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May 30, 2025
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THE TOP
Leader Look: Long, hot summer for one big, beautiful battle
Happy Friday morning.
Over the last five months, the House has lived up to expectations. It’s been loud, rambunctious, heated, deeply divided and hyper-partisan. For lovers of the People’s House, it’s at once exhausting and thrilling to watch.
The House Republican majority left on a high note last week when Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump orchestrated the passage of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Act over the opposition of just two GOP lawmakers. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries delivered a 37-minute speech bashing the bill very early on the morning of May 22.
For Johnson and Jeffries, the next phase of the 119th Congress gets even more interesting. And that’s where we pick up today in our House Leader Look.
Mike Johnson. Johnson had an unmistakable pep in his step last week when he left Washington. The speaker is preoccupied with the idea that the media, Democrats and even some Republican colleagues underestimate his legislative abilities. But as promised, Johnson pushed the reconciliation bill through the House by Memorial Day.
However, Johnson’s work on reconciliation is far from done. This next stage may be just as difficult. When the House returns Tuesday, the chamber has just 13 days in session until Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune promised to have a reconciliation package on Trump’s desk.
The Senate will have to move extremely quickly under this timeline. And Johnson will have to work overtime to defend the House’s equities in this package – not only from Senate Republicans, but also from Trump, who has expressed openness to changing the House product.
The speaker will seek to protect House-crafted provisions on everything from SALT to the rapid rollback of IRA clean-energy tax credits to steep Medicaid spending cuts. Some GOP senators will want more, some won’t be comfortable going this far.
But every change the Senate makes will impact Johnson’s vote count when the reconciliation bill comes back to the House. At some point during the next few weeks, Johnson will almost certainly be forced to plead with skittish House Republicans to pass a revised reconciliation package with the debt-limit deadline looming around the corner in mid-July.
Look at some of the incoming Johnson is already getting. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said the HFC “held our nose” to vote for the bill. “The House-passed ‘BBB’ bill must get better in the Senate & House return,” Roy said.
There are three other dynamics to keep an eye on:
– The White House is expected to send up a package of DOGE-generated cuts to the Hill for a vote. Johnson is under no statutory obligation to bring this rescission proposal to the floor. But he’ll be under heavy internal pressure to do so.
Congress must act within 45 days once it receives the presidential message on the long-awaited rescissions package or the funding will be spent as directed. There’s no Senate filibuster, and it doesn’t have to go through any committees in either chamber.
The proposal is expected to total at least $9 billion (funding that’s already being withheld, which is questionable legally, but OK). The cuts will mainly focus on the already shuttered USAID, but there will also be proposed cuts to NPR and PBS.
– FY2026 spending bills start getting marked up next week. Trump is pushing huge cuts in non-defense spending while adding to the Pentagon budget. This will be a big challenge for Johnson and GOP appropriators.
– Johnson will get new questions about whether he’s going to bring up the $1 billion D.C. budget fix for a vote. D.C. officials and Mayor Muriel Bowser have said it’s essential. House GOP appropriators doubt it. It’s another headache for the speaker.
Hakeem Jeffries: The House minority leader is openly — and repeatedly — saying Democrats will win the majority in November 2026.
For the ever-cautious Jeffries (we may trademark that phrase) to lean that far into this prediction is a barometer of the mood in the current House Democratic Caucus. Historically, Democrats should win. If money and motivation are the yardsticks, they will win.
Yet even more importantly, Jeffries has to say they’re going to win. The Democratic base — still outraged over Trump’s victory — is demanding that their leaders stop him somehow, despite complete GOP control of Washington.
Jeffries is doing the little he can on that front by promising that Democrats will do so – but in January 2027. It ain’t much, but it’s something. Now Jeffries must deliver on the promise.
Jeffries rallied Democrats against the GOP reconciliation package, including having an unprecedented 100 members testify before the Rules Committee in opposition. It didn’t change the final outcome, although Jeffries issued this warning before the May 22 vote: “This day may very well turn out to be the day that House Republicans lost control of the United States House of Representatives.”
Jeffries continues to step up his press outreach, adding a fly-in day press conference — like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — among numerous other media availabilities. The DCCC continues to outraise the NRCC, another plus for Jeffries.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
NEW: Join us on Wednesday, June 11, at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Punchbowl News Founder Jake Sherman will sit down with Cruz to discuss news of the day, 5G and spectrum policy. This event is the first in our two-part series, “America’s 5G Leadership,” presented by CTIA, and will include a fireside chat with its new CEO, Ajit Pai. RSVP here!
HOUSE ETHICS WATCH
More ethics problems for Democrat Cherfilus-McCormick
Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) is facing new ethics questions following the release of a report by the Office of Congressional Conduct calling for a full-scale probe into an earmark she obtained for a Florida nonprofit, among other allegations.
The House Ethics Committee released a statement on Thursday stating that it had received a referral from OCC one year ago regarding the earmark, which may have ended up going to a for-profit entity in violation of House rules, according to the independent watchdog. The Ethics Committee was required to release the OCC report after one year if the matter hadn’t been resolved.
OCC also looked into whether the third-term Florida Democrat “may have accepted campaign contributions linked to an official action”; “may have dispensed special favors or privileges to friends in connection with her congressional office’s requests for community project funding”; Cherfilus-McCormick’s campaign “may have misreported the source of campaign contribution or accepted a campaign contribution made by one person in the name of another”; and other issues.
