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IN THIS EDITION

Milton to hit Wednesday night. And it’s debate season for Hill races

Stelson eyes opportunity to unseat Perry

The Vault: Waters doesn’t like what she sees in Tim Scott

HMP up on the air hitting Van Orden

THE TOP

Milton to hit Wednesday night. And it’s debate season for Hill races

Happy Tuesday morning. There are 28 days until Election Day.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said that Hurricane Milton could make landfall in the Sunshine State by Wednesday night.

DeSantis spoke with President Joe Biden Monday evening, according to the White House.

Late on Monday, DeSantis said, “Everything we’ve asked for from President Biden, he has approved.” DeSantis added that he was “not aware” that Vice President Kamala Harris had called him. NBC reported that DeSantis was ignoring her calls. got

It’s debate season. At least it is for House and Senate races anyway, since another presidential debate doesn’t look like it’s going to happen at this point. Not unless former President Donald Trump and his top advisers have a dramatic change of heart.

Just this week, there will be debates in key Senate races in Arizona, Michigan and Maryland. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and his Republican opponent Dave McCormick will hold their second debate next Tuesday. In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and GOP candidate Tim Sheehy have already held two debates.

Some of these debates are one-and-done. GOP challenger and former baseball star Steve Garvey goes head-to-head with Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff tonight. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Colin Allred have a single debate scheduled for Oct. 15. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and her GOP opponent Sam Brown will hold their only debate on Oct. 17. In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and her GOP opponent Eric Hovde will meet on Oct. 18. Republican Hung Cao probably wishes he’d never debated Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) after their lone meeting last week.

There may not be any debates in some high-profile races. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Republican Bernie Moreno seem likely to skip debates. Incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.) hasn’t agreed to get on stage with former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.). Hurricanes Milton and Helene have overwhelmed everything else there.

The decision to debate or not, as well as what’s said there, doesn’t always have a big impact on a Senate race. Yet for the underdog, it’s often the only way this late in the campaign to reset the race. Incumbents usually have more to lose than their challengers, especially at this late date.

So far, there haven’t been any knockout blows in the Senate debates. Beyond Cao’s comments, one of the biggest moments came when Sheehy acknowledged that some of his remarks last year about Native Americans were “insensitive.”

But Sheehy didn’t apologize, and he pushed back over immigration and campaign donations to Tester lobbyists. A Sheehy win in Montana combined with the almost guaranteed GOP pickup in West Virginia would be enough to swing control of the Senate to Republicans.

This week’s Senate contests: The Arizona Senate debate is sure to be a slugfest. Kari Lake, a Trump acolyte, will face off Wednesday against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who’s courting the state’s unique constituency of centrist Republicans and independent voters. Lake hasn’t done much to go after this key voter group, as we chronicled in August.

In Maryland, former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan has made what should’ve been an expected Democratic hold far closer than expected. Hogan, a popular figure who’s anti-Trump, is running against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, whose campaign is training its fire on what another Republican in the Senate would mean for issues like abortion rights. They’ll debate on Thursday.

And in Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) will go head-to-head tonight. This race features two candidates with national security backgrounds in a state that’s up for grabs in the presidential race too.

House highlights. There are candidate faceoffs in critical House races over the next couple of weeks as well. Democrats need to pick up four seats to win the majority. Yet thanks to redistricting, the universe of seats really in play is small, which makes the debates extra important.

Frontline Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (Maine) faced off for a second time against challenger Austin Theriault Monday night. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) will debate his GOP opponent, Mike LiPetri, tonight. Also tonight, we’ll see Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) squaring off against Democrat Janelle Stelson (more on that race below).

Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) and Republican Gabe Evans will hold their only live debate tonight. Democrat Janelle Bynum and Oregon GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer will meet tonight in the first of three debates over two weeks. GOP Rep. Zach Nunn and Democrat Lanon Baccam will face off on Tuesday. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Democrat Kirsten Engel’s debate will make good viewing.

Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) takes on Republican Alison Esposito in this Wednesday, while New York GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro debates Democrat Josh Riley on Thursday.

Some standout debates next week include Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.) taking on Sue Altman on Oct. 13 and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) debating former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) on Oct. 16.

