The Archive
Every issue of the Punchbowl News newsletter, including our special editions, right here at your fingertips.
Join the community, and get the morning edition delivered straight to your inbox.
October 17, 2023
Presented by Americans for Prosperity
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act delivered $1,500 yearly to families, boosting growth, wages, and jobs. Letting it expire could mean higher taxes and lost progress. Congress: Renew the TCJA to protect families, businesses, and prosperity for all.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
Jim Jordan has problems.
The Ohio Republican plans to head to the floor today for a speaker election with more than a dozen GOP lawmakers saying they’ll vote against him or are undecided about his candidacy.
Some House GOP insiders suggest the 59-year-old Judiciary Committee chair is as many as 20 votes short of winning the speaker’s gavel. That’s a very daunting hill for Jordan and his allies to climb.
The latest: House Republicans met in the Capitol Monday night, where some lawmakers gave the Ohio Republican an earful — and others had his back. Jordan gave a rah-rah speech saying it’s time for Congress to get to work. In the most un-Jordan-like fashion, he told his colleagues they had to pass funding bills, avoid a shutdown and can’t control what the Senate does. This was Jim Jordan, not Kevin McCarthy.
Jordan said after the meeting he felt “even better” than when he walked in.
“We got a few more people we’re going to talk to, to listen to and then we’ll have a vote [Tuesday,]” Jordan said.
We’ve been over this many times during the last nine months, but House Republicans have a razor-thin majority. If Jordan loses just five of the 221 Republicans, he’ll be denied the gavel. Jordan’s friends and allies have signaled he’s willing to go multiple ballots in order to overcome any opposition.
Some Republicans still back McCarthy. Others are upset with how Jordan and his allies treated House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. Jordan’s posture on the 2020 election bothered one Republican. Older members can’t get past Jordan’s long history of slash-and-burn tactics as an influential conservative hardliner who helped found the House Freedom Caucus.
Here’s a non-comprehensive list of Republicans who are either opposed to Jordan, will vote for someone else or haven’t made their position clear. CNN’s Haley Talbot has a useful list as well.
The nos: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (Fla.) won’t vote for Jordan. MDB, as he’s referred to, is close to Scalise. MDB was put off by how Jordan treated the Louisiana Republican.
Rep. Ken Buck (Colo.) has been turned off by Jordan’s questioning of President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. Buck told Jordan that he was a no during a one-on-one meeting Monday night, the Colorado Republican said on CNN. Rep. John Rutherford (Fla.) said he’s casting his vote for McCarthy.
Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.) said he’ll vote for McCarthy on the first ballot. Bacon also left open the possibility that he could vote for someone else on a later ballot. Rep. Victoria Spartz (Ind.) said she doesn’t like the process and signaled she’d vote against Jordan. Spartz, however, changes her positions frequently.
Rep. Mike Lawler (N.Y.) said he’ll vote for McCarthy. But Lawler also said he won’t be the deciding vote against Jordan. Rep. Carlos Gimenez (Fla.) is still backing McCarthy.
Rep. Mike Kelly (Pa.) is voting for Scalise. Kelly introduced a resolution that would elect Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry through Nov. 17, when government funding runs out.
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) said she’s undecided but privately suggested she’s a no. In the closed party meeting Monday night, MMM went down a list of members who criticized her and other Republicans and complained about the pressure tactics employed by Jordan’s allies. Miller-Meeks said Jordan did nothing to stop the attacks. Jordan reminded Miller-Meeks that he’d visited her district twice.
The undecideds or undeclared: Rep. David Joyce (Ohio) has been cool to Jordan’s candidacy, although it will be very hard to vote against an Ohioan for speaker. Reps. Steve Womack (Ark.), Blake Moore (Utah), Jen Kiggans (Va.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.) and Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.) have yet to say how they’ll vote.
Rep. Jake Ellzey (Texas) declined to comment Monday night on how he’ll vote. Ellzey, a former Navy fighter pilot, strongly opposes government shutdowns. Jordan voted against the CR to avoid an Oct. 1 shutdown.
Reps. Nick LaLota and Anthony D’Esposito of New York are still undecided.
As we noted, this isn’t an exhaustive list. It just shows how fluid this situation is and the challenge Jordan faces.
Here’s a useful benchmark. McCarthy got 201 votes on his first of 15 tries to win the speakership in January. McCarthy never dropped below 200 in all 15 rounds. If Jordan doesn’t start somewhere in the 200 neighborhood on the first ballot, he’s in trouble. And several lawmakers told us that they’d only committed to Jordan on the first ballot.
