NEWS: The $1B for Trump's ballroom is in trouble

IN THIS EDITION

Trump’s ballroom security money is in trouble

Vault: House eyes narrow rework of Senate housing bill

Who’s next in the GOP redistricting spree?

Harkin backs Turek for Iowa Senate

Schumer pushes DHS on potential Mythos hacks

THE TOP

Trump’s ballroom security money is in trouble

Happy Friday morning.

The White House’s $1 billion request to secure President Donald Trump’s new ballroom is getting a very frosty reception on Capitol Hill, casting doubt on whether GOP leaders can keep it in the upcoming immigration reconciliation package.

Several House and Senate Republicans are privately raising alarms about the money and the political pitfalls of funding anything related to Trump’s controversial ballroom, even as the White House, administration officials and GOP leaders insist the $1 billion is only for security.

Some of these skeptical Republicans feel the ballroom project is just too politically toxic right now, especially when Trump said for so long that it would be paid for by private funds. Trump’s approval ratings are in the 30s. Gas is $4.55 per gallon. Trump can’t yet find a path to victory against Iran, while he and other administration officials are threatening another war in Cuba.

“A first-year poli sci major would know not to ask members to take this vote and we hope the speaker does too,” one House Republican told us.

Another House Republican put it this way: “There is no way in hell that this will get 218 votes on the floor.”

The House GOP moderates to keep an eye on include: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.), Don Bacon (Neb.), Jen Kiggans (Va.) and Rob Bresnahan (Pa.).

Trump’s ballroom project isn’t new, but the president and his congressional allies have made a fresh push for the facility since the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting. Trump has repeatedly said that construction would be fully funded by private donors and cost around $400 million.

Now the administration wants Republicans in Congress to approve $1 billion for security. The White House says this pot of money would also fund other Secret Service upgrades.

More gripes. It’s not only the politics of the ballroom security funding that has some moderate Republicans fed up. These Republicans feel there’s not nearly enough clarity on exactly where the funding would go, details the White House will need to address next week.

There’s concern as well about trying to expand the reconciliation bill beyond immigration enforcement funds. This isn’t what Republican leaders promised.

California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the GOP to become an Independent, said he’d vote against the reconciliation package unless Republicans pass ICE reforms, which is unlikely. Kiley also is queasy about the ballroom money:

Speaker Mike Johnson can only lose two votes on any given bill. Johnson needs near unanimity here — and he doesn’t have that yet.

Senate problems. Yet GOP leaders may ultimately be spared from the ballroom battle.

Some Senate sources believe the language won’t survive a “Byrd Bath,” the process by which the parliamentarian decides whether each provision complies with strict reconciliation rules.

It could also fall out during a markup or vote-a-rama if enough rank-and-file Republicans speak out. Democrats can force an amendment vote on the ballroom language and would only need support from a handful of GOP senators.

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) is one to watch. Collins is also the most vulnerable Senate Republican on the ballot this November.

“As the process moves forward, Congress will need to hear the case for why the proposed funding is necessary and how it would be used to upgrade White House security,” Collins said in a statement to the Portland Press Herald this week.

One Senate Republican noted the disparity between the $400 million estimate for the ballroom’s construction and the $1 billion request for security. The GOP senator added that Congress has received no information from the administration about the ballroom itself, other than the intention to fund it via private donors.

The administration’s case. The White House and Department of Homeland Security point to the need to bolster security in the wake of the WHCD attack.

The argument from Trump administration officials and the Senate GOP leadership is that the reconciliation bill text explicitly states ballroom funding can’t go toward “non-security elements” of the project.

They’re also pointing to this letter from DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and Secret Service Director Sean Curran declaring the $1 billion isn’t just for security. The letter says some of the requested funds will be used on increased protection for government officials and high-profile events, and improvements to training facilities.

The messaging war. Senate Democrats plan to center their vote-a-rama message against the Republican immigration package on what’s not in the bill: measures to address affordability. Democrats will argue the GOP is spending tens of billions of dollars on ICE and Trump’s ballroom while neglecting the rising cost of living.

When we asked Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer about his message in the upcoming vote-a-rama, he said it’ll be all about rising costs.

“We’re just not going to stop talking about the cost of living,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) added. “We’re not going to change from day to day or week to week. Everybody understands our strategy. Everything is too costly and it’s Donald Trump’s fault.”

Note: Trump will deliver remarks in the Rose Garden at noon today.

— Jake Sherman, Laura Weiss and Andrew Desiderio

Join us on May 20 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) and Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.). We’ll sit down with Buchanan and Tonko to discuss the news of the day, the importance of early and accurate dementia diagnosis and their work on the Alzheimer’s Screening and Prevention (ASAP) Act. RSVP now!

HOUSING REPAIRS

Vault: House eyes narrow rework of Senate housing bill

Let’s be clear: The House isn’t about to take up the Senate’s landmark housing development bill, which passed by a 89-10 margin in March. But they’re sure trying to pass something.

For the last month, House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) has been negotiating with Rep. Maxine Waters (Calif.), the committee’s top Democrat, to find a tolerable compromise for both parties. The goal is for the House to pass the bill on suspension by a large bipartisan margin.

But what they pass, and how they do it, remain open questions.

Real talk(s). Hill and Waters haven’t come to a bipartisan agreement yet, according to several sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

In the meantime, House Republican leadership has urged the committee to tinker with the Senate’s bill rather than overhaul it. GOP leadership shared some language in the legislation this week. This reflected input from Waters, but it didn’t have her sign-off. GOP leadership sources also said they don’t have a full draft of the bill.

The core focus of these talks remains the same. Lawmakers want to change Section 901 of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which limits the role of large investors in the single-family housing market.

