The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

House Republicans’ drama-filled week ends in a reconciliation win

Republicans exhale after tariff pause

Craig’s trek across Minnesota

The Texas Senate primary gets nasty

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House Republicans’ drama-filled week ends in a reconciliation win

Welcome to The Readback, our weekend digest featuring the best of Punchbowl News this week. We’ll share some of our scoops, analysis and Capitol Hill insight you won’t find anywhere else. We’ve also included a few of our favorite outside reads from the week.

It’s becoming a familiar story: The House Republican leadership is barreling toward a floor vote critical to President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda. Then there’s a hiccup or a delay. It’s not clear if Speaker Mike Johnson has the votes. And at the last moment, House GOP leadership pulls it off. Cue Republican cheers on the House floor.

Let’s go back to where this rollercoaster of a week began.

One week ago, the Senate passed an amended version of the budget resolution that Republicans need to unlock reconciliation, following an all-night vote-a-rama. Reconciliation is the process Republicans are using to dodge a Senate filibuster on a tax, spending cut, defense and border funding bill. The budget blueprint sets tax-and-spending targets for committees involved in the bill.

Senate Republicans’ budget resolution left House-passed targets in place, including a $1.5 trillion minimum for spending cuts. But they set very different standards for Senate panels, totaling just a $4 billion floor for reductions.

House Freedom Caucus members and other conservatives fumed. Even House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), a fiscal hawk, bashed the Senate’s far lower spending-cut target.

All around the Capitol, everyone wondered what would happen, making predictions and gaming out what Johnson would need to work some magic.

The initial whip count on Monday night turned up a big number of undecided or outright “no” votes from Republicans. House GOP leaders had their work cut out for them.

A White House meeting on Tuesday flipped a number of no votes, but not the most hardline members who were still opposed to the plan. Trump pulled out the hard sell at an NRCC dinner on Tuesday night. The setting underscored the political power Trump wields over his party.

Still, it wasn’t enough. Holdouts made clear their trust issues were with the Senate — and with good reason. Some Republican senators aren’t comfortable with the House’s spending-cut ambitions, particularly when it comes to cutting hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicaid. To be fair, some House Republicans feel the same way.

The GOP leadership still barreled ahead toward a vote on Wednesday evening. But in a familiar scene, the vote before the budget resolution remained open as Johnson tried to lock in the votes.

I was waiting with a big group of reporters by an office off the House floor where Johnson had been huddling with holdouts. The speaker came out and told us the vote was off. He’d “probably” try again in the morning. Johnson then worked through several different plans overnight to try to move more than a dozen Republicans from ‘no’ to ‘yes.’

On Thursday morning, we heard Johnson would hold a press conference in the Capitol with Senate Majority Leader John Thune. I crowded in with other reporters around a cluster of TV cameras in the cramped space right by the speaker’s balcony.

Johnson announced he was committed to finding at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts. Thune said the Senate’s “ambition” was to get in alignment with the House’s spending-cut goals.

Thune’s statement was vague and didn’t lock him into anything. It was hard to see how that would satisfy the dug-in opponents. However, after a big group of HFC members and other conservatives packed into a room with leadership by the House floor, they nearly all flipped to yes. All but two House Republicans voted for the budget resolution in the end.

Hardliners say they saw enough from Thune and Johnson to convince them their spending-cut ambitions would be met. But this is going to be a brutally difficult exercise in the coming weeks or months. Writing the final reconciliation bill is the hard part. Republicans are nowhere yet on quelling the vast internal divides they face over massive cuts to federal spending.

As Johnson likes to say — stay tuned!

What I’m watching: I’ve had back-to-back weeks with season finales of The White Lotus and Yellowjackets, which have both had incredible runs the last few weeks. I won’t spoil anyone on how things shook out in Thailand for the White Lotus guests, but Max Cohen and I discussed it on this week’s podcast if you’re a fan too!

– Laura Weiss

You can find The Readback in your inbox every Saturday at 8 a.m. And don’t hesitate to reach out to readback@punchbowl.news with feedback. Enjoy The Readback.

Republicans exhale after tariff pause

For several days, the White House rebuffed speculation that President Donald Trump was considering a temporary pause of the sweeping tariff regime he unveiled last week.

Congressional Republicans, already worried about the stock market nosedive, privately raised the alarm about consumer price hikes and how to manage the political fallout.

Then, suddenly, Trump threw them a lifeline, albeit a temporary one.

During Republicans’ lunch meeting on Wednesday, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) stood up to inform his colleagues about the pause Trump had just announced on his Truth Social account. According to multiple Republican senators, the reaction was overwhelmingly positive. “A sigh of relief” is how one senator described it.

“How ‘bout that hockey stick?” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), wearing a big smile as he walked out of the lunch meeting. That was a reference to the dramatic surge in the stock market that immediately followed Trump’s announcement.

“The markets have spoken for themselves, sending a message that they want to see progress made,” Rounds said. “The sooner we get stability and a plan for moving forward with it, the better off the market’s gonna look.”

Of course, in the days since, stocks have fallen even lower. Despite the pause in reciprocal tariffs, Trump hiked tariffs on China. Beijing retaliated. The tariff rate is now well above 100%.

Despite the temporary rejoicing from Republicans, the bigger issue — economic uncertainty — is far from resolved. We’ll be right back here in 90 days, wondering what Trump will do next, Republicans mused.

“Hope for the best,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a critic of Trump on tariffs. “We’re still a long way from this thing being concluded. I don’t know a strategy, I don’t know what his end goal is, what he’s going to be satisfied with.”

