Health care costs explode in key Senate states

IN THIS EDITION

How health care is already dominating 2026 Senate fight

Dems’ new Illinois redistricting plan targets LaHood

The Vault: It’s everybody versus the banks on financial data rights

ICYMI: Yakym on entrepreneurship, Obamacare subsidies

THE TOP

How health care is already dominating 2026 Senate fight

Happy Tuesday morning.

This is Day 21 of the government shutdown. There’s no solution in sight to this crisis.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that Congress may have no choice but to pass a one-year CR after the government opens up. This would be a massive blow to appropriators in an all Republican Washington.

Chapter infinity of health care wars. Regardless of what happens with the enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies at the heart of this record-breaking funding clash, health care is already playing a huge role in the 2026 Senate landscape. And it’s only going to get larger.

Across Senate battleground states, soaring health-care costs — on top of rising prices for food, housing and electricity — are hammering voters and boosting Democratic hopes that they can cut into the GOP majority.

In Georgia, there are already reports that monthly Obamacare premiums could as much as quadruple, with a deductible of up to $10,000, a massive price shock for Peach State enrollees.

“My constituents are already logging on and seeing that their premiums are gonna be nearly doubled or doubled or more than doubled, and they’ve got to start buying their insurance in a couple weeks,” said Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.), the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection next year.

In Maine, the Bureau of Insurance announced individual marketplace plans will see premiums rise by an average of 24% in 2026. Hikes will average almost 18% on the small employer market.

And in Michigan, another battleground state, Blue Cross’ average rate hike for Obamacare could surpass 18% — and that’s before factoring in the Dec. 31 expiration of the Covid-era enhanced subsidies.

Election Day is still more than a year away, so a lot can change. Plus, it’s the Trump era, which means it’s impossible to declare definitively what will sway voters’ decision-making next November.

Republicans dominate on immigration, and they’ll make sure voters know the tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are all because of them. President Donald Trump is pushing hard on crime by sending the National Guard into major cities even as he plays up culture war issues.

Yet Republicans have already largely lost the messaging war over the OBBB. Massive Medicaid cuts included in the GOP bill were always going to be a big problem for Republicans heading into the midterms. Now, add the Obamacare premiums issue into the mix with spiking health care costs.

Georgia. As Ossoff campaigns for a second term in Georgia, he’s leaning hard into Democrats’ government-funding battle.

Often the most vulnerable senators are looking for an off-ramp in a partisan standoff like this.

But Ossoff has been firmly on board with Democrats’ shutdown strategy, demanding action on health care in exchange for the votes to pass a CR. Months ago, Ossoff was already seizing on the Obamacare cliff to pressure Republicans.

Rep. Buddy Carter (Ga.), one of the GOP contenders to take on Ossoff, said in a statement that it’s Democrats who “broke our health care system.”

Former college football coach and Republican candidate Derek Dooley’s campaign also argued that the current problem is on the Democrats. Dooley noted that GOP leaders have said they’ll debate the Obamacare cliff after Democrats agree to reopen the government.

Maine. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has been bucking her party all year over health care.

Collins pushed the Senate Republican leadership to add a $50 billion rural hospital fund to the OBBB to counter concerns about its Medicaid cuts. Even with that provision in the bill, Collins voted against the GOP reconciliation package.

Now Collins is calling for an extension of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies. She’s been targeted with ads by pro-Democrat groups, more than a year out from Election Day.

Collins said she’s hearing concerns about the Obamacare cliff in Maine. But the veteran senator added that “what I’m most hearing is concern about the shutdown.”

Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who’s challenging Collins, said in a statement that the Obamacare cliff will cause “tens of thousands of Maine people” to suffer higher costs, if not lose coverage entirely.

Graham Platner, another Democratic hopeful, supports Medicare for All.

Michigan. Democrats in the crowded primary for retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-Mich.) seat are targeting GOP candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers over soaring health-care costs.