Furthermore, lawmakers may drop their support for Jordan if it’s clear he’s losing early in the tally. The tally is conducted in alphabetical order and Bacon, Buck and Diaz-Balart come early in the alphabet. Jordan could be close to losing the vote in the first three letters of the alphabet.
Florida Rep. Gus Bilirakis, who is a Jordan supporter, will not be in D.C. for the noon vote. He’s expected back in Washington this evening.
What to expect. This contest can easily go multiple ballots. In fact, many GOP lawmakers and aides expect it will. But keep in mind that Republicans were willing to go 15 rounds for McCarthy because they liked him. Jordan is not as well liked as McCarthy.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Mica Soellner
We’re On The Road Again: Join us next week on Friday, Oct. 27 at 1 p.m. CT/2 p.m. ET in Little Rock, Ark. or on the livestream! Republican Sens. John Boozman and Tom Cotton of Arkansas will discuss the challenges facing small business owners in rural America. RSVP here.
HOUSE DEMOCRATS
Jeffries: No regrets on McCarthy ouster
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has “no” regrets about Democrats voting to oust Kevin McCarthy from the speakership — even if Jim Jordan wins the gavel.
“Kevin McCarthy and Jim Jordan have a different demeanor, but they practice the same extreme right-wing ideology,” Jeffries told us in an interview Monday night.
“They both voted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election … to criminalize abortion care and impose a nationwide ban and … to end Social Security and Medicare as we know it,” Jeffries added.
Jeffries’ comments come as Republicans continue their so-far futile effort to choose McCarthy’s successor. While the eight House Republicans who voted against McCarthy on the floor have been lambasted by their colleagues, GOP lawmakers are also trying to shift some of the blame for the current debacle onto Democrats. Republicans argue that if Democrats had voted present or simply not voted — they claim some Democrats suggested that could happen — McCarthy would still be speaker and the current disaster avoided.
Jeffries and Democrats, though, are having none of it. They point out that Democrats voted the same way they did throughout January’s grueling floor fight over electing McCarthy.
Several Democrats also said it doesn’t matter whether McCarthy or Jordan wields the gavel as far as they’re concerned.
“A vote to not vacate is endorsing McCarthy’s agenda. It has been the same as Jordan’s agenda,” said Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) “Jordan supported McCarthy and vice versa.”
“Kevin McCarthy is a man unburdened by shame or principle,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) said. “The idea that he’s some Rock of Gibraltar in the institution is just fallacious, it’s totally false.”
Connolly added: “McCarthy is hostile to our interests. Why in the world would we vote for a continuation of that?”
Privately, some Democrats are concerned that the continued GOP dysfunction could drag the House — and the Congress — further into a political morass that hurts the country.
Unlike McCarthy, Jordan as a party leader is an unknown quantity. And Democrats worry that Jordan as speaker could fundamentally change the institution through a new rules package or launching investigations into members or other ideas they haven’t even considered yet.
“If he acts as speaker as he acted on the Judiciary Committee, it will be a nation torn apart,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) told us.
While Jeffries had a cordial working relationship with McCarthy, that doesn’t exist with Jordan. And Jordan has shown zero interest in working with Democrats.
Jeffries made clear he has no intention of softening his posture toward Jordan, even if the Ohio Republican wins the speakership.
“Jim Jordan is a poster child for MAGA extremism,” Jeffries said. “And that will be on full display if House Republicans elevate him to the speaker’s chair.”
Still, Jeffries insisted Democrats would continue to put up the votes necessary to keep the government funded and critical aid flowing to U.S. allies like Israel and Ukraine. Democrats provided the necessary votes to avert a government shutdown last month and raise the debt limit earlier this year.
“Nothing in that regard will change,” Jeffries said.
— Heather Caygle, John Bresnahan and Mica Soellner
THE SENATE
Senate returns to Washington facing new realities
The political and legislative landscape looks a bit different since the last time the Senate was in session.
Senators return this week to stark new political realities — a confirmation fight for the U.S. ambassador to Israel, a supplemental funding request coming earlier than expected after the attacks on Israel and a possible Speaker Jim Jordan.
And later this evening, President Joe Biden will travel to Israel and Jordan. It’s a high-profile trip to a region convulsed by war, the second time Biden has done so as president.
