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IN THIS EDITION

What you need to know about reconciliation

SLF poll shows Cornyn getting creamed by Paxton

What we’re watching

Murphy to force votes on U.S. arms sales to Qatar, UAE

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What you need to know about reconciliation

Happy Monday morning.

This is another huge week for House Republicans and their quest to pass a reconciliation package filled with President Donald Trump’s domestic priorities.

Congress has eight legislative days scheduled until the Memorial Day recess, which is Speaker Mike Johnson’s deadline to push the reconciliation package through the House.

Hill Republicans want to get the package on Trump’s desk by July 4. We’ll note that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is looking for a debt-limit increase – which is in this package – by mid-July.

The House GOP leadership’s goal is to have three key committees mark up this week – Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce and Agriculture – and then have the House Budget Committee assemble the bill by week’s end. GOP leaders would then bring the package to the House Rules Committee on May 19 ahead of a floor vote later next week.

What you might’ve missed this weekend:

– On Friday night, Ways and Means released their initial mark of the tax bill. At some point today – most likely in the afternoon – we’ll get a more fleshed out version of the tax title.

– We’ve reported all the important developments on the text coming today. Ways and Means is expected to create a new tax regime, hiking levies on university endowments. And despite some pleas from Trump, House Republicans are unlikely to add another tax bracket for the ultra-rich.

– News here: Clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act are in for a massive overhaul as part of the GOP tax bill.

Some incentives — including electric vehicle tax credits the GOP has railed against — are likely to be repealed as of Dec. 31. Most other credits would be phased out on staggered timelines but could face new limits in the interim. This would include eliminating transferability and adding new sourcing restrictions that apply to countries like China.

– Also news: Ways and Means’ bill is expected to include a remittance tax that targets international money transfers. Several GOP tax writers have proposed new taxes along these lines as a way to fund border security and crackdowns on illegal immigration and illicit activities.

– Ways and Means is unlikely to ratchet up the stock buybacks tax, an issue that came up in committee deliberations.

Let’s talk about the rest of what’s going on this week.

1) The House Energy and Commerce Committee released the text of its bill last night.

This package is going to cause heartburn on the right, no doubt about it. With no broad FMAP changes and no per capita caps for Medicaid, conservatives will be unhappy. Moderates were still reviewing the proposal.

Democrats released a CBO analysis Sunday night night stating the health portion of the Energy and Commerce mark would cut spending by $715 billion over a decade and would result in 13.7 million more Americans being uninsured. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) blasted the proposal as “catastrophic.”

On the tech side of the ledger, the panel is proposing a decade-long moratorium on most state-level laws and regulations regulating artificial intelligence models. This would be a major win for tech companies that don’t want states regulating AI models, but it’s not clear it can pass the “Byrd Rule” in the Senate.

The Energy and Commerce text also directs the Commerce Department, alongside the Federal Communications Commission, to find 600 megahertz of spectrum to be auctioned off in the next nine years. However, the panel does protect some frequencies the Pentagon and its Hill allies have opposed making commercially available.

2) At 10 a.m. today, Johnson has what may be one of the most consequential meetings of the entire reconciliation process. Johnson will meet with Ways and Means members and blue-state Republicans who want to raise the deduction cap for state and local taxes.

On one side are a group of angry New York Republicans – Reps. Elise Stefanik, Mike Lawler, Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino. The quartet (Rep. Nicole Malliotakis has her own ideas) has already said they won’t accept a $30,000 SALT cap. This faction also includes other SALT Caucus members who panned a $30,000 limit, such as Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.).

The politics: All five lawmakers have tremendous incentive to hold out for the best deal possible. Stefanik, who is back in the GOP leadership, has a prickly relationship with Johnson. Stefanik voted against the 2017 Trump tax cuts because of the SALT cap.

Lawler has a marginal GOP district and is eyeing a run for governor. Garbarino said he may as well pack his bags without a good deal. LaLota is already getting hammered on Medicaid cuts. And Kim, who’s also in a vulnerable seat, has argued she campaigned on SALT and must deliver some relief.

The SALT cap also disappears in January if Congress doesn’t act, adding to their leverage.

Johnson and top House Republicans understand SALT is an incredibly complex negotiation. Some in the GOP leadership think this could hold up the entire bill. The key for Johnson is to try to peel one or two of these members off from the rest of the group.

3) The House Agriculture Committee’s markup is on Tuesday night. The panel is proposing shifting more of the costs of SNAP onto the states and jamming more of the typically bipartisan farm bill into reconciliation. Some moderates like Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) had initially balked at the SNAP plan but are now on board.

The big picture. House GOP lawmakers are staking everything on passing this reconciliation measure. They’re already facing a huge blowback on DOGE layoffs and Trump’s trade war. Now they’re going to approve more cuts to key social safety net programs while widening and extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Their vulnerable members are going to take a big risk with no guarantee the Senate can pass this.

– Jake Sherman, Laura Weiss, Samantha Handler and John Bresnahan

Tomorrow at 9 a.m. ET: Join us for The Summit: Investing in Small Businesses. We have a full line up of conversations starting with House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain exploring how small businesses strengthen local communities. Register now to attend in-person or on the livestream!

FIVE-ALARM FIRE

SLF poll shows Cornyn getting creamed by Paxton

News: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 points in a new poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP-leadership backed super PAC.

SLF is supporting Cornyn. Their poll has Cornyn trailing Paxton 56-40, according to two people briefed on the survey.

In a three-way contest with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is considering a run, Cornyn is down 10. Paxton pulled 44% to Cornyn’s 34%. Hunt got 19% in the three-way race.

