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IN THIS EDITION

House Republicans could be saddled with another tiny majority

Trump looms over Senate GOP leadership race

Hawley backs Cornyn for Senate GOP leader

House Democrats to hold leadership elections on Nov. 19

Who’s in line to lead the NRCC and DCCC

THE TOP

House Republicans could be saddled with another tiny majority

Happy Friday morning.

Control of the House is still up in the air.

But if Republicans do hold onto power — and it seems like they will — Speaker Mike Johnson will again be forced to govern with a paper-thin majority.

Most top Republicans and Democrats say the GOP will end up with between 218 and 221 House seats. It’s even possible that they end up with 218 seats on the nose.

This will once again make it extraordinarily difficult for Johnson to do almost everything, ranging from passing a House rules package, to clearing a budget resolution, to passing the complicated tax-cut extension that President-elect Donald Trump is so eager to sign into law.

Johnson spent much of the fall telling donors that he was going to grow the majority, possibly to a double-digit margin.

“It’s going to be easier in the new Congress that starts in January because we’re going to have a wider margin,” Johnson said in October in a mansion in the suburbs of Philadelphia. “We’re going to have more people, and it’s going to be an easier job.”

But it’s now clear that it won’t be much easier.

Now to be sure, it’s very hard to imagine House Republicans standing in Trump’s way on just about anything. There will be a tremendous appetite to unify and push through the president’s agenda, especially during the first 100 days. The makeup of this conference is also far more MAGA-friendly than the last time Trump was in power.

“I don’t care if it’s 218, 219, 220. I don’t give a damn,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer recently told us on the campaign trail. “As long as we have the majority, we’re going to be successful.”

But there will be zero room for error. Absences, illnesses or unexpected resignations could tip the balance of power on any given day. A slim margin will make Trump’s team hesitant to pull House members into the administration.

The math: The final House composition will come down to two uncalled races in Arizona and six in California. Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) are in tough reelection contests, with Democrats feeling more optimistic about flipping Ciscomani’s seat.

In California, it’s still too close to call in the reelection races for GOP Reps. John Duarte, Mike Garcia, Michelle Steel, David Valadao and Ken Calvert. In the state’s open 47th District, it’s also neck-and-neck between Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh. Democrats have the best shot at flipping Duarte and Garcia’s seats here.

If Democrats want to take the majority, they’d have to win six of these eight seats. We’re making some assumptions here and predicting Democrats win Maine’s 2nd District, Colorado’s 8th District, Washington’s 3rd District, Ohio’s 9th District and Oregon’s 5th District. Democratic candidates are leading here, but the races aren’t called officially yet. If any of these Democrats fall, the math gets even harder for the party.

New Rules: One of the more immediate challenges for Johnson will be hashing out a new rules package to govern the House during the 119th Congress. We’re told House GOP leaders have already begun workshopping some ideas in an effort to build consensus on the overall package.

But each of the conference’s ideological factions — from the House Freedom Caucus to the Republican Governance Group to the Main Street Caucus — is expected to put forward its own ideas about the package. All those groups started serious internal discussions this week about their preferences.

A major flashpoint is going to center on the motion to vacate. Johnson, as well as moderates and members of the so-called “governing wing,” want to raise the threshold from the current one-member level and take the threat of ousting another speaker off the table.

But we’ve talked to several conservatives who are intent on keeping the MTV intact as is. It’s going to be very difficult to change the rule if Republicans only have a couple of votes to spare.

The House GOP will organize next week to consider their internal conference rules. The big package to govern the House will get a floor vote when the new Congress begins. It will need to be negotiated and introduced by the speaker.

And one other point to consider. Republicans have struggled with procedural votes all year. This will continue to be a struggle under Trump.

Taxes: A thin margin could also make Republicans’ hopes of quickly passing a big tax bill through the filibuster-dodging reconciliation process more painful.

The House GOP will need to figure out what deficit hawks in the conference are willing to stomach. Extending the Trump tax cuts alone could come with a nearly $5 trillion price tag, and that’s not counting the president-elect’s many, many new tax cut promises. A handful of Republicans could force their party to hunt for a lot more offsets, and that won’t be an easy road.

House Republicans from blue states like New York, California and New Jersey would also get a lot more leverage to fight against the cap on deducting state and local taxes, or SALT. The GOP created the $10,000 limit on SALT deductions back in 2017. Most Republicans are happy with it, even though Trump said he’d “get SALT back” during the campaign.

Allowing more SALT deductions gets pricey fast. House Republicans had a sizable enough margin in 2017 to lose votes over SALT, so lacking that cushion could get messy.

Furthermore, Politico reported that House Republicans are discussing a tax package that would offset cuts with tariffs. That would be quite complicated and challenging.

– Melanie Zanona, Jake Sherman, Max Cohen and Laura Weiss

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THE SENATE

Trump looms over Senate GOP leadership race

President-elect Donald Trump’s closest allies are giving the president-elect conflicting advice on whether to make an endorsement in the Senate Republican leadership race, leaving the three candidates in suspense as they work to lock in the requisite votes.

Trump insiders tell us they don’t expect him to get involved. Yet as with all things related to the former and future president, that’s far from a guarantee. In the meantime, prominent Trump loyalists have started to mobilize on Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) behalf. And they’re pressuring Trump to formally back Scott ahead of next Wednesday’s election.

Other Trump confidants, like Sens. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) and Steve Daines (R-Mont.), are urging him to stay out of it entirely, believing there’s little upside for Trump. Both Mullin and Daines are supporting Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who said Thursday it’s in Trump’s “best interest” to forgo an endorsement.

In an interview, Mullin told us that’s exactly the case he’s been making to Trump during several conversations since Tuesday.