Jack Lew: Biden’s nominee to serve as U.S. ambassador to Israel was making the rounds in the Senate Monday ahead of his confirmation hearing tomorrow. Democrats are united on Lew and pushing for a speedy confirmation process given the war.
This won’t happen. Several Republicans have expressed open disdain for Lew, stemming largely from his role in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Senate Minority Whip John Thune told us that the Iran issues will “play heavily.”
Lew could get a committee vote as soon as next week and then hit the Senate floor shortly thereafter. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will need to file cloture to overcome the GOP objections, setting up a late-October confirmation vote at the earliest.
Lew will get confirmed eventually, just not on the timeline Democrats want.
Supplemental funding: We’re told the White House is on track to release its Israel funding request by the end of the week. Senators expect it will include a substantial amount of funding for Ukraine too, as well as new border-security money.
Several House Republicans oppose linking Israel and Ukraine, given the popularity of the former and the GOP divisions over the latter.
But Jordan has floated that idea, according to some of his GOP colleagues. That has Senate Republicans — who largely back merging the two efforts — wary about the future of the Ukraine portion.
“It’s something the House is going to have to sort out,” Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) said of Ukraine. “We have the votes over here.”
A new speaker? As we noted above, GOP senators are eager to get this chapter of House Republican chaos behind them. But Jordan’s possible ascent to the speakership could put some major priorities of the Senate GOP leadership — Ukraine aid topping that list — in doubt.
“I certainly hope he’s going to support it and listen to reason,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) told us of Jordan, who declined to comment on the possible linkage of Israel and Ukraine funding.
Republican senators admit they’re not quite sure what to expect with Jordan, especially with government funding expiring in a month. They reasoned that Jordan’s bomb-throwing days seem to be behind him.
“Governing is harder than being in the minority and just kind of criticizing others,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). “I’ve been impressed with the job he’s done as chairman of the Judiciary Committee. And certainly as one of the founders of the Freedom Caucus, he’s come a long way and … been very constructive.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a member of leadership, said he hopes House Republicans have “learned from their mistakes” — including booting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
“Give him a shot,” Tillis said of Jordan. “This is not about Jordan. This is about a handful of people either providing a competent person to govern or not.”
Iran news: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) will unveil legislation today aimed at punishing Tehran, officially freezing $6 billion and directing the Treasury Department to report to Congress on Iran’s global assets. Scott is the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee and a GOP presidential candidate.
The effort is a response to both the Hamas terror attacks last week as well as the Biden administration’s ambiguous commitment to re-freeze $6 billion in Iranian assets held by Qatar.
Read the text of the Scott bill here.
— Andrew Desiderio and Brendan Pedersen
THE FUTURE OF…
Any substantial cybersecurity action will require lots of people to agree on broad policy outlines. That will include members of Congress, government officials, tech leaders and more.
In the third segment of our series, The Future of Cybersecurity, we highlight some of the key players driving cybersecurity policy in Washington and beyond.
The Senate is currently taking the lead in crafting cybersecurity legislation, much of it focused on the perils and promise of artificial intelligence. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is driving those efforts with help from leaders on the relevant committees.
We also have a new podcast to accompany the latest segment. Listen to it here.
Next week, we’ll take a deep dive into how the issue of cybersecurity is getting amplified, through advocacy campaigns, lobbying and efforts at the state and local levels.
Don’t miss: On Thursday, Punchbowl News founder and CEO Anna Palmer and senior congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio will interview Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) on the future of cybersecurity. The live conversation will start at 8:30 a.m. ET at The Morrow Hotel. We have a few in-person spots left. Click here to RSVP.
— Elvina Nawaguna
THE CAMPAIGN
News: Elect Democratic Women raised $1.4 million in the third quarter. The group, chaired by Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), aims to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights.
Virginia legislative election latest: The Virginia Democratic Party is warning in a new ad that state Republicans will enact an “extreme MAGA agenda” if given the majority in the state legislature.
The Old Dominion State’s November elections will determine control of both houses of the Virginia legislature. And Democrats are reprising similar messaging that proved successful in the 2022 midterms, including hitting the GOP on abortion rights.
— Max Cohen
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by Americans for Prosperity
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act gave families $1,500 yearly, boosted small businesses, and strengthened U.S. competitiveness. Allowing it to expire would jeopardize this progress. Congress: Renew the TCJA to secure growth and prosperity for all.