How the Senate can make reconciliation deadline

IN THIS EDITION

How the Senate can meet its July 4 reconciliation deadline

Trump’s L.A. National Guard move spurs huge partisan brawl

House members spending tax dollars on the airwaves

Musk gets a poor performance review from K Street

THE TOP

How the Senate can meet its July 4 reconciliation deadline

Happy Monday morning.

Senate Republicans have three weeks to meet their leadership’s goal of passing a massive party-line reconciliation bill before the July 4 recess.

Privately, GOP senators, the White House and House Republican leaders are split on whether they can pull it off. Some have indicated they don’t see July 4 as a real deadline. Indeed, it’s an artificial one, though the debt limit hangs over the process. But as Senate Majority Leader John Thune knows, nothing gets senators motivated more than a deadline.

Let’s run through what needs to happen — and when — in order for Senate Republicans to pass a bill by the week of June 23. We’ll also discuss the obstacles they’ll face along the way.

This week: GOP senators would need to have the Finance Committee’s legislative text in hand by next Monday. That means the thorniest issues including SALT, Medicaid, clean-energy credits and key business tax breaks need to be hashed out this week.

Republican leaders want to avoid a game of whack-a-mole whereby solving one issue just creates more problems. This is especially true for SALT.

Senate Republicans want to water down the House GOP deal that includes a $40,000 cap on deducting state-and-local taxes. New York House Republicans are warning they’ll tank the bill if that happens. They’re pushing for a meeting with key senators this week.

Senate Republicans also risk picking a fight with House conservatives over the proposed rollback of clean-energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. At least four GOP senators have raised concerns about the rapid phase-out of the credits.

Schumer speaks: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told us he’s looking to pressure 16 GOP senators whose states would be disproportionately impacted, especially with job losses, if the IRA credits evaporate. This is one of the few areas where Democrats can try to influence the outcome.

“We get them so afraid — and this is happening already — that they go to Thune and say we have to modify Medicaid, we have to modify SNAP, we have to modify the clean-energy provisions,” Schumer said in an interview. “The more we show Americans what’s in this bill, the more they have to change it.”

As we’ve reported, the more changes Senate Republicans make, the harder it’ll be for House Republicans to pass it again.

Senate Republicans are working on a plan involving slower phase-outs for credits, along with varied treatment based on energy type. Schumer said he’s enlisting utility companies in his push, including a scheduled breakfast tomorrow with industry leaders.

“There’s such a vulnerability — the impacts are so deep and devastating — and that’s one of the reasons I’m pushing it,” Schumer said.

Senate Republicans face a similar problem on Medicaid. GOP leaders and the White House also have to work out any tweaks to Trump’s tax priorities in the bill and whether to make business benefits permanent. Both issues came up at a White House meeting last week.

Next week: While Senate Republicans have spent several weeks consulting with the parliamentarian about potential Byrd Rule issues, those questions will be formally litigated as legislative text is released.

Aides in both parties expect this process to take around a week for the Finance portion alone. They’re already duking it out over Byrd Rule compliance for the three bills that have been released. Other committees will release legislative text as soon as Tuesday, kicking off the Byrd process for another chunk.

In addition to exploiting GOP differences on specific issues, Democrats can try to strike what they see as some of the more harmful provisions of the bill by arguing they don’t meet the strict budgetary standards for reconciliation.

Democrats already have a GOP ally on at least one of the major Byrd disputes. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), is threatening to work with Democrats to strike a provision that ties broadband funding to whether a state tries to regulate AI.

Democrats will also argue that the parliamentarian should strike language limiting federal courts’ ability to hold officials in contempt. The House-passed bill included this provision. It’s unclear whether the Senate Judiciary Committee will keep it.

Week of June 23: That’s two weeks from today. Floor action will take a few days from start to finish, plus a vote-a-rama. The unlimited period of amendment votes will be Democrats’ last chance to exact political pain on Republicans. And GOP leaders will need to make sure none of the amendments are adopted on the floor.

The House will need at least a week to pass the Senate’s bill. House Republican leaders will have no choice but to let the bill lay over for 72 hours. The Republican whip job in that chamber could be epic.

Speaker Mike Johnson has used every phase of this process to build pressure on lawmakers to get to the next step. This is the last step. So Johnson effectively will have one argument to make — that the bill is worthy and it’s time to pass it.

