”
“They’re both dear friends and I think that the country and the world is in a better place once the Republican Conference unites behind one of those men,” Higgins said.
Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), a close ally of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, declined to comment repeatedly to us when we asked who he was backing in the speaker race.
We asked Letlow if she was surprised to be the only Louisiana Republican that’s backed Scalise.
“I can only speak for myself,” Letlow replied.
Of course, the three outstanding GOP votes in Louisiana are unlikely to swing the speaker vote. And Scalise does enjoy broad support across the GOP and is expected to earn more votes than Jordan in a conference-wide vote.
But it’s plainly less than ideal to fail to secure the backing of your fellow delegation members.
Scalise’s strength in House Republican leadership elections has traditionally been regional. His base of support has been the South. So it’s even more notable that Scalise has failed to lock up his own home state.
— Max Cohen and John Bresnahan
WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Israel war throws wrench into Congress’ Ukraine plans
Suddenly, the Ukraine discussion on Capitol Hill is looking a bit different.
Israel’s war against Hamas terrorists has thrown an issue that generally unites Congress — support for the Jewish State — right into the middle of a tense intra-GOP struggle over whether to continue funding Ukraine.
The White House and some Republicans want to link Israel and Ukraine funding together, a proposal that’s already spurring strong opposition from House Republicans.
Israel is reeling from Hamas terror attacks that have left more than 900 Israelis dead and thousands wounded. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has launched a massive mobilization and is preparing for a large-scale war, possibly on several fronts. President Joe Biden has already pledged whatever U.S. help is required for the Israeli campaign, and there’s overwhelming support on Capitol Hill to do so. Biden will speak today from the White House about Israel.
“There’s discussion about putting Israeli funding with Ukraine funding, maybe Taiwan funding and finally border security funding,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) told us. “To me, that would be a good package.”
As we first reported, top administration officials told senators on Sunday night they prefer that emergency aid for Israel be wrapped into the broader Ukraine-focused supplemental funding package that the Senate is aiming to pass in the coming months.
Senate Republicans were already insisting that funding for border security would need to be included in any Ukraine package, arguing it could help ease passage in the House. This would create a large package whereby Congress funds Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, the border and potentially more.
“Our southern border ought to be at the top of our security list and Israel at the top of our allies’ list, which will ensure political support” for the overall package, a GOP senator told us.
But there’s strong resistance from House Republicans opposed to more Ukraine funding. These lawmakers argue that any Israeli aid should ride separately rather than get bogged down by the more complicated Ukraine debate.
“Why would the White House even go down this road of tying Ukraine and Israel?” Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) said. “Obviously Ukraine is an issue in our conference… Let’s make sure we take care of Israel and give them what they need. We’ll take care of everything else later.”
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a top member of the House Appropriations Committee, said he supports more Ukraine funding but doesn’t want to tie the issue to support for Israel.
“Look, I don’t want to jam any of my colleagues. I know they feel very strongly about Ukraine,” Cole said. “I do too, in the opposite direction. But I don’t think they ought to be blackmailed into voting for Ukrainian aid that they don’t support in order to help Israel, which I know they do support.”
Those Republicans who back Israel but not Ukraine said they would be incensed if the two were linked. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) reiterated that she “will not vote to fund Ukraine” and that the two issues should be separate.
National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday night that there are no current plans to ask Congress for a security package for Israel. But administration officials did tell senators on Sunday night that they expect to ask for new funding and authorities at some point.
Kirby declined to speculate about how the Israel situation affects the White House’s ongoing Ukraine push on the Hill.
“We believe both are important,” Kirby said.
Schumer in China: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer discussed a range of issues with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing Monday, per a statement his office shared with us.
This included pressing Xi on “huge structural inequities and serious imbalances the U.S. faces in its economic and trade relationship with China,” as well as on the fentanyl crisis in America and China’s efforts to intimidate U.S. business operating there.
On Monday, we covered Schumer’s successful push for China to issue a stronger denunciation of the terror attacks against Israel.
— Andrew Desiderio, Max Cohen and John Bresnahan
PRESENTED BY DUKE ENERGY
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Our second segment exploring The Future of Cybersecurity is live today and looks into the efforts in Congress to find common ground on legislative action.
As we wrote last week, we’re spending Cybersecurity Awareness Month taking a deep dive into the issue and how it’s playing both on and off Capitol Hill. In a Congress that rarely agrees on much, this is an area that has consistently generated bipartisan bills.
Currently, most congressional efforts are focused on three major areas — artificial intelligence, social media and government surveillance. Much of the movement is in the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has called for urgent action to address AI, particularly ahead of the 2024 election.
While there’s bipartisan agreement that something needs to be done, it may not yet be enough to enact legislation. The challenge for lawmakers is to find consensus among all the competing interests — from advocates to the administration to the tech industry.
Read more on the legislative landscape here. And we have a new podcast episode to go with it too. Listen here.
Next week, we’ll highlight the key power players steering the cybersecurity issue in Congress, the Biden administration and Silicon Valley. Those people will be crucial to shaping what happens next for cybersecurity, including regulating AI.
— Elvina Nawaguna
THE CAMPAIGN
News: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) raised more than $740,000 in the third quarter and has more than $1.3 million on hand. She contributed more than $50,000 to the NRCC and candidates nationwide.
— Jake Sherman
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Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.