Inside the House GOP's Latino problem

IN THIS EDITION

The Latino vote could crush Republicans

Stratton wins and AIPAC’s mixed bag

The Senate’s big day of hearings

Vault: Housing fight becomes a waiting game

THE TOP

The Latino vote could crush Republicans

Happy Wednesday morning.

House Republicans are very aware that the same Latino voters who propelled the GOP to the majority in 2024 could desert them this fall.

Swing districts with large Latino populations in Texas, Florida, Arizona and California will determine control of the House. Republicans made serious inroads last cycle with these voters, especially among Hispanic men. GOP candidates were buoyed by cost-of-living concerns and the appeal of President Donald Trump on the ballot.

But the Latino voting bloc swings widely between the two parties, and the 2024 election feels like a lifetime ago. Trump is implementing mass deportations targeting many Hispanic communities, prices remain stubbornly high and the job market is showing weakness. Now, some in the GOP are growing nervous that these same voters could revert back to Democrats — or just stay home.

Recent elections have given Democrats hope, too. In November, Democratic candidates won the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, two states with significant Latino populations.

“Our Hispanic voters didn’t show up,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson acknowledged in an interview during the House GOP retreat last week.

Speaker Mike Johnson was even more blunt: “We got a little hiccup with some of the Hispanic, Latino voters because some of the immigration enforcement was viewed to be overzealous.”

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) has been loudly sounding the alarm that Trump’s deportation regime is unpopular among her majority-Latino Miami-area seat.

Plus, Democrats flipped the Miami mayor’s seat for the first time since 1997. More recently, robust turnout from Latinos in the Texas Senate Democratic primary and a special election upset excited Democrats.

Those Texas results even led House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to brag that Republicans went too far and ended up drawing a “dummymander” in the Lone Star State.

Republicans take notice. At a House GOP Conference meeting on Tuesday, Hudson presented polling with a concerning message — Hispanic voters weren’t aware of the One Big Beautiful Bill, Republicans’ most important legislative achievement.

This comes as post-election polls show a nosedive in support for Trump among Hispanic voters. A CNN poll last month found that Trump had lost 19 points on his approval rating with Hispanic voters over a year. A new Economist/YouGov poll found Hispanic voters would back a Democratic candidate over a GOP one by a 43% to 27% margin.

Yet Hudson suggested that Hispanic voters may stay home rather than vote for a Democrat.

“I think it’s more likely they don’t vote at all than they swing back to the failed policies that they have rejected for decades,” Hudson said of Hispanic voters.

In his presentation on Tuesday, Hudson also argued that data shows that Hispanics still trust the party more on the economy than Democrats. And Republicans like Johnson claim that under new DHS leadership, Trump’s immigration agenda is on “course correction mode.”

On the ground. Here’s something to consider – the battleground for control of the House is getting smaller as mid-decade redistricting goes on.

To win a sizable majority, Democrats will have to flip seats that Trump won by large margins. That’s tough to do even in the most favorable of years. Democrats only won a handful of those seats in 2018.

That’s where Latino voters come in. A Trump +10 seat in a Hispanic-majority district could trend rapidly back to Democrats because Latinos vacillate between the parties.

And if Hispanic voters are swinging back toward Democrats, there’s a few things to keep in mind.

1) Republicans will lose offensive opportunities, and it’ll become harder to oust Frontliners in purple seats with large blocs of Latinos. This is critical for Reps. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Adam Gray (D-Calif.) and Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.).

2) Democrats will find it easier to oust GOP incumbents like Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Gabe Evans (R-Colo.).

3) Texas is at the center of the fight for Latino voters. Voters in the Rio Grande Valley swung heavily to the right at the presidential level from 2016 to 2024, turning Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Henry Cuellar’s (D-Texas) seats into top GOP targets. But Republicans need that trend to continue to take out these two Democrats.

Democrats believe that trend is reversing. They’re testing that theory with Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music superstar running against Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas).

Trump won that district by 18 points. But Pulido told us that Trump’s immigration policies have upended the local economy and voters have soured on De La Cruz.

