The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The minibus is here, and how Johnson handled it

Crapo pans Wyden-Smith tax bill to GOP colleagues

Cantwell, Raimondo talk TikTok as Senate path remains unclear

Yellen to tout the Biden tax vision

THE TOP

The minibus is here, and how Johnson handled it

Happy Thursday morning.

New: House and Senate leaders released the six-bill, 1,012-page minibus package just before 3 a.m. They’re scrambling to get a floor vote in the House tomorrow, followed by a Senate vote ASAP in order to avoid a partial government shutdown at midnight Friday.

You can find the $1.2 trillion bill here. Here’s a summary of the bill from House Appropriations Committee Democrats. Here’s a House GOP summary.

On Speaker Johnson: “Don’t bet against me,” Speaker Mike Johnson told us Wednesday.

Well, Washington has been betting against Johnson since the Louisiana Republican ascended to the speaker’s chair. And most of those bets have paid off.

This particular bet was that the spending bill text would be released Wednesday before midnight. We won. Barely.

But if all goes according to plan, by Friday, Johnson will have cleared a massive hurdle in his nascent speakership — fully funding the federal government through FY2024.

Let’s not go crazy, though. The fiscal year began nearly six months ago, so this achievement is pretty late. Johnson and his GOP colleagues didn’t notch any major policy victories either; preventing the Biden administration from banning gas stoves won’t save the majority. House GOP conservatives have grown skeptical of the speaker as they head into the spring with little to show on the legislative side. The budget deal is essentially a freeze with perhaps a little cut after inflation, but Republicans promised a lot more when they took over in January 2023.

Yet there’s something to note here about Johnson and his style. He’s settled into being a fairly standard Republican speaker for the most part, unwilling to play the games of the hardline right and jamming through legislation that the GOP conference broadly accepts.

1) Secret talks: The mega-minibus bill was hashed out behind closed doors by the White House, Johnson and the other Big Four congressional leaders, especially the endgame. Far from decentralizing power, Johnson kept the leadership — meaning his office — in control of everything.

2) Wins. This is an actual compromise. Republicans and Democrats both got some wins. Democrats are touting 12,000 Special Immigrant Visas for Afghans who helped the United States during the long war in that embattled country, as well as more money for childcare. They blocked nearly every Republican “poison pill” across the six bills. Republicans are crowing about saving gas stoves, increasing the number of ICE detention beds, more border patrol agents, cuts to foreign aid and preventing the State Department from flying non-sanctioned flags at U.S. diplomatic compounds.

3) Ignoring the HFC. At a certain point, senior House Republicans learn that dealing with the House Freedom Caucus is like nailing Jello to a wall. Johnson has learned this too. He kept them in the loop and listened to their concerns but ultimately, Johnson went his own way on the dual spending packages.

Case in point: The speaker is waiving the 72-hour rule in order to avert a shutdown Friday. Some hardliners are complaining, but ultimately, Johnson isn’t bending to their demands.

4) FRA is reality. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was pushed out, in part, for cutting the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which conservatives saw as a bad deal. Guess what: Johnson kept the deal in place. He was forced to by both politics and circumstance. Johnson needed to bring the spending fight to an end because he had a weak hand. And the reality is that the FRA is pretty good for Republicans, which conservatives eventually figured out.

5) No shutdown. A shutdown would’ve been really easy for Johnson. The speaker could’ve shored up his right flank by showing that he was “willing to fight” with Schumer and President Joe Biden. But the House GOP leadership took a shutdown off the table early. Why? Because shutdowns are useless and Republicans would’ve lost the PR war handily.

OK, but the year isn’t over. Johnson faces some big decisions in the near future.

Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Johnson said Wednesday that his next order of business is figuring out a way to have the House consider foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Johnson didn’t show his cards here but did allow that GOP leaders have considered moving the bills separately or even converting them into a “loan,” mostly at the behest of former President Donald Trump.

Yet Johnson has to tread lightly. The Senate has passed its bill with 70 votes. Patience among Ukraine and Israel backers is growing thin. Two discharge petitions are already gathering signatures. Johnson needs to be decisive here.