TLDR: This has been a hellish stretch for the GOP, a historically pro-free-trade bunch that detests tariffs. But Trump, for all of his flip-flopping over the years, has been remarkably consistent in his belief that tariffs are an effective tool to combat the deindustrialization of the U.S. economy.

And as we know, going against Trump is a recipe for failure if you’re a Republican leader in Congress. That’s why, despite their long-held opposition to across-the-board tariffs, Senate GOP leaders worked feverishly to kill a disapproval resolution earlier this month aimed at reversing the national emergency declaration Trump used for his initial tariffs targeting Canada.

Despite the pause, Democrats and the handful of GOP senators willing to push back against Trump intend to go full-steam ahead with another disapproval resolution. The measure will be ready to hit the floor by the time the Senate returns from the two-week recess.

Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) were the only Republicans who voted for the last one. That was enough for the measure to pass. Paul predicted there could be even more Republicans who join them for the next vote, “particularly if the economy shows signs of faltering.”

Regardless of whether there’s a massive uprising among Senate Republicans, these disapproval resolutions aren’t going anywhere in the House, where GOP leaders used a rule vote this past week to prevent these measures from coming to the floor.

What I’m watching: I love this time of year because it means the weather is getting warmer (except for this week) and, most importantly, it’s baseball season! The Phillies are off to a great start. I’ll refrain from making any bold predictions so as not to jinx anything…

— Andrew Desiderio

Craig’s trek across Minnesota

Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) is embarking on a cross-state town hall tour, flagging to constituents that her Republican colleagues are ducking from facing them and aren’t listening to their concerns about the Trump administration.

Democrats have made constituent town halls their main avenue for getting their message across, but Craig’s statewide tour comes amid speculation about a potential Senate run.

This week, I spoke with Craig about what she plans to tell GOP constituents and about her future career plans.

We got some news from Craig that she plans to announce her Senate intentions “in the next few weeks.”

But more interestingly, the Minnesota Democrat talked about how she plans to tie her GOP colleagues and President Donald Trump to rising costs and their pocketbooks.

Craig will spend the next two weeks visiting four Minnesota Republican districts to drive her message home.

She will start with her own town hall in the state’s Second District then head out to face the constituents of GOP Reps. Michelle Fischbach, Pete Stauber, Brad Finstad and Whip Tom Emmer.

“I came back just a little pissed off that Democrats were not in the majority. I didn’t think that that had to be the case,” Craig told us. “We have to be laser-focused on what our constituents are focused about… we can’t get distracted by all the shiny objects that the Trump administration puts in front of us.”

Craig has had an impressive tenure in the House since flipping a Republican-held district in 2018.

Last year, she was elected the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, toppling longtime committee leader Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.). Craig also won the post over Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), another senior member, who was essentially next in line for the position.

Craig, a frequent target of House Republicans’ campaign arm, has also consistently won her races. She’s one of the few Democrats in the House representing a largely rural, agricultural district.

Craig also hasn’t shied away from going against her party. She was the first battleground Democrat to call on former President Joe Biden to step down and she voted against his agenda at times.

As we note in our story, the Minnesota Democrat touted Trump signing some of her bills into law during his first term. Craig said Democrats should “keep an open mind” on finding bipartisan areas to work on, but is mindful that the stakes could be higher in the Trump 2.0 era.

“President Trump signed my bills into law the first time that he was in office, but what he is doing right now is raising costs for the American people,” Craig said.

What I’m watching: I’m going to see Drop, the new thriller in theaters this weekend. I will report back for a review.

– Mica Soellner

The Texas Senate primary gets nasty

Things got nasty pretty quickly this week after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton made it official he’s running for the Senate.

Paxton announced he’s mounting a primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) just weeks after we spoke to the controversial AG about his potential Senate ambitions.

Shortly after Paxton went on Fox News on Tuesday night to launch his campaign, Cornyn’s team sent us a spicy statement that attacked Paxton for infidelity.

The next day, I made it a priority to seek out Cornyn in the Senate hallways to get his reaction to Paxton’s run. The incumbent didn’t disappoint, telling me that Paxton was a “con man and a fraud” and soon Texas voters would be hearing more on that front.

Cornyn added that Paxton’s campaign amounted to a “vanity project” that could risk handing Democrats an opportunity to compete in the Texas seat.

Shortly after Cornyn dished on Paxton, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) walked by the Senate subway. As reporters mobbed him to hear his thoughts on the Cornyn-Paxton primary, Cruz responded that he wouldn’t be endorsing anyone in the race.

“Both John and Ken are friends of mine,” Cruz said. “I respect them both and I trust the voters of Texas to make that decision.”

Cruz’s neutrality was notable given that it’s common practice for incumbents to endorse their fellow delegation partners.

Two Texas House members — GOP Reps. Troy Nehls and Lance Gooden — have already endorsed Paxton over Cornyn, illustrating the attorney general’s appeal among the hard-right of the Republican Party.

But Cornyn’s backers carry far more national heft and will be willing to dedicate substantial resources to reelecting the incumbent. The NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund are behind Cornyn and could spend tens of millions of dollars in a contested primary.

In a point that Cornyn supporters have frequently made, this is money that could be better spent either flipping Democratic-held Senate seats or protecting vulnerable Republican senators. In a sprawling state like Texas with countless media markets, running ads is an expensive proposition.

President Donald Trump hasn’t endorsed any candidate yet, creating a massive question mark in the primary landscape. Without Trump’s input, a bitter and pricey fight looks certain to ensue in the Lone Star State.

What I’m reading: A revealing article on El Salvador’s crackdown on gang violence from The Atlantic’s Gisela Salim-Peyer.

– Max Cohen