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Biden heads to Baltimore as Congress faces a trio of big tests

Punch Power Matrix

CFPB-side: Everything (else) Chopra told us

K Street blames Trump’s NATO disdain for GOP inaction on Ukraine

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Biden heads to Baltimore as Congress faces a trio of big tests

Happy Friday morning.

News: President Joe Biden is heading to Baltimore today in the wake of the Francis Scott Key Bridge disaster. And Shalanda Young, director of the Office of Management and Budget, sent a new letter to key lawmakers urging Congress to authorize “a 100 percent Federal cost share for rebuilding the bridge.”

Notably, the Biden administration doesn’t spell out how much money Congress needs to approve in response to the crisis, although it could run into the billions of dollars.

The letter is addressed to House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) and ranking Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen (Wash.), plus Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.) and ranking Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.).

Biden will get a tour of the accident site and meet with the families of the six workers killed in the bridge collapse. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers hopes to partially reopen access to the port by the end of April, while an array of federal agencies has responded to the disaster with tens of millions of dollars in emergency aid.

Washington x The World: The House and Senate will return from recess next week facing an increasingly volatile geopolitical climate. There are three issues that lawmakers will have to contend with right away — Israel, Ukraine and the renewal of Section 702 of FISA, the federal statute that oversees how U.S. intelligence agencies conduct surveillance on foreign targets outside the country.

But there are some dynamics that could derail the congressional response on all three matters.

First, congressional support for Israel is no longer the slam-dunk it once was. And second, Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down a series of potential floor votes that afford him no political wins.

On Israel: The deaths of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza from an Israeli airstrike has become a turning point for the Biden administration’s posture toward Jerusalem.

When the White House first unveiled Biden’s foreign aid request back in October, the Israel piece was the sweetener destined to help overcome GOP opposition to new Ukraine funding. Now it’s unclear if aid to Ukraine and Israel will even move together in the House.

Fast-forward six months. Biden is openly clashing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Gaza war and the unending wave of Palestinian casualties. Senior White House officials and top Hill Democrats are floating placing conditions on U.S. aid, something that would’ve been unthinkable immediately after the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks. Even former President Donald Trump says Israel is “losing the PR war.”

Per a White House readout, Biden told Netanyahu Thursday that U.S. policy on the Gaza war will be determined by Israel’s “immediate action” to reduce civilian harm and expand humanitarian aid access. By Thursday night, Israel said it was opening new aid routes into Gaza. But Johnson and other Republicans hammered Biden over the Netanyahu call.

Biden’s political challenge on Israel is vital to his reelection bid. Biden is now in a position where there’s nothing he can say on the subject that will satisfy every element of the Democratic coalition.

Consider the fact that the Senate-passed foreign aid bill back in February had only one Democratic “no” vote. If the Senate were to vote on a House-passed Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan bill, would there be additional Democratic defections?

Couple that with the fact that Ukraine is still dividing the GOP. Is there a large enough universe of votes now for a Ukraine-Israel package, no matter what else is added to the measure? Given progressive anger with Israel, can Johnson get enough Democratic support to overcome the GOP anti-Ukraine bloc? We’re not so sure.

Johnson: The world is waiting for Johnson’s next move on Ukraine. David Cameron, the British foreign minister, urged dignitaries at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels to call Johnson and urge him to pass a Ukraine aid bill, an extraordinary statement from a key ally.

Johnson has said he plans to pass a Ukraine aid bill once Congress returns from the Easter recess. But it’s not clear that Johnson can remain speaker if he does that.

Johnson is hoping to load up any Ukraine funding package with provisions designed to help ease its passage — the REPO Act, lifting the ban on new LNG sales and converting any Ukraine aid into a loan, mostly at Trump’s behest.

But this doesn’t change Johnson’s fundamental problem. More than half of his conference will oppose any new aid for Kyiv, and some conservative hardliners may seek his ouster over it. Johnson has a call today with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) over his handling of the latest government spending bill. MTG has filed a motion to replace Johnson, although she hasn’t formally demanded a vote yet.

The prevailing thinking among Democrats is that Johnson will eventually fold and put the $95 billion Senate foreign aid bill up for a vote. But we find that improbable in the short term. Johnson will probably have to fail on his own bill before falling back on the Senate-passed package. And doing that could endanger his hold on the speaker’s chair.

Also: House Republicans have released their FISA reauthorization proposal today. It’s the Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.) bill from February that extends FISA for five years with some Section 702 reforms. The Judiciary Committee opposed this plan and it was eventually pulled from consideration.

Next Wednesday — April 10 — there will be an all-House member briefing on FISA that’s expected to be led by officials from ODNI, CIA, NSA, DOJ, FBI and the Pentagon.

— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

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WHO’S UP AND WHO’S DOWN

Punch Power Matrix

— John Bresnahan

CFPB-side: Everything (else) Chopra told us

We sat down with Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra recently and published a story based on that interview in the latest quarterly edition of The Vault.