FISA. The federal government’s surveillance authority expires in April. Johnson has tried to have two warring chairs — Ohio GOP Reps. Jim Jordan and Mike Turner — craft a compromise FISA bill. This will be a big test of his refereeing capabilities.

FAA. There is a lot going on in the aviation world. Boeing’s problems are well documented. The U.S.’ major airlines are brawling over adding additional slots to Washington Reagan National Airport. The FAA is a major bill.

Fundraising. The NRCC got absolutely shellacked last month by the DCCC. Johnson’s campaign committee raised $8.1 million. Compare that to the DCCC, which raised $14.5 million.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

Ready. Set. RSVP! Punchbowl News Managing Editor Heather Caygle will interview Rep. John Joyce (R-Pa.) on Thursday, April 18 at 9 a.m. ET. This conversation, presented by CTIA, will focus on the news of the day and how 5G supports America’s global competitiveness. RSVP here!

Crapo pans Wyden-Smith tax bill to GOP colleagues

The Wyden-Smith tax bill is in deep trouble.

The Senate Finance Committee’s top Republican, Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho, told GOP colleagues privately on Wednesday that he doesn’t want to pass a tax bill this year, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the conversation.

Crapo spoke about persistent problems with the legislation after negotiations on the Wyden-Smith deal broke down last week.

Crapo’s remarks came during Republicans’ weekly policy lunch on Wednesday. According to one attendee, Crapo made a “chopping” motion with his hand while declaring he wouldn’t do a deal with Democrats on taxes this year.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told Republicans at the lunch that he hopes they’ll back Crapo’s position on the tax bill, according to the sources. It’s no shocker that McConnell is supporting the Finance Committee’s top Republican on this. The two are close allies. But it underscores the pressure on GOP senators to remain united against the bill.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) also spoke up against the tax bill and its child tax credit expansion during the lunch, according to two sources.

Romney’s opposition is especially notable because he’s been a leading GOP voice in favor of expanding the child credit and has suggested bipartisan deal-making to do it. But Romney also prefers his own plan, which includes pay-fors that Democrats wouldn’t support.

Stalled talks: The bleak GOP lunch talk came after Crapo and Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) traded offers for changes to the tax bill in an attempt to address Senate GOP concerns. The bill, which expands the child tax credit and restores key business tax breaks, sailed through the House.

But Wyden and Crapo both rejected each other’s proposals last week. That’s left a standoff that’s souring the situation even further.

Democrats offered to swap out a piece of the bill allowing families to use prior-year earnings to claim the child tax credit. But that didn’t go far enough for Senate Republicans to lend their support, according to two sources familiar with the negotiations.

The Wyden-Smith deal has been stalled in the Senate for weeks. It has support from most Democrats, but only a few Republicans have publicly backed it.

Tax bill’s final play: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer put the House bill on the Senate’s legislative calendar Wednesday night, a necessary procedural step before taking any action on it. But doing so doesn’t necessarily mean that Schumer will eventually try to bring it up.

Schumer has been supportive of the bill, but he likely won’t try to advance it unless there’s sufficient GOP support to help clear the 60-vote threshold. It’s not clear that there would be enough Republican votes to overcome Crapo’s objections.

The bill’s backers had hoped for it to be attached to a separate legislative vehicle to smooth the Senate process. Now a floor vote appears to be the only possible path.

There’s no hard deadline for the tax bill, and hopes are already dimming. The bill’s prospects will only get worse with tax filing season ending soon.

— Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

Cantwell, Raimondo talk TikTok as Senate path remains unclear

News: Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo spoke by phone earlier this week about Congress’ efforts to address TikTok, among other issues, according to two people briefed on the conversation.

The phone call, which hasn’t been previously reported, comes as Senate leaders have yet to decide how to handle the House-passed bill that forces TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company or face a U.S. ban.

It also comes amid questions about whether the Biden administration will make a more concerted legislative push for the House-passed bill, which is at risk of stalling out absent a real pressure campaign from the White House.