Speaker news: Johnson kicked off his summer donor retreat Sunday at the Four Seasons in Georgetown. Today’s schedule includes a fireside chat with Susie Wiles; a panel with James Blair, Stephen Miller and Karoline Leavitt; a discussion about American strength on the world stage with Steve Witkoff; and Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) talking about reconciliation.

On Sunday, Johnson hosted a conversation about defending and growing the majority with GOP Reps. Tom Barrett (Mich.), Nick Begich (Alaska), Rob Bresnahan (Pa.) and Gabe Evans (Colo.) – all of whom flipped blue seats to red.

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman

NEW: Our final feature in The Future of Medicine series, in partnership with Incubate, highlights some of the key players in Congress, the federal government and the lobbying world shaping the health care industry.

ICYMI, read our earlier features on the state of play, the legislative landscape and a leading voice in this rapidly changing industry.

ON THE FLOOR

Trump’s L.A. National Guard move spurs huge partisan brawl

President Donald Trump’s decision to federalize 2,000 California National Guard troops and send them into Los Angeles to put down anti-ICE riots — while also threatening to deploy Marine units — has spurred a furious Democratic backlash.

Democrats are accusing Trump of a “dangerous escalation” of the situation, which they believe was already being handled by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and local law enforcement.

No president has deployed the National Guard without a governor’s consent since 1965. Democrats believe Trump is trying to distract from his own political problems, including the Elon Musk fight.

“Los Angeles Mayor Bass and California Governor Newsom have advised, as of this morning, that there is no unmet law enforcement need in the Los Angeles region,” said Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.), top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.

Both of California’s Democratic senators, Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff, slammed Trump for the National Guard order.

“What he is doing is classic Donald Trump,” Padilla said. “He is trying to deflect and distract.”

The Democratic Governors Association said “threatening to send the U.S. Marines into American neighborhoods undermines the mission of our service members, erodes public trust, and shows the Trump administration does not trust local law enforcement.”

Even as California National Guard units were moving into areas affected by violence, Newsom formally requested that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth withdraw the National Guard troops. California officials are also considering legal action against Trump.

But Republicans counter that Trump is doing what it takes to protect ICE officers and other federal law enforcement as the pace of immigration raids in cities nationwide has ramped up. Violent protests have broken out in response to the raids.

Trump went to Truth Social on Sunday night to slam Bass and Newsom:

“Governor Gavin Newscum and ‘Mayor’ Bass should apologize to the people of Los Angeles for the absolutely horrible job that they have done, and this now includes the ongoing L.A. riots. These are not protesters, they are troublemakers and insurrectionists. Remember, NO MASKS!”

“The president did exactly what he needed to do,” Speaker Mike Johnson said on ABC’s “This Week.” “Gavin Newsom has shown an inability or unwillingness to do what is necessary there, so the president stepped in.”

Trump and other top administration officials even threatened to arrest Bass and Newsom if they interfered with deportation arrests.

“If officials stand in the way of law and order, yeah, they will be arrested,” Trump told reporters Sunday night.

Trump, though, took credit for controlling the violence on Saturday night when the National Guard didn’t even get into Los Angeles until Sunday.

More from the House: House GOP leadership have scheduled votes this week on two resolutions condemning rising anti-semitic violence. One is widely supported, while one is being panned by Democrats as a blatantly partisan move.

The first, authored by Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), has wide backing. The resolution cites a June 1 attack on pro-Israel supporters in Boulder, Colo.; the shooting deaths of two Israeli Embassy staffers on May 21 by a suspect allegedly yelling “Free, free Palestine!”; and the April 13 incendiary attack on the Pennsylvania governor’s mansion while Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro and his family were holding a Passover seder.

The second resolution is authored by Colorado GOP Rep. Gabe Evans and focuses on the Boulder incident. Democrats are upset that Republican leaders are moving forward with that resolution instead of a bipartisan resolution by Democratic Rep. Joe Neguse (Colo.), whose district includes Boulder. Democrats complain previous resolutions always involve the member whose district was impacted.

Evans’ resolution plays up the immigration status of Mohammed Sabry Soliman, the suspect in the Boulder attack. Soliman, an Egyptian national, has been in the United States since 2022. Soliman’s U.S. work visa has expired.

– John Bresnahan

AD WATCH

House members spending tax dollars on the airwaves

At Punchbowl News, we like to take a look at the lawmakers who use taxpayer dollars to run ads. The practice, referred to as franked communications, allows members to tap into official House of Representatives funds to get in touch with their constituents.

