June 20, 2025
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
The Byrd begins its bath
Happy Friday morning.
The Senate just started a long weekend, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the White House are ratcheting up the pressure on rank-and-file GOP senators to pass a massive Republican reconciliation bill by the end of next week.
Senate aides are working through the weekend to plow through all the procedural steps necessary to meet that deadline.
The Senate Finance Committee is beginning its “Byrd Bath” process to litigate tax and health provisions with the Senate parliamentarian. This is to ensure compliance with the Byrd Rule, which governs the reconciliation process.
Democratic staffers are meeting with the parliamentarian’s office today. GOP aides will also have their own meetings. After that, full Byrd Bath arguments with GOP and Democratic staffers will start Sunday, according to sources briefed on the plans.
Democrats intend to challenge about 60 provisions in the Finance Committee text. That includes targeting Republicans’ plan to use the current policy baseline, which Democrats have panned as a gimmick designed to mask the true cost of the GOP package.
Thune, President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson all want this GOP reconciliation package to the president’s desk by July 4. Setting a hard deadline in the House helped Johnson and Trump force reluctant House Republicans into line last month, and Thune is hoping the same can happen in the Senate. Deadlines (and recesses) focus minds on Capitol Hill like nothing else.
But there are still significant obstacles to overcome on Medicaid spending cuts, SALT and repealing clean energy credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. The Republican margin of control in the House especially is razor thin, even with Trump battering holdouts. So we remain somewhat skeptical of Trump and GOP congressional leaders making that deadline.
Trump Campaign Inc. The latest sign of how dominant Trump’s grip on the GOP is? Republicans are racing to get a piece of his campaign team for the 2026 midterms.
Trump’s 2024 campaign turned his staffers into MAGA superstars, especially the top brass. Those who didn’t join Trump’s administration are still consulting and have become highly sought after.
Landing a Trump alum — especially Trump’s co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita or pollster Tony Fabrizio — gives any Republican the imprimatur of the MAGA movement. It’s particularly helpful for those worried about a primary challenge and anyone whose loyalty to Trump has been called into question.
For example, we scooped that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) secured several of Trump associates, including Fabrizio. Tillis is ripe for a primary and recently irked MAGAworld when he opposed Trump’s nominee to be U.S. attorney for D.C.
And then there’s Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is locked in a brutal primary with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn added Fabrizio to his campaign and LaCivita is working for a pro-Cornyn super PAC.
In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers tapped LaCivita as he geared up for another Senate run in 2026.
These consultants are battle-tested and, most importantly, have Trump’s ear. That’s a huge benefit and in some cases it could even translate into a Trump endorsement — or neutrality in a given race.
But Trump’s former political aides are conscious of the optics. They often run potential new clients by the White House before formally committing to any candidate, according to people familiar with those conversations.
Dueling Trump ties. Dozens of Republicans have worked on one of Trump’s three presidential campaigns. It’s not hard for GOP candidates to find someone to add to their roster. Tillis, for instance, also hired Trump’s data consultant Tim Saler and Trump’s fundraising manager Jim McCray.
Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) snagged BrabenderCox, the firm that made Trump’s ads, as he weighs a Senate bid that would pit him against Rogers and LaCivita.
In Ohio’s governor race, Vivek Ramaswamy has help from Fabrizio, Chris Grant, a top strategist for the main pro-Trump super PAC, and Andy Surabian, a Don Trump Jr. consigliere. That team can only have helped Ramaswamy snag the coveted Trump endorsement. His top opponent, Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost, dropped out once Trump weighed in — despite having former Trump campaign official Justin Clark in his camp.
Of course, none of these hires are a guarantee of being in Trump’s good graces or electoral success. Cornyn has been trailing badly in recent polling, and it doesn’t seem as though Trump plans to wade into the Texas Senate GOP primary soon.
And Axios reported that LaCivita, Fabrizio and Grant all fled the campaign of Arizona governor hopeful Karrin Taylor Robson over strategic differences. Trump had backed Robson but later endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.).
This trend is really just the latest step in Trump’s transformation of the GOP campaign ecosystem. Successful Republican candidates cozy up to Trump, hold fundraisers on his properties, support his agenda plus everything he tweets or says, and now hire his former campaign team. This is all in the hope of getting the former president’s blessing or escaping his wrath.