During the call with Cantwell, Raimondo reiterated the administration’s view that Congress should act to counter the national security threats posed by TikTok, according to the sources. Raimondo has generally praised the House effort in the past.

Biden has said he would sign the House bill if it reaches his desk, and White House officials have talked it up in recent press briefings.

What’s next? A classified briefing for a select group of senators Wednesday left more questions than answers about whether the House’s bill will ever make it to Biden’s desk.

While senators expressed grave concerns about TikTok after the briefing, the path forward is unclear as two powerful committee chairs appear to be split.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) told reporters Wednesday that if Congress doesn’t act this year, “we missed a huge opportunity.” Warner added that “there’s a reason” why a House committee unanimously approved the legislation after receiving the same classified briefing. Warner endorsed that bill shortly after the House passed it.

“How many times do you get 352 votes for anything in the House?” Warner said.

Meanwhile, Cantwell is signaling she wants to pump the brakes so that senators can better understand the impacts of the legislation and avoid unintended consequences.

Cantwell also suggested holding a joint hearing with Warner’s panel — something supporters of the House bill fear would likely sap momentum from the effort.

“It’s important to get it right,” Cantwell told reporters. “In this institution, we’re full of people who want to promote things just to promote them. But they don’t have the cause-and-effect that we need.”

Close to the vest: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer isn’t tipping his hand. Schumer said Wednesday he’s still talking with fellow Democrats about the best path forward. The New York Democrat has not committed to putting a bill on the floor but has expressed support for taking action against TikTok in the past.

Some senators have proposed modest changes to the House bill that wouldn’t alter the main thrust of it. For example, Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) suggested lengthening the window of time for TikTok to be sold before a U.S. ban is triggered.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

Yellen to tout the Biden tax vision

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will appear before the Senate Finance Committee this morning and highlight the key tax proposals from the administration’s FY2025 budget plan – from a bigger child tax credit to new taxes on the wealthy.

“As a whole, the budget will enable us to continue to grow our economy and support workers and families while upholding our commitment to fiscal responsibility and reducing the deficit,” Yellen will tell senators, according to a copy of her prepared remarks we obtained.

Administration officials typically make the rounds among the committees after the president’s budget release. But today, all the tax talk hits harder given the big 2025 tax cliff next year under the 2017 Trump tax cut law.

Yellen’s main message will be that the president wants to invest in programs like the child tax credit, low-income housing tax credit, earned income tax credit and a subsidy for health insurance premiums that she’ll emphasize can lower costs for families and workers.

On the revenue side, Yellen plans to highlight a “Billionaire Minimum Tax” proposal on the wealthiest households, increasing a levy on stock buybacks and raising estate and gift taxes.

Here are some more key points from Yellen’s planned testimony:

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There’s a plug for the 15% global minimum tax deal, which the Biden administration negotiated internationally. It stalled in Congress. “President Biden and I continue to urge Congress to act so that the United States plays its part in the global minimum tax deal, which is currently being implemented in jurisdictions around the world to end the race to the bottom in corporate taxation,” Yellen plans to say.

→	Yellen also plans to mention opposition to “misguided proposals that will grow the deficit by offering large tax breaks to the wealthy and big corporations.”

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Yellen will take time to praise the IRS’ modernization effort, thanks largely to extra funding from Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act. She plans to highlight the agency’s crackdown on corporate jet usage and efforts to go after millionaires’ unpaid taxes. Clearly, the administration is looking at the private plane push as a winning message.

Yellen’s planned testimony kicks off by touting the Biden administration’s “historic economic recovery” while also recognizing there are plenty of families still struggling with high prices. That’s the kind of economic talk we’re hearing a lot from the administration, as it navigates some good economic results along with some lingering gloom.

— Laura Weiss

THE MONEY GAME

It’s that time again. The first quarter of 2024 is coming to a close and the call for campaign dues is getting louder. Look at this invite we got for a fundraiser dinner hosted tonight by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

So House Democrats, you heard it here first — if you haven’t paid those dues, you better open the checkbook tonight. By the way, a Democratic aide noted to us that the percentage of dues paid is up under Jeffries and DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene.

— Heather Caygle

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