The communication can’t be explicitly political and needs approval from House authorities.

Here are some franked ads so far this year that caught our eye:

Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.), a freshman who won a contentious primary in 2024, has run two separate franked ads.

In one ad, McGuire says he wants his office to be a resource for constituents, including passport services and applications to service academies.

The other ad, which recapped McGuire’s first 100 days in office, is far more political. A picture of McGuire posing with President Donald Trump flashes across the screen as the Virginia Republican touts that he voted for trillions of dollars in spending and tax cuts.

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is eyeing a potential Senate run, also took advantage of franked spending in an ad that started airing in February.

“As your congressman, I will continue to fight for our conservative family and Texas values,” Hunt says in the ad, mentioning he’s passed bills to help police and the oil and gas industry.

The official ads coincide with a separate statewide effort from an outside group that thanks Hunt for being a MAGA leader.

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), who’s running for governor, used taxpayer funds to run an ad touting his work creating the Problem Solvers Caucus.

Gottheimer says he did “what people called impossible, like passing the first gun safety bill in 30 years, making the biggest investment in our roads and bridges in a century and increasing the child tax credit.”

In another taxpayer-funded ad, Gottheimer says he’s working to make life more affordable and to restore the SALT deduction.

Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), a longtime incumbent, is running several franked ads that advertise his political career.

“I’ve put people over politics since day one. I’ve passed legislation to lower costs, hold corporations accountable, and create good-paying jobs for thousands of Georgians,” Johnson says in one ad. In another, Johnson says he has always fought for underdogs.

— Max Cohen

THE CANVASS

Musk gets a poor performance review from K Street

Most K Street leaders say they have concerns about mega-billionaire Elon Musk’s controversial tenure with the Department of Government Efficiency this year.

In his 130 days at DOGE, Musk reshaped Washington through major – and often haphazard – cuts to the federal workforce and agency budgets. A majority of K Street leaders, 72%, have concerns with how Musk led DOGE, according to the latest results from the Canvass, conducted in partnership with LSG.

Musk departed the White House at the end of May. Since his exit, President Donald Trump and Musk have had a dramatic falling out.

Musk kicked off an X rampage last week by criticizing the Trump administration and congressional Republicans for the reconciliation bill, calling it “The Big Ugly Bill.”

Republicans have defended their bill as necessary to slash federal spending. However, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill could add $2.4 trillion to the debt over the next decade.

Trump punched back by threatening to terminate Musk’s business contracts with the federal government. Musk then called for Trump’s impeachment in a post on X that has since been deleted.

Despite all of this, the Trump administration is still pursuing a $9.4 billion rescissions package that includes cuts pushed by DOGE.

This month’s Canvass was conducted from May 12-30.

Join the Canvass! Are you a senior leader on the Hill or downtown? Help shape the Washington conversation with anonymous insights on the major policy debates dominating Washington. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Kenzie Nguyen

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

This week in the Senate: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) plans to force votes to block two weapons sales, one to Qatar and another to the United Arab Emirates.

The effort is in response to President Donald Trump’s acceptance of a luxury jet from Qatar, as well as the UAE pouring billions of dollars into Trump’s crypto venture. Senate GOP leaders could maneuver to delay the votes, but they’re expected to happen this week.

Tuesday: The House Rules Committee will meet at 2 p.m. to set the floor process for the rescissions package.

The House Appropriations Committee has hearings with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and HUD Secretary Scott Turner. The Senate Appropriations Committee also has Hegseth and Caine.

The House Armed Services Committee will have a hearing on the U.S. military posture and national security challenges in the Middle East and Africa with Gen. Erik Kurilla, the commander of CENTCOM, and Gen. Michael Langley, the commander of U.S. Africa Command.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe will testify about the CIA’s budget in front of the House Intelligence Committee. Energy Secretary Chris Wright will testify about his agency’s budget in front of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

The Senate Appropriations Committee will have a hearing with NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya.

Wednesday: The House Ways and Means Committee will have a hearing with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The House Agriculture Committee will have a hearing with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

The Senate Commerce Committee will have a hearing on the confirmation of Bryan Bedford to lead the FAA.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will testify at Senate ENR. Senate Appropriations will have a hearing with Turner and Bessent.

— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

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