NEWS: Scalise bearish on extending Obamacare premiums

IN THIS EDITION

Scalise on FOD: Republicans won’t extend Obamacare credits

What the FEC filings tell us about the battle for the House

Georgia’s GOP primary is up for grabs

Cocktails & Conversation

THE TOP

Scalise on FOD: Republicans won’t extend Obamacare credits

Happy Friday morning.

This is Day 17 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to this crisis.

It’s true that there are House Republicans eager to extend the enhanced Obamacare premium tax credits. A significant number of them.

It’s also true that when Republicans are being honest, they’ll admit privately that if Congress fails to extend the credits and premiums skyrocket for millions of Americans, the GOP will be to blame.

But here’s another truth: House Republican leadership really doesn’t want to extend these tax credits. And their view is only hardening as the shutdown drags on.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise was our guest on Fly Out Day this week. Scalise has a unique perspective on health care policy and politics. He’s the only member of the House Republican leadership who was in Congress during the Obamacare wars of the early 2010s. Scalise served on the House Energy and Commerce Committee for much of his time in the rank and file.

We asked Scalise plainly: Would you vote to extend these tax credits? Here’s what he said:

That’s not precisely what Fetterman said. He said that Democrats “designed” the subsidies “to expire at the end of the year. … Let’s have a conversation to extend it and not shut down our government.”

We pressed Scalise again: At this time, will Congress allow the credits to expire?

“Right now, the Democrats set them up to expire,” Scalise said. “That’s how the law works. That’s how Democrats set them up to work. Clearly, they didn’t want them to go on.”

So just to review, Scalise, the No. 2 House Republican, said he wouldn’t vote to extend these credits. And according to Scalise, the credits are used to “bail out insurance companies” and extending them will do nothing to stop skyrocketing costs.

This isn’t just idle talk from Scalise. The Louisiana Republican is well versed on the subject matter, and he has an extremely good read of what’s happening inside the House GOP Conference. Scalise is expressing what is the overwhelming sentiment among his Republican colleagues right now.

Inside the House Republican leadership, the belief is that somewhere between 20% and 30% of GOP lawmakers would be open to extending the tax credits at the heart of the government shutdown. The House has been out of session for the last 28 days, so it’s impossible to make an independent judgement about whether that estimate is correct.

But what’s clear is that it’s wildly wrong to believe that House Republicans would simply return to Capitol Hill and pass an extension of the subsidies without vigorous debate and a drastic overhaul of the program.

“And Democrats know that,” Scalise said. “They know that the mess they created — and I know they’re trying to dump the problems of Obamacare off on everybody, other than the people that actually passed and voted for Obamacare. Those high premiums are a result of Democrat policies. If they really wanted to work with us on lower premiums, there are a lot of bipartisan ideas that you could come to the table and bring and do, and they’ve got to stop fighting the things that have been proven to work, as well.”

Those bipartisan ideas that Scalise is referring to include association health plans, which allow employers to join together to buy insurance plans, plus health savings accounts.

Democrats’ theory of the case is that GOP leaders like Scalise aren’t worth listening to because President Donald Trump will make the ultimate decision about whether Republicans cut a deal to extend these subsidies. That’s fair enough. Republicans do what Trump wants regardless of whether it controverts decades of GOP political orthodoxy. See the $5 trillion debt limit increase in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as a prime example.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has tried for weeks to lure Trump into the shutdown talks. Trump has seemed completely uninterested.

But for now, Trump seems completely comfortable with letting the shutdown continue. And Scalise’s proclamations about the state of the GOP conference are worth internalizing to understand just how House Republicans truly feel.

Scalise also talked about Louisiana politics — he declined to endorse Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). Check out the full episode.

Vibe shift. This was a throwaway week in the Senate. Nothing happened to resolve the funding impasse. Senate Democrats have now filibustered the House-passed CR 10 times, while also blocking the full-year defense appropriations bill.

But with the shutdown poised to enter its fourth week, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is trying something new.

The Senate is expected to vote next week on a GOP proposal to pay federal employees who’ve been forced to work without pay during the shutdown, including the military. Senate Republicans will also keep forcing votes on the Nov. 21 CR.

This is a shift for Thune, who had previously resisted these piecemeal efforts as he pushed for Democrats to back the stopgap funding bill. But tensions are flaring in the Senate, and Thune wants to put Democrats on the spot.

“These are not people who want to get things done,” Thune fumed on Thursday. “These are people who want to fight Trump and appease all the people that are coming into town this weekend.”

— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

Next week in South Bend, Ind.: Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.) on Monday, Oct. 20, at 9 a.m. ET to discuss the news of the day and how private capital is investing in America. RSVP!

CASH DASH

What the FEC filings tell us about the battle for the House

Endangered incumbents in both parties posted strong third quarter fundraising as they gear up for the 2026 midterms. But Democrats have so far landed more well-funded challengers.

Neither party needs to flip more than a handful of seats to secure House control. And it’s still early in the election cycle. Many candidates launched their campaigns in the fourth quarter, so we don’t have a sense of their fundraising prowess. And we have no idea just how much redistricting will upend the House map.

Yet those caveats aside, Democrats are doing what they need to do to keep as wide a path to a majority as possible in 2026.

Incumbents. Seventeen of the 25 Democratic incumbents on the NRCC’s 2026 target list raised $500,000 or more in Q3, according to a Punchbowl News analysis of FEC filings.

Four of those Democrats raised more than $1 million: Reps. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine).

