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IN THIS EDITION

The leadership election matrix

Senate GOP candidates in Rust Belt need Trump more than ever

Casar hits national Dems for dismissing Texas

CHC, New Dem leaders attack Low for alleged campaign violations

THE TOP

The leadership election matrix

Happy Wednesday morning.

There are 20 days until Election Day.

Waiting on the other side of Nov. 5 are the House and Senate leadership elections, the high-stakes internal political contests that will help determine the parties’ trajectories on Capitol Hill for the next two years.

We wanted to lay out the timeline for these contests and some dynamics you should be aware of.

House Republicans. GOP leadership plans to hold its elections the first week the House comes back into session — Nov. 12. Incoming freshmen members will be in town for orientation Nov. 12-22.

Remember, there are several variables to consider here. It seems possible that it won’t be clear who holds the House majority by Nov. 12. So there could be a question as to whether Republicans are holding elections for the majority or the minority.

If it looks like Republicans will be in the majority, speed benefits Speaker Mike Johnson and the incumbent leadership team. If that’s the case, we don’t anticipate they’ll have any problem staying in power.

But if Republicans slip into the minority, there could be a major shake-up. Will Johnson vie for minority leader? Will someone challenge him, especially House Majority Leader Steve Scalise or Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)?

Besides Johnson, a bunch of other Republicans need to make quick decisions. Who will run for NRCC chair? Will House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik run for reelection to her leadership post or seek a Cabinet position if former President Donald Trump wins?

House Democrats. House Democratic leaders haven’t decided when their leadership elections will occur. But several sources told us it may be too rushed to hold it parallel to the GOP when the House returns on Nov. 12.

Let’s remember that House Democrats, unlike Republicans, have no leadership drama. No one is seeking to oust Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Minority Whip Katherine Clark or Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar. The trio will move up to speaker, majority leader and majority whip if Democrats take the House.

The real competition will be for vice chair, as we reported on Tuesday. That race is between Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) and Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.). Other open slots include the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, leadership’s battleground representative, the representative for members with fewer than five terms and the freshman representative.

It’ll also be interesting to see who Jeffries taps to lead the DCCC.

Senate GOP. This will be the most closely-watched Senate Republican leadership election in nearly 20 years.

There are three declared candidates for the top job — Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.). The other competitive race will be for the No. 3 position, Republican Conference chair, with Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) running.

The GOP election, which is conducted via secret ballot, is expected to take place the week of Nov. 11. Since Tuesday, Nov. 12, is a fly-in day, the election could be on Wednesday the 13th or Thursday the 14th.

But some conservatives have argued during recent closed-door GOP lunches that the election should be delayed so candidates can outline their plans. It comes as Senate Republicans are debating both privately and publicly over potential changes to the leadership structure in a post-Mitch McConnell world.

Hardliners are pushing for a major overhaul that would give individual senators more influence on everything from floor strategy to policy priorities. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has been leading on this and recently outlined some ideas that would significantly curb the power of the party’s leader.

McConnell has been pushing back against these efforts during closed-door meetings. And on Tuesday, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who’s firmly in McConnell’s camp, released his own letter slamming Lee’s proposals as “ill-advised.”

While Lee didn’t explicitly call for delaying the elections, others have done so in an effort to force the candidates to commit to certain concessions before earning their votes. Sound familiar?

Here’s Tillis:

Delaying the leadership elections would require a majority vote in the conference anyway, and there isn’t much support for doing this.

However, if some battleground races aren’t called yet and the full crop of incoming GOP senators has yet to be determined, there would probably be an appetite for a delay.

Senate Democrats. This is perhaps the easiest caucus to project with the least amount of drama. Unless Senate Democrats get wiped out on Election Day, in which case there could be some grumbling, but that will occur across the entire Democratic Party. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will remain firmly in control.