The independent ethics watchdog voted unanimously to send the case onto the Ethics Committee.
In a statement, Cherfilus-McCormick noted “The Committee on Ethics has not yet concluded its review of the allegations, and no decision has been made at this time.”
Cherfilus-McCormick – like a lot of members these days – didn’t cooperate with OCC investigators.
The Florida Democrat has been the target of a special investigative subcommittee probe since December 2023 following a previous OCC referral over alleged campaign finance violations. These new allegations will also be reviewed by the special subcommittee.
The earmark in question in this latest case was for $5 million in FY 2023 directed to the Figgers Tablets for Telemedicine, which comes under the aegis of the Figgers Foundation, a Florida non-profit.
The funding was to “support the manufacture and distribution of 15,000 enhanced telehealth enabled tablet computers to low-income senior citizens, particularly senior veterans, and families of children with disabilities in Florida’s 20th United States Congressional District,” according to Cherfilus-McCormick’s letter to the House Appropriations Committee.
In the second half of 2023, three members of the Figgers family donated nearly $20,000 to Cherfilus-McCormick’s campaign, according to FEC records.
– John Bresnahan
The Vault: The cost of permanent tax cuts
First in Punchbowl News: Making a host of temporary tax cuts from House Republicans’ reconciliation bill permanent would grow the cost of the package by over $1.4 trillion through 2034.
That’s according to new analysis from the Joint Committee on Taxation, which shows how extending some policies for longer than their four or five-year timelines could raise the package’s price tag.
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The new data, requested by Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and obtained by Punchbowl News, shows the 10-year cost for a tax cut on overtime pay would climb by more than $200 billion if it’s extended past 2028. The extra price tag for 100% bonus depreciation, a big business priority, would top $300 billion.
The numbers: These costs would come on top of JCT’s estimate that the House-passed tax package would lose $3.9 trillion in federal revenue from 2025 through 2034. To try to offset some of that cost, the reconciliation bill also slashes more than $1.5 trillion in spending.
Congress passes temporary tax cuts all the time. It’s a way to cut down the official cost of tax bills and test out policies, letting a future Congress decide whether to spend on maintaining them. Often there’s political pressure to keep “tax extenders” around, but they don’t always stick.
A number of House Republicans’ tax cuts are temporary. President Donald Trump’s campaign priorities — like tax cuts for tips, overtime pay and seniors — are in place from 2025 through 2028. Aligning the tax relief with the length of Trump’s term sends a political message while lowering their cost.
Business tax breaks for R&D, interest expenses and machinery and equipment purchases are revived through 2029 in the bill. Key Senate Republicans want to make those policies permanent.
The politics: Both parties pass temporary tax cuts, as we noted. But still expect Democrats and budget hawks to put a spotlight on just how much it’ll cost if four or five-year policies are made permanent down the line.
Democrats have been railing against the GOP tax bill’s blow fiscally for the U.S. government. This is something global financial markets also fear – Congress and the White House can’t get the country’s finances in order.
Here’s Smith, who serves as top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee’s Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth subcommittee:
— Laura Weiss
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PRESENTED BY DISNEY
THE CAMPAIGN
Eyeing Senate run, Huzienga fundraising with Sean Duffy
Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) is hosting a fundraiser next week with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on June 4.
Here’s a copy of the invite we obtained. Duffy and Huizenga served together in the House until Duffy’s 2019 departure. Both were members of the House Financial Services Committee.
Huizenga is considering a bid for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.).
The cold war over the state’s Republican Senate primary has continued to heat up this week. NRSC political director Brendan Jaspers shared polling data on Wednesday showing former Rep. Mike Rogers pulling ahead of Huizenga in support, name recognition and favorability.
Many Senate Republicans have endorsed Rogers, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
But we don’t expect this struggle to end for a bit – not without an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Trump opted not to endorse Rogers at a Michigan rally in late April, despite doing so in 2024. Huizenga spoke with Trump just before the rally.
In the weeks since, Huizenga has drifted closer to a Senate run. We scooped the contract he signed with BrabenderCox, a firm with ties to Trump’s prior presidential campaign.
– Brendan Pedersen
SPECIAL PROJECTS
ICYMI: The Future of Medicine: A Leading Voice
The latest installment in our series, The Future of Medicine, this week features an exclusive interview with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.).
Cassidy, a medical doctor, chairs the Senate committee with jurisdiction over health care policy. In our interview, the Louisiana Republican reflected on his decades treating patients and how that informs his perspective on major policy questions.
From Medicaid to the 340B drug pricing program, there’s no shortage of issues for Cassidy and the rest of the committee to address.
Cassidy authored a recent report on reforming the 340B program. The report takes aim at pharmacy benefit managers using the program to boost their bottom line. Cassidy is also in favor of limiting provider taxes for Medicaid in order to force states to contribute more to the program while reducing the federal government’s burden.
Plus, Cassidy reflected on the medical advancements that have transformed patient care since he first started practicing in the 1980s.
Read the full segment and the rest of the series. Don’t forget to listen to the accompanying podcast, too.
— Andrew Desiderio
PRESENTED BY DISNEY
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