On the GOP side, 20 of the 30 Republican incumbents on the DCCC’s target list raised $500,000 or more in Q3.

Four of those Republicans also crossed the $1 million threshold: Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.).

Challengers. Of course, primaries will drain resources. But Democrats are doing better in getting well-funded challengers in place. Democratic candidates raised $400,000 or more last quarter in 13 of the 30 DCCC-targeted districts. Republican candidates crossed that threshold in five districts on the NRCC’s list.

A few endangered Republicans were outraised by a challenger. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) was bested by Democrat JoAnna Mendoza. Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) also raised less than their challengers, who are both running again after losing in 2024.

Democrats in some “reach districts” posted strong numbers: Chaz Molder, a Democrat challenging Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), raised nearly $800,000 to Ogles’ $65,000.

Some targeted Democrats were outraised by GOP opponents: Reps. Don Davis (D-N.C.), Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). But all of their opponents are self-funded. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) wasn’t outraised but seems likely to have a more serious challenge this time. Washington state Sen. John Braun raised $509,000.

Yet a number of other swing-seat Democrats didn’t have any serious challenger at the close of the third quarter, including Reps. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), Josh Riley (D-N.Y.), Tran and Suozzi.

Redistricting twist. For Davis, North Carolina Republicans’ redistricting push makes his future uncertain. Davis said in a statement that he’s “considering every option” in light of the new redraw, which makes his district significantly more red. Trump would have won it by 11 points. The new North Carolina map also put Davis’ home into Rep. Greg Murphy’s (R-N.C.) district.

A Murphy spokesperson said he’s reviewing the map and “looks forward to serving the people of Eastern North Carolina.” Murphy’s district would become a Trump +13 seat under the proposed map. It would lose the Outer Banks and much of the coast to Davis’ current district, which is a big change for Murphy.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries responded by vowing to “aggressively defend” Davis and “unleash everything we have” to defeat Murphy next year.

– Ally Mutnick and Laura Weiss

PEACH STATE POLITICS

Georgia’s GOP primary is up for grabs

There’s a competitive, three-way Republican Senate primary in Georgia with no clear frontrunner — the exact scenario the GOP desperately wanted to avoid after a string of embarrassing losses in the Peach State.

The three Republican candidates — Derek Dooley and Reps. Mike Collins (Ga.) and Buddy Carter (Ga.) — all have a legitimate chance of advancing to take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.). But President Donald Trump hasn’t yet weighed in. We’re told that some Republicans think the field isn’t set yet, hinting at a late entrance by another candidate.

So how did we get here?

Georgia Republicans lost their top recruit when Gov. Brian Kemp passed on a run in May. Even though Kemp said at the time he’d work with the White House to coalesce around a candidate, in August the governor went and endorsed Dooley — a former college football coach and political newcomer.

Dooley raised $1.9 million in the first eight weeks of his campaign. Dooley’s haul, while impressive, was below what some expected given his access to Kemp’s donor list.

Collins also raised over $1 million to his campaign account in Q3 — plus another $800,000 to his victory fund — and ended the period with $2.3 million on hand. Collins, who has a claim for the strongest MAGA bona fides in the race, chipped away at the perception that he was a weak fundraiser.

Carter, who’s largely self-funding his campaign, has been spending millions of dollars on the airwaves presenting himself as a “MAGA warrior,” a claim that many Republicans view as somewhat dubious given Carter’s more mild-mannered demeanor.

The bottom line? All three are viable, but none seem to have the firepower at this juncture to make Ossoff sweat. Ossoff raised $12 million in Q3 and has a war chest of $21 million.

Ossoff has leaned into shoring up his left flank in recent months, suggesting Trump should be impeached and refusing to join with some moderate Democrats to back GOP funding bills.

— Max Cohen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Cocktails & Conversation

On Thursday night, we hosted Cocktails & Conversation, an event featuring networking, light bites and a fireside chat about cybersecurity and AI policy.

During the event, Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer sat down for a conversation with Cisco President & Chief Product Officer Jeetu Patel. Thank you to Cisco for partnering with us on this event.

Raising a glass: Raymond Rodriguez of Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-Calif.) office; Rubi Flores of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus; Max Stahlberg of the United States Space Force; Mariel Garcia of the Department of State; Johanna Thomas, John Lin and Parul Desai of the House Energy & Commerce Committee; Emily Kassner-Marks of Rep. Robert Garcia’s (D-Calif.) office; Sara Guerrero of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform; Lior Azariya of Space Systems Command; Oscar Buvalic of the Embassy of Slovakia; Karl-Gerhard Lille of the Embassy of Estonia; Meredith McPhillips of Business Roundtable; Michael Moroney of FleishmanHillard; and Waldo McMillan, Nicole Isaac, and Oliver Tuszik of Cisco.

…AND THERE’S MORE

War powers. Senators are preparing to force a vote on another war powers resolution, this time centered on Venezuela.

The bipartisan resolution, from Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), would require the Trump administration to remove U.S. forces “from hostilities within or against Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress.” The senators filed it Thursday.

The move comes after President Donald Trump this week said that he’s authorized the CIA to conduct operations inside Venezuela and “is looking at land” operations as well.

Kaine and Schiff previously championed a resolution seeking to prevent the Trump administration from striking alleged drug boats in the Caribbean without congressional approval. The Senate voted 48-51 last week to block it.

In related news. Adm. Alvin Holsey, who leads U.S. Southern Command and oversees operations in Central and South America, is retiring at the end of the year. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the news on X after the New York Times first reported it.

— Briana Reilly

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