Leadership elections will likely be in early December, based on past practice. The only open job is retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) position as chair of the Policy and Communications Committee.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Melanie Zanona

Punchbowl News Spring Internship: The application for Punchbowl News’ spring editorial internship is open now. The program will run from Feb. 4 – April 24 in Washington. We’re looking for two college students who want to help cover the 119th Congress. Want to apply or know a student who might be a great fit? Check out the details and how to apply here.

Happening today! There’s still time to RSVP to join our interview with Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) today at 9 a.m. ET. We’re discussing the news of the day and how private equity drives innovation, supports jobs, and strengthens small businesses in North Carolina. RSVP to receive access to the livestream now.

THE CAMPAIGN

Senate GOP candidates in Rust Belt need Trump more than ever

FORT WAYNE, Ind. — The polls have shifted every which way in the Senate battleground states this cycle, but one thing has remained constant — former President Donald Trump consistently outperforms the Senate GOP challengers in their own states.

It means there will be thousands of voters across several states who choose Trump at the top of the ticket but vote for a Democrat for the Senate. Democrats’ only hope of retaining their Senate majority — if they don’t pick up seats elsewhere — is to maximize their share of these voters in states where Trump is popular.

It also means Republicans will have to rely on Trump more than ever to lift them to victory. This is especially the case in Midwestern states, where GOP wins are essential if Senate Republicans want to have a workable majority in 2025.

“[Trump] appeals to working-class voters who have traditionally voted Democrat who have now come our way,” Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), who’s on a glide path to winning his Senate race in this deep-red state, told us at a fundraiser here.

“Those are the voters that Bernie Moreno needs to appeal to, that Mike Rogers needs to appeal to, Eric Hovde and Dave McCormick. Take a page from the Trump playbook,” Banks added, referring to the GOP candidates in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, respectively.

In states like Montana, it may be impossible for Democrats to win over enough ticket-splitters to close the gap. It’ll be slightly easier, but still very difficult, to do so in Ohio.

Yet in states that are also presidential battlegrounds, such as those in the Rust Belt, a narrow Trump victory could also mean a narrow loss for the Senate Republican candidate. That could be the difference between a 51-49 GOP majority and a 53- or 54-seat majority.

The Trump factor: NRSC Chair Steve Daines worked hard to recruit competitive candidates. This has been a problem for Republicans in recent cycles, with Trump-superfan candidates making it through primaries and then losing handily in the general election.

Daines’ strategy also relied on close coordination with Trump and his political operation. As a result, the NRSC-preferred candidates won the coveted Trump endorsement.

At first, many of the candidates had low name ID, so it made sense that Trump would poll ahead of them — and behind their Democratic opponent, especially an incumbent. But with just a few weeks left in the 2024 campaign, that dynamic hasn’t changed much.

“I point this out every day — every candidate I just mentioned, Trump outperforms us by five to 10 points,” Banks said. “He’s got the secret sauce.”

In Arizona, for example, even Senate GOP candidate Kari Lake — a Trump loyalist — lags the former president by double digits in some polls. It’s part of the reason why Senate Republicans want to focus during the final stretch on the Rust Belt states, all of which have tightened.

While Trump still polls ahead of the GOP candidates there in most surveys, the gap is closing. Banks said the fact that it’s a presidential year will turn out Trump voters who may not have participated in recent midterms.

— Andrew Desiderio

LONE STAR STATE

Casar hits national Dems for dismissing Texas

Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said national Democrats must start investing more in Texas to move the needle against Republicans’ longtime advantage in the red state.

Casar, a freshman who will likely be the next chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said it was a “devastating mistake” that the DSCC and other national organizations haven’t put more money into Democratic Rep. Colin Allred’s Senate bid.

“We can’t do it entirely on our own,” Casar told us. “I don’t just put it on the DSCC. I put it on national Democratic funders and institutions over the years that have focused on the short term.”

The DSCC raised eyebrows when they announced they would put money into the longshot Texas and Florida Senate races. Their investment ended up being modest. The Senate campaign arm and Allred’s campaign jointly ran a $2.6 million ad buy earlier this month against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.