— John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

We’re headed to Charlotte next week! Join us for an interview with Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) on Wednesday, Oct. 16, at 9 a.m. ET. We’re discussing the news of the day and how private equity drives innovation, supports jobs, and strengthens small businesses in North Carolina. RSVP!

Stelson eyes opportunity to unseat Perry

HARRISBURG, Pa. — Political newcomer Janelle Stelson sees herself as House Democrats’ best chance at defeating conservative stalwart Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

Stelson, a longtime central Pennsylvania news anchor, has a high name ID in the 10th District and is touting her journalism background to try to convince voters she has a grasp on local issues.

Part of Stelson’s pitch is warning voters that Perry, the former chair of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, is out-of-touch and too radical for the district.

“In the past 38 years, I’ve been the trusted nonpartisan voice in everyone’s living rooms,” Stelson said in an interview. “[Perry is] a career politician. He’s everything that’s wrong with Washington. I have a fresh perspective.”

On paper, Stelson is running a boilerplate Democratic campaign. She’s hit Perry on abortion, democracy issues and has expressed her desire to be a bipartisan member of Congress. She’s stuck to talking about key issues like health care and the economy.

But unlike previous cycles, where Perry’s actually improved his margins against his challengers, Stelson said there’s an environmental shift this year that is giving Democrats running in tough districts a boost.

And there are some signs that this R+5 seat will be competitive this year. Since Stelson announced her candidacy, the Cook Political Report moved Perry’s race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” in December.

Stelson has also smoked Perry on fundraising. She brought in an impressive $2.7 million in Q3.

The New Democrat Coalition’s campaign arm and New Dem individual member contributions have given nearly $50,000 to Stelson this cycle, per the group’s spokesperson. Stelson also got $1,000 from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ BOLD PAC over the summer.

Perry hasn’t filed his Q3 report yet. Perry currently has over $788,000 cash on hand as of June 30.

The DCCC viewpoint: DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene highlighted the PA-10 race as a top pickup opportunity for Democrats, defending the campaign committee’s investments in the hard-to-flip district.

“We put money there,” DelBene said of the race. “We have a great candidate and we have a Republican incumbent who is much more extreme than that district. Janelle is going to govern and focus on the needs of the community.”

House Majority PAC, the Democratic leadership-affiliated group, is up with a new ad hitting Perry on abortion. The ad accuses Perry of being “front and center” in the fight to restrict all abortions, citing his repeated co-sponsorship of the Life at Conception Act.

Still, Perry has done better in every race since 2018. Unlike other candidates in competitive races, Perry has unapologetically refused to moderate his conservative stances, even running ads about how he’s bucked his own party on some issues.

How Republicans respond: The House Freedom Caucus’ political arm has also extensively been messaging on Perry’s race.

And Perry’s campaign dismisses Stelson’s position as a pro-veteran candidate, citing Perry’s service.

Stelson, who has known Perry as a public official for years through the Harrisburg media market, argued his political positions have gotten “worse” since he first came to Congress in 2013. Stelson covered Perry’s first election to the House and moderated his 2020 debate for reelection.

“You can stick to your company line for a minute when you get in these local debates,” Stelson said. “But when you take a little bit longer and go deeper, you see exactly who he is.”

Stelson and Perry will debate one another tonight in Harrisburg.

– Mica Soellner

The Vault: Waters doesn’t like what she sees in Tim Scott

In a world where control of both the House and Senate flips in 2025, the Capitol’s most powerful lawmakers in financial services policy will likely be Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.).

That relationship — to the extent it exists — isn’t off to a good start.

We recently spoke to Waters about her agenda in 2025 if she retakes the House Financial Services Committee gavel. But enacting that agenda may hinge on Scott, who told us last month he was more interested in leading the Senate Banking Committee from the majority than securing a role in a second Trump administration.

So we asked Waters how she felt about Scott as a legislative partner. Her responses were frank, and they don’t bode well for bicameral cooperation between a Democratic House and a Republican Senate.