– Ally Mutnick, Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman
PEACH STATE POLITICS
Georgia GOP waits for Trump’s Senate signal
After Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp passed on a Senate run last month, state Republicans are desperately waiting on President Donald Trump to send them a signal about his top choice.
In conversations with more than half a dozen Republicans in the Georgia delegation, nearly every member said they had no plans to endorse a candidate right now or until Trump taps who he wants to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
But between the Israel-Iran war, the reconciliation slog on Capitol Hill and a host of other domestic and global issues on Trump’s plate, the Georgia Senate race may not be top of mind for the president. And the delegation is getting antsy.
“We’ll see what the field looks like,” Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) told us. “I’m not going to endorse anybody yet.”
Currently, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and state insurance commissioner John King are the big names in the primary field. But neither has ignited much excitement among their colleagues.
Others who could enter the race said they want to see if Trump asks them to run before deciding.
“I’m trying to figure out if this is the right time,” Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) said. “All options are open.”
Sources close to Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), another possible contender, said he is still considering whether to enter the race. But Collins has been playing up his ties to Trump, including authoring the Laken Riley Act – the first bill Trump signed into law this term.
Carter, meanwhile, brushed off concerns that he’s not a top contender, citing his internal polls. Carter told us his team is frequently in touch with Trump’s camp, though Carter admitted it had been “a little while” since he last directly spoke to the president.
“We got to do what we got to do,” Carter, who’s labeling himself a “MAGA warrior,” said. “We’re focused on our part of it and that’s all we can do right now.”
The Kemp factor: Kemp bowed out of a Senate run, but GOP campaign operatives say his opinion will matter almost as much as Trump when it comes to greenlighting the hopeful nominee.
The popular Georgia governor was seen as the best contender to topple Ossoff, the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection next year.
Kemp has also asked top donors to hold off on backing anyone in the current field until a consensus candidate emerges, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Kemp and Trump met on May 10 to talk about the field.
Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) said Kemp and Trump will work hand in hand to find the best candidate. Scott also said he has no plans to endorse until then.
“If the two of them endorse the same person, the nomination will be pretty much over with,” Scott said.
Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee disputes the notion by Democrats that Ossoff has an edge now due to a weakened GOP primary field.
Nick Puglia, NRSC spokesperson, tied Ossoff to an extreme liberal agenda and said Republicans “are laser focused on defeating the most vulnerable Senator on the map.”
– Mica Soellner
The Vault: How Gillibrand won
A Senate supermajority advanced the GENIUS Act on Tuesday. But among the 18 Democrats who helped the chamber pass its first major crypto bill, none played a more central role than Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.).
Crypto had plenty of momentum heading into the 119th Congress, yet the path forward was beset by procedural headwinds and political landmines. Most of those landmines were deposited personally by President Donald Trump.
Democrats’ road here was charted by Gillibrand, and she did it without support from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and in the face of fierce opposition from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Here’s how.
{if (profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_I_103061 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_II_103417 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_III_103418 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_14_Day_Trial_103643 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_The_Vault_Tech_121727 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_The_Vault_Tech_121821 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_121726 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_121823 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Vault_Tech_126214 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Vault_Tech_126263 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_All_Access_Pass == true)}
Old friends: Two of Gillibrand’s Republican friendships were crucial to the passage of the GENIUS Act. She’s worked with Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) on digital asset legislation for years now, including multiple bills in the 118th Congress.
We didn’t actually know much about Gillibrand’s relationship with Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), chief author of the GENIUS Act. Though Hagerty has only served in the Senate since 2021, Gillibrand says they’ve bonded through Bible study.
“When I heard he wanted to be the lead on stablecoins, I immediately called him,” Gillibrand said.
Those two ties helped Gillibrand form a bridge for rapid-fire policy negotiations.
During crucial procedural votes, we watched Gillibrand stalking the floor with a binder in hand, working over crypto-curious Democrats and hearing out their concerns about the latest draft. Then, Gillibrand would bring potential changes to Hagerty and Lummis to discuss on the other side of the chamber.