Polls have varied in the race, but the majority have shown Cruz leading. Cruz and Allred held their only debate on Tuesday.

Still, Texas Democrats insist that the Lone Star State is slowly moving their way. At the DNC, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) credited demographic shifts as part of what’s helped the party make inroads. Casar argues Cruz’s narrow win by 2.6 points over Beto O’Rourke in 2018 was significant.

Casar has been helping Allred’s campaign by holding fundraisers and events for the Texas Democrat and has tried to galvanize young voters.

He brought in progressive stars Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and O’Rourke to mobilize voters at college campuses and rallies in Austin and San Antonio.

But Casar argues Allred can appeal to moderate Republicans and independents too.

“Colin has taken that big tent approach where folks that are much more liberal or much more conservative are all acting as surrogates on the campaign trail,” Casar said.

In a new ad this week, Allred pushed back on Cruz’s attacks against him on transgender rights. Allred retorted by saying he’s a father and a Christian and that he “[doesn’t] want boys playing in girls’ sports.”

Casar said Allred has been doing “everything he can in the short time window he was given” to prepare for the difficult race against Cruz, but urged his party to learn from the results this year. Casar is also heading to Nevada today as part of a Harris campaign effort to reach Latino voters.

Also: Michelle Vallejo, running against Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), is on the airwaves with a new ad hitting her opponent on abortion. Vallejo’s ad features a woman who had to flee the state to get a life-saving abortion.

The six-figure ad is running in the Harlingen market starting today.

– Mica Soellner

GOLDEN STATE DRAMA

CHC, New Dem leaders attack Low for alleged campaign violations

News: A group of House Democrats is accusing California Democrat Evan Low of violating campaign finance laws in his race against fellow Democrat Sam Liccardo in the 16th District.

The group of House Democrats — all of whom have endorsed Liccardo in the contentious Democrat-on-Democrat general election — wrote a letter arguing Low is improperly using state campaign funds to boost his federal election.

The Democrats, led by New Democrat Coalition Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) and Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), cite an FEC complaint filed by Defend the Vote earlier this month.

Defend the Vote alleged Low “illegally used non-federal funds through his state campaign committee to pay for ads for his federal candidacy” and “failed to properly disclose donors to his state committee in a federal filing.” Defend the Vote is also backing Liccardo’s campaign.

Seizing upon this, the House Democrats wrote that Low’s “actions threaten the very foundation of the Federal Election Campaign Act and jeopardize the integrity of our federal elections.”

Low’s campaign has denied any wrongdoing, telling the San José Spotlight that the expenditures in question aren’t in support of his federal campaign and are simply educating his current state assembly constituents about his work in office.

The involvement of leading House Democrats in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) is the latest sign of turmoil in the 16th District campaign.

The election is pitting key Democratic factions against each other. Liccardo is backed by New Dem Action Fund, CHC BOLD PAC and the League of Conservation Voters. Low is endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, AAPI Victory Fund, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund and a number of unions.

Polling has shown Liccardo leading Low in the race.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

CHC BOLD PAC ad buys: The Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC is spending $750,000 in ads attacking challengers to Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) and Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.).

In one ad, BOLD PAC presents Gluesenkamp Perez’s opponent, Joe Kent, as a dangerous radical who is linked with white nationalists and Nazis. We’ve reported how the GOP is rallying around Kent’s attempt to soften his image during his rematch against MGP in Washington’s 3rd District.

In another ad buy, BOLD PAC hits Oregon Republican Mike Erickson on abortion rights in the 6th District race. The ad recounts a 2008 story where Erickson’s former partner claimed he paid for her abortion.

“Mike Erickson is against abortion, unless it’s for him,” the ad’s narrator says.

Taking aim on air: There’s a long tradition of politicians shooting things with guns in ads, from Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) blasting the cap and trade bill to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) blowing up a car labeled “socialism.” Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.) is getting in on the action with a new ad in the 1st District where he rails against CCP spying and shoots a Chinese surveillance balloon.

— Max Cohen

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