“I don’t have a relationship with him at all. I don’t know him. I’ve never had a conversation with him,” Waters said of Scott. It’s not unusual for ranking members on opposite sides of the Hill to not work together often, if ever.

That doesn’t mean Waters doesn’t have an opinion about Scott. “I have witnessed some of his remarks that make me very uncomfortable,” she said. “So, I don’t know what the possibilities are.”

What Scott remarks have made her uncomfortable? “Well, first of all, the way he lapdogs up to [Donald] Trump bothers me a lot,” the California Democrat replied.

More from Waters:

Zoom out: Waters’ feelings here aren’t exactly a shock. The California Democrat has frequently decried “extreme MAGA Republicans” during HFSC hearings over the years. In February, Waters said MAGA Republicans were “the biggest threat to our national and economic security.”

Scott, meanwhile, spent much of this year campaigning for Trump in a quest to be Trump’s vice president.

But there’s something to be said for an opportunity here. For one thing, the Waters-Scott pairing would be historic. Waters was the first Black lawmaker tapped to lead her powerful House committee in 2018, and Scott would be the first Black senator to lead the Senate Banking panel.

Scott and Waters also have a shared interest in reforming the housing system. That’s been a progressive priority for a while, but Scott’s interest and elevation of the issue is fairly novel for a GOP lawmaker, historically speaking.

Of course, Scott and Waters’ approaches to housing reform have fundamental differences. Scott’s approach would change how Congress oversees federal housing regulators, introduce some new financial literacy requirements and prioritize HUD housing grants in “opportunity zones.”

But Scott’s ROAD to Housing Act doesn’t actually provide more funding for housing development. That’s a problem for Waters.

“It’s not about financial literacy and other kinds of things that don’t require a lot of money, a lot of resources,” Waters told us. “It’s about having the resources. It’s about appropriations.”

Republicans aren’t convinced more federal spending will address the housing crisis. Ryann DuRant, minority spokesperson for the Senate Banking Committee, said the government had “spent trillions of taxpayer dollars that have yielded little results,” pointing to the current Black homeownership rate of about 44%, which is more or less the same as it was in 1968. That rate peaked in 2004 at 49%, but much of Black America was hit especially hard by the Great Recession following the 2008 financial crisis.

In a statement, Scott said he was “committed to working with members on both sides of the aisle.” The South Carolina Republican added that on the banking panel, he had “prioritized empowering underserved communities by introducing comprehensive solutions — from housing legislation to capital markets reform — to challenges facing Americans who have been left behind.”

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— Brendan Pedersen

THE CAMPAIGN

HMP up on the air hitting Van Orden

News: House Majority PAC, the top House Democratic super PAC, is up on the airwaves in Wisconsin’s 3rd District going after Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) on abortion rights.

The ad follows a familiar playbook for Democratic messaging in recent cycles. A local doctor — in this case, a family physician from Tomah, Wis. — slams Van Orden for comparing abortion to genocide and describing himself as “100% pro-life.”

Since 2022’s Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Van Orden has changed his tune. In 2023, he expressed support for a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother.

Van Orden is a top target for Democrats in the western Wisconsin seat, which former Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.) held for more than two decades. When Kind retired last cycle, Van Orden won the open seat by four points over Democrat Brad Pfaff.

This time around, Democrat Rebecca Cooke is challenging Van Orden. Cooke raised an eye-popping $2.75 million in Q3.

The outside investment from HMP is a sign this seat will be competitive — and expensive — come November.

Plus: The political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is launching a $200,000 ad buy targeting former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) in her campaign against Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.).

The ad, which is running in both English and Spanish, accuses Herrell of allowing “our public lands to be sold off to the highest bidder.”

“Nothing is sacred to Yvette Herrell,” the ad’s narrator says. “Not our land, not our health.”

The BOLD PAC ads are the latest development in the high-stakes rematch between Vasquez and Herrell. Vasquez’s messaging has tied Herrell to the far right of the GOP, while Republican ads have slammed Vasquez on the border and his past comments on law enforcement. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the 2nd District seat as a toss-up.

We also have fundraising news for you from this race: Vasquez raised more than $2.1 million in the third quarter for his reelection campaign.

— Max Cohen

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