Here’s Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) summing up the Democratic optimism in his home state:

“There are five majority-Latino counties in Texas where more Democrats came and voted in our primaries than voted in those counties in the general election. The Latino voters are swinging back in Texas in a big way.”

4) Republicans are banking on an upcoming redraw of Florida’s congressional map to help bolster their razor-thin House majority. Yet that means assuming Cuban voters in South Florida are sticking with the GOP as the embattled communist regime teeters on the verge of economic collapse. With the situation so fluid, that’s no sure thing.

SAVE Act update. Sen. Eric Schmitt’s (R-Mo.) amendment package for the SAVE America Act is here. It addresses Trump’s demands for changes to the underlying bill, including an attempt to defuse GOP divisions over the president’s demand to significantly restrict mail-in ballots. The Senate floor debate over the legislation will resume at noon today.

– Max Cohen, Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

TODAY: Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.) joins us at 8:30 a.m. ET to discuss the news of the day and digital well-being for kids and teenagers. RSVP!

ICYMI: Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-Va.) joined us for a conversation Tuesday on U.S. and tech innovation. Walkinshaw also discussed funding for the Iran war and DHS negotiations. Read all about it here. You can also watch the full video here.

LAND OF LINCOLN

Stratton wins and AIPAC’s mixed bag

There was a little something for everyone in Tuesday’s Democratic primary results in Illinois. Let’s dive in.

Stratton completes Senate comeback. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton defeated Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly to win the Democratic Senate primary. Krishnamoorthi was the polling leader for most of this race and outspent his opponents by a significant margin.

But Stratton surged in the race’s final stretch. Stratton raised comparatively little money. But she was boosted heavily by a super PAC that Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker poured millions of dollars into. Pritzker’s support infuriated the Congressional Black Caucus, which was backing Kelly.

Stratton allies attacked Krishnamoorthi from the left, urging the five-term House member to take tougher stances against ICE. Krishnamoorthi allies tried to boost Kelly in the closing days of the campaign in an apparent attempt to siphon Black votes away from Stratton.

Stratton will be heavily favored to win the general election and become the third Black woman currently serving in the Senate, joining Sens. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) and Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.). Stratton would also be the fourth Black senator from Illinois, joining Democrats Barack Obama, Carol Moseley Braun and Roland Burris.

A mixed bag for AIPAC. AIPAC and its allied groups spent more than $21 million in four open House seats. The pro-Israel organization went two for four. Not terrible, but also not a great return on investment.

The wins: One came in Illinois’ 2nd District, with Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, and another in Illinois’ 8th District, with former Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.).

Miller beat former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) in the race to replace Kelly. This came despite Jackson spending weeks in the headlines with the death of his father, the legendary civil rights figure. Robert Peters, who was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), trailed far behind Miller.

Bean beat Junaid Ahmed, another progressive candidate critical of Israel. Bean is a former Blue Dog who last served in the House more than a decade ago.

The losses: In the 7th District, state Rep. La Shawn Ford prevailed despite some $5 million in spending from an AIPAC-backed group benefitting his opponent Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin.

Ford was backed by retiring incumbent Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.). He spent just $55,000 on ads and weathered nearly $2 million in attack ads from Fairshake.

But the race that drew the most hand-wringing was in the 9th District where Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss prevailed. This is a mixed outcome for AIPAC. A super PAC backed by the group dropped $1.4 million to block Biss and $4.4 million to help state Sen. Laura Fine, who came in third.

Yet AIPAC avoided the worst outcome for them: a win by Kat Abughazaleh, who is sharply critical of Israel.

— Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen

ADMIN SHAKE-UP

The Senate’s big day of hearings

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) will get his first taste of life on the other side of the dais today, where he’ll be confronted over the fraught situation surrounding the Department of Homeland Security.

Mullin will testify this morning before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee for his nomination to lead DHS.

Mullin’s confirmation is expected to sail through the Senate. HSGAC already scheduled a vote for Thursday morning. Senate GOP leaders are planning to put the nomination on the floor by the end of next week. Most Senate Republicans — and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) — have praised the pick.