In particular, House lawmakers have discussed changes to the Senate bill’s treatment of “Build to Rent” housing. The language, which requires “Build to Rent” firms to sell off those units seven years after constructing them, has encountered stiff resistance from both industry groups and the House itself.

Enter the CBDC. There are also talks on setting stronger limits on a central bank digital currency, as demanded by conservative hardliners in the House Freedom Caucus.

At this point, we expect the House to strengthen the CBDC prohibition from the Senate’s roughly five-year ban, possibly by extending the horizon. But it’s too early to say what form that language will take. The bill will certainly need support from Senate Democrats to pass.

For its part, Senate backers continue to believe that any changes to their housing bill will shatter the coalition that passed it in the first place. But the Senate bill, as it stands, can’t pass the House. The votes aren’t there.

Paging 1600 Penn. Multiple sources tell us the House’s effort to rework the Senate’s bill has been slowed down by uneven engagement from the administration.

The White House continues to send badly mixed signals about what it wants in housing legislation. On the one hand, there are reports that President Donald Trump doesn’t care for the Senate’s “Build to Rent” language.

On the other hand, some White House officials continue to tell us they support the Senate’s housing bill, and the easiest path forward is for the House to swallow it. The White House said on March 2 that it “strongly supports” the passage of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act.

– Brendan Pedersen and Jake Sherman

REDISTRICTING WARS

Who’s next in the GOP redistricting spree?

Tennessee Republicans breezed through a last minute redistricting on Thursday, eliminating one Democratic district. South Carolina and Louisiana Republicans are up next.

Overall, Republicans across the South could easily add three new red districts this month, plus one more if the Supreme Court greenlights Alabama’s plans to redraw.

Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) saw GOP lawmakers on Thursday shred his Memphis-based district into three. That map sailed through both chambers of the Republican-dominated legislature, despite some angry protests, and snagged Republican Gov. Bill Lee’s signature.

In South Carolina, it may not be so easy. Republican legislators there were circulating a map that erased the district of Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). A South Carolina House committee plans to consider the proposal today. But the South Carolina Senate could pose a roadblock.

State Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey has said he’s very skeptical of redistricting. The House passed a resolution to extend the legislative session to tackle new maps. But the state Senate adjourned for the week without considering that resolution, meaning they won’t consider it until next week at the earliest.

South Carolina isn’t Tennessee. It is more challenging to draw a new map with seven Republicans and no Democrats (the current map is 6R-1D) that doesn’t endanger GOP incumbents in a strong Democratic year. Which doesn’t mean that South Carolina Republicans won’t redistrict, but it does make it harder to get everyone on board. See this tweet from Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.) as prime evidence.

Louisiana lawmakers will take public comments on redistricting today before they move ahead with a new map.

But state Sen. Caleb Kleinpeter, the chair of a key legislative committee, indicated his committee would favor a map with one majority-Black seat based in Baton Rouge. That’s good news for Rep. Cleo Fields (D-La.) but could spell trouble for Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.).

Waiting on Virginia. Both parties are anxiously awaiting a ruling in Virginia on the legality of the state’s recent redistricting referendum. That’s unrelated to the fall of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, but no less consequential.

At stake are four new blue districts that Democrats desperately need to help them even up the redistricting scoreboard. A decision could come any day.

– Ally Mutnick

IOWA SENATE

Harkin backs Turek for Iowa Senate

Scoop: Iowa Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek snagged a major endorsement for his Senate bid from former Sen. Tom Harkin.

Harkin, who retired in 2015, was the last Democrat to represent Iowa in the Senate. Turek is locked in a competitive primary with state Sen. Zach Wahls in a race that has divided major factions of the Democratic Party.

“I have a pretty good idea of what it takes to win an election, and then to faithfully represent all Iowans, not just those who voted for you,” Harkin said in his endorsement. “That’s why I’m supporting Josh Turek.”

Harkin served in the Senate for 30 years and is the author of the Americans with Disabilities Act. Turek, who was born with spina bifida and uses a wheelchair, was 11 when the ADA was enacted.

Harkin is a widely sought after endorsement in the Hawkeye State. His decision to wade into the race is notable because Harkin also has a relationship with Wahls.

Wahls called Harkin “one of my closest political mentors,” and said the former senator officiated his wedding in 2021.

Iowa’s Senate primaries are June 2.

– Ally Mutnick

SECURITY MEASURES

Schumer pushes DHS on potential Mythos hacks

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wants the Department of Homeland Security to move quickly on helping local governments secure critical systems against cyber risks of frontier artificial intelligence models like Anthropic’s Mythos.

“DHS must immediately help states and localities find and fix vulnerabilities before Americans are hit with outages, disruptions, and attacks that could put lives and livelihoods at risk,” Schumer said in a statement accompanying his May 7 letter to DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin.

Last month, Anthropic said its next model is so good at identifying cyber vulnerabilities that it won’t immediately release the system beyond private sector research partners.

The announcement created dramatic ripples in the halls of power, helping to thaw relations between Anthropic and President Donald Trump. Now, the White House is making a once-unthinkable turn to discussing AI safety and oversight.

But Schumer said state, local, tribal and territorial governments are being left out despite risks to “hospitals, energy grids, water infrastructure, school systems, election systems, telecommunications, and other critical infrastructure.”

Hackers may also be just months away from acquiring Mythos-like capabilities, Schumer added. DHS helps local governments adapt to cyber challenges.

Schumer asked Mullin to tell Congress his “plan for coordinating our nation’s response to frontier AI-enabled hacking by July 1,” complete with answers that local governments can use in “preparing for these unparalleled changes before it is too late.”

— Ben Brody