“I could make the case to Sens. Lummis and Hagerty, and nine out of 10 times, they agreed,” Gillibrand said.
Democrats divided: Gillibrand knows this was a tough vote for some of her Democratic colleagues. The 18 pro-GENIUS Democrats represent a significant cleft in the party.
But Gillibrand says she “couldn’t wait another Congress until the Democrats were in charge again. I really felt like time is of the essence. We were losing market share.”
We asked Gillibrand, who also leads the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, what it meant to have Senate Democratic leaders like Schumer and Warren so solidly opposed to Gillibrand’s effort. Her role both leading the DSCC and this bill caused some friction during the process.
“I would just suggest that this is a relatively new industry. There’s not a great deal of depth and knowledge within the Senate’s staff,” Gillibrand said.
Gillibrand says she’s sympathetic to most Democrats’ top concern and would support a standalone ethics bill to clamp down on crypto entanglements surrounding the White House.
She’s unlikely to find GOP support for that idea.
– Brendan Pedersen
{else}
{/if}
PRESENTED BY PHARMACEUTICAL REFORM ALLIANCE
According to our new poll, 78% of American voters SUPPORT President Trump’s “Delivering Most-Favored Nation Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients” Executive Order.
WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Key senators heading to NATO summit
A bipartisan Senate trio is heading to The Hague next week for the annual NATO summit, where defense spending, the Iran-Israel conflict and the war in Ukraine are expected to dominate the agenda.
Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who co-chair the Senate NATO Observer Group, are leading the delegation alongside Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). President Donald Trump is also scheduled to attend.
The senators are scheduled to meet with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof and Romanian President Nicușor Dan, plus foreign and defense ministers from Balkan nations.
NATO members are expected to commit at this year’s summit to spending 5% of GDP on defense and defense-related priorities — a big jump from the current 2% benchmark. Spain has been a high-profile holdout on this issue.
On Capitol Hill, senators from both parties have been hammering the Trump administration for its FY2026 defense budget request, saying it’s inadequate and would result in a cut as a percentage of GDP.
It’s typically a much larger group accompanying Shaheen and Tillis. But given the uncertainty about timing for floor action on reconciliation, senators who would’ve otherwise joined are staying back in Washington. The summit is taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Shaheen and Tillis restarted the NATO Observer Group in 2018 and, earlier this month, introduced legislation to codify it as an official Senate entity with funding and staff. Shaheen and Tillis introduced a resolution this week commemorating the annual summit.
They’ve become close friends over the years, and there isn’t much daylight between them when it comes to support for Ukraine and NATO more broadly.
Tillis has gotten intense backlash from the MAGA wing of the party as a result. But Tillis hasn’t backed off or softened his posture, even as he’s running for reelection in 2026 and could face a primary challenge.
— Andrew Desiderio
… AND THERE’S MORE
The Campaign. AIPAC is running a new spot in D.C. with footage of President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the ad, Trump says that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and Netanyahu says he appreciates America’s support. Watch it here.
Unrig Our Economy is continuing its ongoing campaign against vulnerable House Republicans by running new ads against Arizona GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.). In a TV spot, a constituent who relies on Medicaid criticizes Ciscomani for supporting the GOP reconciliation bill. In a Spanish-language radio ad, another constituent accuses Ciscomani of threatening health care while supporting tax breaks for rich people.
Scoop. The Republican Governors Association is dropping an initial $500,000 into the Virginia gubernatorial race to boost Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. The RGA also released a new digital spot hitting former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) on immigration and the border wall.
The RGA is prepared to spend “several million dollars to keep Virginia red,” according to sources familiar with the group’s plans.
News: The New Democrat Coalition Action Fund endorsed Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw ahead of the June 28 special Democratic primary to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.). Walkinshaw was Connolly’s former chief of staff.
– Jake Sherman, Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick
Presented by Verizon
Verizon is committed to spending $5B on American small business suppliers over the next 5 years. Plus, we’re introducing new, flexible solutions and resources to help small business suppliers succeed. Check out Verizon’s new supplier program.
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by Verizon
A $5B spend on American small business suppliers over the next 5 years, with faster payment terms, modified insurance requirements and more, making it easier for small businesses to work with Verizon. More on the Small Business Supplier Accelerator.