The Rand factor. Notably, HSGAC Chair Rand Paul (R-Ky.) won’t tip his hand on his questions or whether he’ll support Mullin. The pair have history.

Paul told CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday that he promised the Trump administration he’d move quickly on Mullin’s nomination but never pledged his vote. Paul added Mullin will face “sufficient scrutiny.”

Democrats’ stand. The hearing comes as DHS has been shut down for more than a month. Senate Democrats remain incensed over two fatal January shootings by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis and demanding reforms to ICE. Mullin’s stock trades are also drawing attention.

Democrats are promising intense questioning of Mullin despite senatorial courtesy.

Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.), HSGAC’s top Democrat, will raise concerns about DHS’ conduct, staffing cuts and the risk of domestic attacks amid the Iran war, according to prepared remarks we obtained. Peters plans to tell Mullin he has “reservations” about the Oklahoma Republican’s “readiness to take on such a significant role at such a critical time.”

“The need for reform and our constitutional responsibility is way more important than any courtesy to colleagues,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) added.

Gabbard’s gauntlet. Meanwhile, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is sure to face fierce questions Wednesday on the Iran war, one day after a key lieutenant, Joe Kent, resigned over the conflict.

Gabbard, who once sold “No War With Iran” t-shirts, tepidly addressed the Iranian situation on Tuesday. Gabbard will also face questions on a FISA extension and her role in a January FBI raid of a Georgia elections office.

Republicans on the Intelligence Committee said they believed President Donald Trump retains full confidence in Gabbard. “I don’t know why he wouldn’t at this stage of the game,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.).

Also appearing with Gabbard at the worldwide threats hearing will be FBI Director Kash Patel and CIA Director John Ratcliffe.

— Laura Weiss and Anthony Adragna

Vault: Housing fight becomes a waiting game

The Senate and House remain locked in a battle of political will over housing affordability legislation. Both chambers are now digging in for what could be a lengthy stalemate over the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act.

House Republicans are threatening to initiate a formal conference process as they try to drag Senate leaders to the negotiating table. But key senators are betting that if they’re patient, President Donald Trump will eventually force the House GOP to swallow the Senate’s legislation.

If and when Trump — who’s been preoccupied with the SAVE America Act and the war in Iran — wades into the housing debate will have a big impact on which chamber can keep the upper hand.

The battle lines. Despite the bicameral tensions, some Senate Republicans are leaving the door open to changes by the House.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday that while he’d prefer the House just pass the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, the Senate could agree to a conference process if the House pushed for one. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) told us Tuesday he was “pleased” by Thune’s comments.

But it’s far from clear there would be the votes to go to conference in the Senate, and that process could just snuff out the whole effort.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), the Banking Committee’s top Democrat, is towing a hard line that the House needs to take up the Senate’s bill.

“Anyone who wants to find another delay or hang this bill up will have to explain to the American people why they think lowering housing costs is not an urgent priority for the American people,” Warren said.

– Brendan Pedersen and Laura Weiss

AND THERE’S MORE

Collins’ staff moves. There are some notable staff changes in Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-Maine) office as she gears up to run for reelection. Steve Abbott, Collins’ longtime chief of staff, will move over to run her campaign. Abbott has been Collins’ chief for 25 years and managed all her reelection campaigns starting in 2002.

Katie Brown, currently Collins’ legislative director and chief counsel, will serve as chief of staff. Brown has been with Collins since 2013. And Annie Clark, who was a constant fixture in the Capitol hallways as Collins’ communications director from 2015-2025, is returning as deputy chief of staff. Clark was most recently downtown at ROKK Solutions.

Financial services staff moves. Charles Dahan is teaming up with veteran financial services lobbyist Justin Daly and joining Daly Consulting Group as a managing director. Dahan most recently served as legislative director and adviser to House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain and previously worked for now-House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.).

Approps latest. Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) is leading FSGG subcommittee Democrats in a request for the panel to hold DOGE oversight hearings.

– Heather Caygle and Brendan Pedersen

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