“We are facing a health care crisis in our country with rising costs and reckless cuts from Donald Trump and RFK Jr. — which millionaire Mike Rogers wants to rubber stamp,” Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) said.

State Sen. Mallory McMorrow is calling for the enhanced Obamacare subsidies to be extended through 2028, the remainder of Trump’s term. McMorrow supports a broader health care overhaul including a public option.

Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, backs Medicare for All and wants to abolish medical debt. El-Sayed is seizing on the shutdown standoff to make that point with a series of health-care focused town halls beginning Wednesday.

The Obamacare factor. As Democrats stake their shutdown fight on the expiring ACA credits, key Republicans say they’re ready to take that battle to voters as a referendum on Obamacare.

“I do think the unaffordability of Obamacare is going to be an issue,” Thune said. “And our candidates, incumbents and challengers, are going to have to be prepared to duke it out.”

“If they want to argue about the failure of Obamacare, if I’m out there on the campaign trail, bring it on,” Thune added.

Also: Senate Republicans are having lunch with Trump in the Rose Garden today.

— Laura Weiss, John Bresnahan, Ally Mutnick, Max Cohen and Andrew Desiderio

NEW! Join Punchbowl News for a conversation with House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) on Nov. 4 at 9:30 a.m. ET. Jake Sherman will sit down with Graves to discuss the news of the day, FEMA reform efforts and the role that the federal government plays in disaster response and recovery. Afterward, Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, will join Jake for a fireside chat. RSVP now!

REDISTRICTING WARS

Dems’ new Illinois redistricting plan targets LaHood

News: House Democratic leaders have shifted their proposed new Illinois congressional map as they angle for a mid-decade redraw in the Land of Lincoln.

The latest configuration would target GOP Rep. Darin LaHood in the northwestern region rather than GOP Rep. Mary Miller in the center of the state, according to multiple sources close to the process. The new map would likely elect 15 Democrats and two Republicans.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is driving this push, working quickly to bring the congressional delegation on board and convince state legislative leaders to move the map through in Springfield. Jeffries and his team worked over the weekend to nudge both groups along, especially Black lawmakers.

House Democrats are expected to send a proposed map to the leaders in the General Assembly. Illinois House Speaker Chris Welch and state Senate President Don Harmon — both longtime Democratic public officials — are the leaders in their respective chambers.

Roadblocks. We’ve written at length about the difficulties in this process. The Illinois delegation has two primary concerns: 1) diluting Black representation and 2) making blue seats too purple by stretching Democratic voters too thin. Jeffries’ latest attempt to shift the configuration of the new map could assuage some of these fears.

Democrats initially were told the target would be Miller, a controversial member elected in 2020. Targeting LaHood — the son of a former member who first won his seat in 2015 — means many of the Chicago-area districts would need to stretch more west than south.

But the hardest part of all this likely lies in Springfield, where there’s little enthusiasm for this redistricting push. Illinois’ filing deadline is in two weeks and candidates are already circulating petitions.

The state legislature would have to move very fast on the new map or shift the date of its primaries next year. Legislators will be in a veto session next week. Jeffries has been trying to influence this, but Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker may have more sway. Pritzker sidestepped a question Monday on whether the legislature should redraw the map.

– Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

The Vault: It’s everybody versus the banks on financial data rights

News: The Financial Technology Association has assembled a sweeping coalition of fintech, crypto and merchant groups to try to preserve the legal framework that undergirds “open banking.”

Today is the deadline for a comment period that will reconsider the implementation of open banking rules mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act. After more than a decade, those rules were briefly finalized under the Biden administration. Then, in August, the Trump administration’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau hit the reset button.

The FTA’s comment letter, which you can read here, shows a significant swath of industry support for preserving key parts of the Biden administration’s original approach to open banking — unless you’re a bank.

“The nation’s largest banks want to roll back open banking, weaken consumer financial data sharing and crush competition to protect their position in the marketplace,” the letter warned. Signatories include the FTA, American Fintech Council, Blockchain Association, Crypto Council for Innovation, Financial Data and Technology Association, National Association of Convenience Stores, National Grocers Association and National Retail Federation.