“There’s no point in wasting the political capital and making two senators mad at you,” Mullin said.

This is new: We’re told Trump has been bringing up the leadership race unprompted during his post-election calls with GOP senators, signaling an interest in how the race is playing out.

Still, those same Republicans say Trump hasn’t shown any signs that he’s preparing to make an endorsement.

Scott, however, is actively seeking it. Scott is telling senators he’s the best person to carry out Trump’s agenda in part because of their close personal relationship and the fact that, unlike Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Scott has never been publicly at odds with Trump.

Scott is also reminding Republicans that Trump’s incoming chief of staff, Susie Wiles, ran his 2010 gubernatorial campaign, so they’d have that relationship on Day One.

Allies of the Florida Republican have been resurfacing old clips of Thune and Cornyn criticizing Trump or suggesting they wouldn’t support him. Donald Trump Jr.’s criticisms of the pair from earlier this year are making the rounds in conservative media circles.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a Scott supporter, said a Trump endorsement is “probably what Rick’s going to need to become majority leader.”

Mullin dismissed this pressure campaign as self-serving, saying Scott “should try to win it without the president.”

“Rick doesn’t believe he can win it if he doesn’t have the president’s endorsement,” Mullin added.

Thune and Cornyn have worked to repair their Trump relationships. Thune and Trump spoke as recently as Wednesday. And Mullin said the Thune-Trump relationship is solid, “definitely a better relationship than the other one” — referring to Cornyn.

Will he or won’t he? Trump has always had the chance to shake up the race. But after his decisive victory on Tuesday, the possibility of a Trump endorsement has quickly become a focal point in the contest given the considerable weight it would carry.

There are plenty of good reasons for Trump to eschew an endorsement. First and foremost, there’s the risk that whoever Trump backs doesn’t win the race. This is entirely possible given that it’s a secret ballot election.

That would start things off on the wrong foot in 2025 between Trump and the eventual majority leader. Plus, remember that Trump is usually hesitant to endorse in an all-GOP field when it’s not clear to him who will win.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE SENATE

Hawley backs Cornyn for Senate GOP leader

News: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is backing Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the race to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader.

It’s the first public endorsement for Cornyn, who’s running against Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). And it comes from someone who’s part of a crucial voting bloc in the leadership race. Hawley was just reelected on Tuesday.

In a statement shared first with Punchbowl News, Hawley said “nobody has done more” to help Republicans take back the majority than Cornyn, noting the Texas Republican’s fundraising efforts.

Hawley also cited Cornyn’s support for reauthorizing a radiation exposure compensation program that lapsed earlier this year. This has been a big focus for Hawley.

“[Cornyn] has voiced his support for the RECA compromise that would fairly compensate hundreds of thousands of Americans poisoned by their government, including so many in Missouri,” Hawley said.

Cornyn, Hawley added, will “work closely and effectively with President Trump to deliver on the promise of our new majority.”

Hawley has been among the most critical of McConnell’s leadership, so it’s notable that he’s backing Cornyn, a close McConnell lieutenant.

Cornyn has been conducting his leadership bid mostly behind the scenes. Cornyn has centered his pitch on his ability to lead Republicans through next year’s tax fight, as well as his fundraising strength.

— John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

THE HOUSE

House Democrats to hold leadership elections on Nov. 19

House Democrats will elect their party leaders on Nov. 19. We scooped this for you last night.

There won’t be any drama at the top of the Democratic Caucus. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Minority Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar will all be reelected, very likely unanimously.

One thing to note here — Democrats haven’t decided yet whether to hold these leadership elections as if they’re in the majority or minority. This matters because of a potential Democratic Caucus vice chair race if they’re in the majority. But right now, that’s not looking like it will happen.

Democrats also won’t formally organize their committees — picking either committee chairs or ranking members — until sometime in December. Top Democrats say there’s no need to do so while the battle for the House still has to be decided.

Here’s Aguilar, who will oversee these elections:

– John Bresnahan

NRCC AND DCCC

Who’s in line to lead the NRCC and DCCC

The House has yet to be called, but we wanted to take a moment to explore who could lead each of the campaign committees next cycle. This will be a huge job, especially on the Republican side. The president’s party historically loses seats in their first midterm election.

NRCC: Rep. Richard Hudson, the NRCC chair, hasn’t yet signaled what he plans to do. Sources close to the North Carolina Republican said he’s waiting until the House results are settled. Hudson will need to make a formal decision fairly soon, with GOP leadership elections scheduled for next Wednesday.

“With votes still being counted, Chairman Hudson is focused on doing his job and finishing the cycle strong,” NRCC spokesperson Jack Pandol said in a statement. “He will make his intentions known soon.”

Most senior GOP sources expect Hudson to stay on. And it’s hard to imagine Hudson would face a credible challenge. Republicans are feeling confident they’ll keep the House, albeit by a slim margin, which would be a big win considering how the entire 118th Congress went.

If Hudson doesn’t run for NRCC chair, GOP Reps. Rudy Yakym (Ind.) and Kat Cammack (Fla.) are expected to jump into the race. Rep.-elect Brian Jack, a former political advisor to President-elect Donald Trump and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, could also be in the mix.

DCCC: Unlike House Republicans, the DCCC job is appointed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. But those conversations are quiet right now, given the House has yet to be called.

DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene was seen by members as a good choice to stay on, at least before Tuesday. But the next steps are unclear as votes are still being counted in California and some other states.

Some House Democrats are now pushing for Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) to chair the party’s campaign arm. She isn’t angling for the job or seeking it out, we’re told. Of course, this is Jeffries’ call.

Senate side: As of right now, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is the only Democrat who has expressed interest in leading the DSCC, while Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is so far the lone contender for the NRSC post.

— Melanie Zanona and Max Cohen

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