The survey, which was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by The Tarrance Group, also tested a general election contest between each potential Republican candidate and former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is mulling another Senate run. Cornyn led Allred by 6 points in the poll. Hunt was up 4 points. Paxton was down by 1 point.

Those results underscore a real fear for Republicans — that Paxton, a MAGA loyalist who has faced a slew of legal troubles, is best positioned to win a primary but could struggle in a general election.

Yet more importantly, this poll is devastating for Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002. Privately, some GOP operatives increasingly believe there may be no path for him to secure the nomination. It’s not the first survey to suggest Cornyn is in trouble, but this one comes from Cornyn allies.

Cornyn’s campaign said the veteran GOP senator believes he will win next year’s Republican primary no matter what early polls show.

“Senator Cornyn has a 99% voting record with Trump as president and continues to be his close legislative ally,” Cornyn’s senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said.

“In ten months when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win,” Mackowiak added.

Here’ SLF Communications Director Chris Gustafson with some pro-Cornyn spin:

It’s also worth noting that President Donald Trump’s job approval in the poll was right-side up by 2 points, according to the people briefed on the results. That suggests the sample was more moderate. Trump won the state by 14 points last November.

– Ally Mutnick

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What we’re watching

Tuesday. The House Rules Committee will meet to prepare several bills for the floor.

Reconciliation markups begin. The Ways and Means Committee and Energy and Commerce Committee will meet at 2 p.m. to begin marking up the tax title. The House Agriculture Committee will meet at 7:30 p.m. to begin marking up its part of the reconciliation package.

The Senate Commerce Committee will meet to consider nominations, including David Fink to be administrator of the Federal Railroad Administration and Robert Gleason to be on the Amtrak board of directors.

Wednesday. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem will be in front of the House Homeland Security Committee to talk about her agency’s budget.

The House Appropriations Committee will have HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and acting ICE Administrator Todd Lyons.

The Senate Appropriations Committee will have a hearing with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. USCP Chief Thomas Manger and Senate Sergeant at Arms Jennifer Hemingway will be in front of Senate Appropriations.

Kennedy will also be in front of the Senate HELP Committee.

The Senate Commerce Committee will have a hearing on the FAA’s reauthorization one year later.

Thursday. Zeldin, VA Secretary Doug Collins, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez DeRemer, Acting CBP Commissioner Pete Flores and FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson will be in front of House Appropriations.

– Jake Sherman

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Murphy to force votes on U.S. arms sales to Qatar, UAE

News: A top Democratic senator is vowing to force votes on U.S. weapons sales to two Middle East nations amid reports that President Donald Trump is poised to accept a luxury jumbo jet as a gift from the Qatari government.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, says he’ll object to proposed arms sales to both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, citing both governments’ efforts to curry favor with Trump through his (and his family’s) business interests.

“Congress should have a full debate over selling weapons to countries that are participating in the corruption of our government,” Murphy told us.

Trump will visit Qatar this week as part of a three-country swing through the Middle East, and he’s likely to announce arms sales in each nation. Senators can force votes on joint resolutions of disapproval with the goal of blocking proposed weapons sales to foreign nations — though this would require veto-proof majorities in both chambers in order to have real force.

While the Qatari government says there’s no final decision yet on the gifting of the $400 million jet, Trump seemed to confirm it in a Truth Social post late Sunday, saying it’ll be outfitted by the U.S. government for use as Air Force One.

But Democrats and ethics experts say the unprecedented arrangement is likely unconstitutional. Separately, we’re told that Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) plans to introduce a resolution today condemning the gift transfer and will try to pass it on the floor later this week.

Here’s more from Murphy:

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer described the jet arrangement as “bribery” and “premium foreign influence.”

In addition to the gift from Qatar, it was recently revealed that the United Arab Emirates is pouring $2 billion into Trump’s cryptocurrency venture. The move helped stall stablecoin legislation in the Senate last week after Democrats raised conflict-of-interest concerns.

— Andrew Desiderio

… AND THERE’S MORE

First in Punchbowl News: The Business Roundtable is ramping up its multi-million dollar campaign as the House Ways and Means Committee marks up Republicans’ reconciliation bill this week.

The group, which represents CEOs of the largest U.S. companies, is shelling out $2 million on a new wave of ad buys that include:

— Radio ads urging Congress to “extend and strengthen the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” Listen here.

— Digital ads in every state and D.C. that tout benefits from the 2017 tax cuts and say the law “helped businesses boost wages for American workers.” BRT is putting up billboards like this and running ads in print.

— A TV spot airing nationally on Fox News, which BRT is extending.

Plus, CFOs of BRT companies are flying in Wednesday for meetings with congressional offices, the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council.

Sherpa thanks: The Senate Opportunity Fund — a not-for-profit 501(c)(4) organization closely aligned with Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso — is hosting an event tonight to thank dozens of “sherpas” who worked with senators and the incoming Trump administration to guide Cabinet-level nominees through the confirmation process.

Barrasso, Senate Republican Conference Chair Tom Cotton, GOP Sens. Bill Hagerty (Tenn.) and Bernie Moreno (Ohio), along with Cabinet and White House officials are also scheduled to attend, including Education Secretary Linda McMahon.

Illinois Senate news: Eighteen members of the Congressional Black Caucus, including Chair Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), are endorsing Rep. Robin Kelly’s (D-Ill.) Senate run.

Gallego moves on immigration: Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is releasing an immigration framework that calls for more U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents and a path to citizenship for Dreamers. It’s hard to see this going anywhere in the GOP-controlled Senate, but it’s a sign that Gallego wants to be seen as a player in any future immigration and border security compromise.

— Laura Weiss, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

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