Open banking is an attempt to make it easier for customers to access and transfer their financial details between different regulated firms. Banks don’t love the policy for a few reasons, including fears that open banking could make it far easier for customers to switch banks and threaten their deposit bases.

Policy pique. The coalition has two main asks for the CFPB, and both are aimed at preserving the Biden administration’s approach to open banking.

The first is on the regulatory definition of a “representative” who can request a customer’s data. The fintech-crypto-retail coalition asks the CFPB to avoid narrowing the definition of “representative” to someone who has a fiduciary relationship with a customer, which is a far higher bar than the prior approach.

“It would be unusual to hold third-party financial apps to a higher legal standard than banks themselves—who aren’t typically fiduciaries to their customers,” the letter says.

The second request is aimed at fees — specifically, the lack thereof.

The Biden administration’s open banking rule prohibited banks from charging fees for access to customer data. After the CFPB rescinded the rule earlier this year, JPMorgan Chase prepared to charge fintech firms for data access — a move that was swiftly decried by Tyler Winklevoss, founder of the crypto exchange Gemini.

Bankers argue that it will cost them money to implement open banking access and fees are a fair way to cover the expenses. The coalition disagrees. “Most of what banks claim as new costs — cloud storage, engineering staff, technology infrastructure — are things they already pay for to run a modern bank.”

– Brendan Pedersen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: Yakym on entrepreneurship, Obamacare subsidies

Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.) said enhanced Obamacare subsidies can be negotiated with Democrats after the federal government is reopened during a Punchbowl News event on Monday in South Bend, Ind.

Yakym also discussed entrepreneurship, investment in Indiana’s 2nd District and private capital.

Yakym said his state doesn’t have a heavy, regulatory environment and praised its tax code as “very much pro-investment.” He also said Indiana has “an incredible entrepreneurial spirit” of people who want to start and invest in companies.

You can watch the full recording here.

– Shania Shelton

THE CAMPAIGN

The DSCC raised more than the NRSC both in September and for the entire third-quarter.

The Senate Democratic campaign arm raised $9 million in September, versus Republicans’ $7.1 million last month. The DSCC raised $19.9 million in all of Q3. The NRSC raised $18 million.

The DSCC also ended with more cash-on-hand with $16.3 million to the NRSC’s $12 million.

As we reported in Monday’s Midday edition, the DCCC outraised the NRCC in Q3 ($26.2 million to $24 million) but not in September, where the GOP raised $14 million to Democrats’ $11.5 million.

We now have cash-on-hand totals too. The DCCC ended with slightly more on hand, $46.6 million to the NRCC’s $45.8 million.

Nationally, the RNC continues to just decimate the DNC. The RNC has raised about one-third more for the year. More importantly, the RNC has $86 million in the bank compared to $12 million for the DNC, a staggering gulf.

Virginia latest: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D-Va.) campaign is running a new attack ad tying GOP candidate Winsome Earle-Sears to President Donald Trump’s agenda. The ad, part of a $1 million buy through Election Day, connects Earle-Sears to higher prices and increased unemployment.

News: The NRDC Action Fund, the advocacy partner of the Natural Resources Defense Council, is running a $545,000 baseball-themed ad buy targeting Republican incumbents for supporting the GOP reconciliation package.

One spot, targeting Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), intersperses MLB playoff highlights with audio slamming the One Big Beautiful Bill.

There are outside-the-box ads featuring a Babe Ruth impersonator and one spoofing a betting ad.

The spots also target GOP Reps. Mike Lawler (N.Y.), Tom Barrett (Mich.) and Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.).

House map: Unrig Our Economy is running a $75,000 ad buy targeting Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) for supporting the Medicaid provisions in the OBBB. Here’s another Medicaid ad, backed by $120,000, going after Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.).

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

MOMENTS

CLIPS