But the newsletter business is a demanding one, as far as word count goes. Our conversation with Chopra covered a lot more ground than we had space for.

That said, you’re in luck! It’s recess! Congress slumbers! And that means we’ve got time to unpack the B-side of our Chopra Q&A.

Statutory shade: We’ve written a good deal about the CFPB’s legal battles over the years, and the banking industry’s effort to halt credit card late fee reform is going to be a hot topic in the weeks ahead.

But in our interview, Chopra didn’t just defend his agency’s efforts. The CFPB director suggested some of his regulatory peers had acted too timidly in recent years and stopped short of publishing specific rules out of fear of legal pushback from the industry.

“Other agencies are simply ignoring their statutory commands,” Chopra said, referring in part to never-implemented provisions from Dodd-Frank reform. He added:

Bigger isn’t better: Like many of the Biden administration’s progressives, Chopra is skeptical that we need to see more consolidation in the banking sector.

“Banks are not in the business of merging. They’re in the business of banking,” Chopra said. “So they really should be competing on their business acumen of lending, collecting deposits, providing services. The better they are at that, they will be rewarded in terms of their organic growth.”

A key theme from Chopra’s tenure at the CFPB has been assessing the particular policy problems posed by big banks, including higher credit card APRs — a charge the industry itself has disputed.

The CFPB director doubled down in our interview. “We have to look at where the abuses and the harms are,” Chopra said. “And most of those are coming from the biggest players.”

Politicization: The banking sector’s advocates have increasingly accused the CFPB of becoming “politicized.” Consumer Bankers Association CEO Lindsey Johnson told Congress last month that regulators at the CFPB and beyond “must stop writing regulations for short-term political wins.”

We asked Chopra to respond to that charge. The director replied: “That’s so insulting to everyone who pays excessive fees or has been cheated by a bank.”

Chopra said his agency’s efforts were just one small part of the work ordered by the White House Competition Council. He also disagreed that applying the term “junk fees” to legal bank practices was unfair. Junk fees have “creeped across the economy,” Chopra argued.

“If we rewind 30 years ago, an overdraft fee was very sporadic, inadvertent — very rare,” Chopra said. “Then, it becomes a multi-billion dollar haul for the top few banks.”

— Brendan Pedersen

K Street blames Trump’s NATO disdain for GOP inaction on Ukraine

A majority of K Street insiders believe former President Donald Trump’s views on NATO and Russia are having a large impact on Congress’ ability — or lack thereof — to pass additional funding for Ukraine, according to our latest survey, The Canvass.

Trump’s influence among congressional Republicans has undoubtedly made it more difficult for both chambers to approve new Ukraine aid, despite the fact that large bipartisan majorities are in favor of it. Congress hasn’t sent a Ukraine aid package to President Joe Biden’s desk since the end of 2022.

Our survey found that 61% of senior K Streeters attribute this to Trump’s outspoken views on the subject. Trump has cast doubt on the effectiveness of the NATO alliance and even recently seemed to invite a Russian incursion into NATO territory, saying the United States wouldn’t defend nations that don’t spend enough on defense.

The Ukraine issue has vexed House GOP leaders ever since their party reclaimed the majority. Speaker Mike Johnson is set to unveil a Ukraine proposal in the coming days, but it’s unclear if enough Democrats will go along with it. Johnson also has to consider the possibility that conservative hardliners could move to oust him from the speakership.

Despite these headwinds, our survey found that 68% of senior K Street leaders believe that Congress will eventually pass additional Ukraine aid.

For several months, GOP leaders in both chambers said any additional Ukraine aid must include border security language. Immigration, of course, has been a hallmark of Trump’s three presidential campaigns.

But after bipartisan negotiations yielded a border security bill, Republicans killed that compromise proposal. The Senate then passed an aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan that included no border provisions. Just under half of the Senate GOP Conference, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, supported that bill.

McConnell has been publicly prodding Johnson to take up the Senate bill, but the speaker has resisted those calls.

Johnson’s proposal is likely to include budget maneuvers and other creative provisions intended to mollify conservatives who oppose Ukraine aid anyway. And he’s considering taking aim at Biden’s energy policies as part of the package, something Democrats are likely to oppose.

The Canvass K Street was conducted March 4-22 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.

Also: Here is the one-pager summing up the results of this month’s Canvass survey. Here is the full poll and the slide deck.

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues facing Washington. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Andrew Desiderio

… AND THERE’S MORE

United Democracy Project, the group that is linked with AIPAC, has a new ad hitting former Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) for voting against Israel. Hostettler was in the House from 1995-2007 and is now running again in the deep red seat represented by retiring Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.). The spot says Hostettler is “one of the most anti-Israel politicians in America.” The ad is running in Terre Haute and Evansville.

Also: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) raised more than $600,000 in the first quarter of the year. The Iowa Republican currently has $1.65 million cash on hand.

— Jake Sherman and Mica Soellner

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