The Archive

EVENT REMINDERS

TODAY! We’re excited for our virtual Pop-Up Conversation with Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) at 9 a.m. ET. We’ll chat with him about how Washington is looking to regulate capital markets and financial reporting in an effort to maintain trust in a changing economy. RSVP Here.

Next week: Join us on Wednesday, July 20 at 7:45 a.m. ET at Nationals Park! We’ll be interviewing Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) during Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Advocacy Day. We’ll be talking to Rubio and Cardin about the challenges facing small business owners coming out of the pandemic. RSVP Here.

ATTN. 1600 PENN.

Senate Dems mum on W.H. help

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) doesn’t want to talk about White House officials coming to his state — and he’s not alone.

Three of the four most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection this year declined to tell us which administration allies — if any – they’d like to appear alongside in their home states.

With President Joe Biden’s poll numbers averaging in the mid-to-high 30s, it’s no surprise endangered Democrats aren’t clamoring for him to visit their states. But we found that the reluctance to associate with the White House runs even deeper. Senate Democrats mired in tough races are cagey about appearing with any Biden administration officials, even those spearheading broadly popular initiatives.

When we caught up with Warnock before the July 4 recess, he deflected on whether there were plans to appear with any Biden officials during the two-week stretch he’d be back in the Peach State. And no administration officials were in Georgia during the recess, at least not publicly with Warnock.

“I don’t plan the administration’s schedule, I’m sorry,” Warnock said. “I’m not focused on that.”

Although Warnock praised Biden for his efforts to try to lower gas prices, he declined to engage about whether he’d like the president to campaign for him in Georgia. Biden narrowly won Georgia in 2020, the first Democratic presidential candidate to do that since Bill Clinton in 1992.

“I’ve answered your question,” Warnock said. “I’m focused on who I’m campaigning for, not who I’m campaigning with.”

Warnock’s wariness was echoed by his fellow vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents.

“I haven’t thought about it yet,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said when asked what administration officials he wants to show up in his state. “I welcome folks to come to Arizona. We got a lot of issues that we’re facing right now, but you know, I’m focused on getting this CHIPS Act across the finish line. … The schedule in Arizona is not something I’m really focused on.”

“I’m actually really more focused on me and talking with my voters,” Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) replied. “I’m getting around the state and making sure that they know not only the work that I’ve done, but I’m listening to them and the challenges that they’re still facing so that we can bring their voices here.”

The evasive responses to a simple question might not be that surprising considering Biden’s waning popularity, even among Democratic voters. Yet these same Democratic senators have touted the benefits of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and claimed the passage of the Bipartisan Innovation Act would ease supply chains issues.

But none wanted to extend the invitation to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, two Biden officials intimately involved in both legislative efforts.

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) struck a more hospitable tone when asked about White House visits. Hassan quickly pointed to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack’s recent appearance in the Granite State.

Hassan’s political calculus is different from Warnock, Kelly and Cortez Masto. While Biden’s approval rating is far from rosy in New Hampshire, the president did win the New England state in 2020 by a wider margin than his narrow victories in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Biden is also more popular in New Hampshire than he is nationally.

Over in the House, Frontline Democrats were far more likely to embrace the presence of Biden officials. Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough was an under-the-radar official who came up frequently in our conversations with lawmakers, as well as Raimondo.

→	Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) called Raimondo “an all-star,” gushed about a visit from Sethuraman Panchanathan, the director of the National Science Foundation, and requested NASA Administrator’s Bill Nelson’s presence.

→	Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.) singled out McDonough for helping rural veterans receive care. Fernandez also said Raimondo has plans to come to her district to discuss the need for broadband expansion. And Labor Secretary Marty Walsh visited New Mexico over the recess, Fernandez volunteered.

→	Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) praised visits by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, who discussed nuclear waste disposal, and McDonough, who came to talk on local VA issues.

Localized House races give candidates a better opportunity to emphasize the benefits the Biden administration has delivered at the district level than more nationalized Senate races.

DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said ultimately it was up to his vulnerable members to conduct their campaigns. But Peters did share this advice on the benefits of an administration visit:

— Max Cohen

POST-DOBBS LANDSCAPE

How the abortion ruling impacts GOP midterm messaging

Democrats are hanging their midterm fortunes on the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, pouring millions of dollars into TV ads and outreach campaigns designed to turn outrage into action. Republicans, meanwhile, are barely acknowledging the monumental ruling while out on the campaign trail.

In interviews with half a dozen GOP strategists, staffers and pollsters on and off Capitol Hill, all said they aren’t dramatically altering their election-year messaging despite abortion now being banned or significantly limited in many states. These GOP insiders insist the election outcome will rest on the state of the U.S. economy and President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, not abortion.

“Independents and even some soft Democratic voters are more concerned about cost of living, and they’re more concerned about education and some public safety,” said Amanda Iovino, a GOP pollster. “With the way the economy looks this year… we’re going to see the same kind of shift of attention back to the issues that people are actually dealing with in their day to day lives.”

A comparison of ad spending by parties tells the story even more clearly.

Democrats have spent around $12.1 million in TV ads hoping to energize voters in battleground states and districts, according to an AdImpact analysis. House and Senate Republican candidates, in comparison, have only spent $79,129 on abortion-related ads since the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision.

For GOP women candidates who are asked about their stance on the Supreme Court’s decision, they’re being told to stick to an abortion-rights playbook many congressional Republicans have used in recent weeks – downplay and pivot. The candidates have homed in on what they believe voters oppose most: “late-term, taxpayer-funded abortions.”

“Our advice – and the polling – shows to pivot to going on offense about national Democrats, and in some specific states like New York, where they are supporting late-term, taxpayer-funded abortion,” said a senior House GOP leadership staffer describing the messaging advice given to Republican women running in swing districts.

Democrats maintain that the Supreme Court ruling will put GOP candidates, especially those running in the suburban areas, on defense as they struggle to justify the party’s support for limiting or banning abortion.

Suburban women in particular are always a key voting bloc. Their votes helped deliver Democrats the House in 2018 and the White House in 2020. The fight to win over this group of voters will undoubtedly intensify in the states where abortion is now banned or at risk of being limited following the Dobbs decision.

For example, abortion has become a key issue in Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D-Va.) race against Yesli Vega in the Charlottesville area. Democrats jumped on comments Vega made falsely suggesting women who were raped were less likely to get pregnant, hoping the remarks would turn off voters in the battleground district.

But largely, House Republicans say they aren’t worried about the political ramifications of the Supreme Court’s decision, even as a record number of GOP women are running this cycle and could be confronted with the issue in critical swing districts.

There are 33 women in the House GOP conference, the largest number in the party’s history, and party leaders are looking to grow that number. A record 255 female Republican candidates have already filed to run in the House this cycle, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.

And even though a majority of Americans identify as pro-abortion rights, Republicans don’t view reproductive rights as an issue that will motivate voters in November. They’re betting heavily on a looming recession, record high gas, food and housing prices and a president whose polling is deeply underwater to convince voters to come out.

Republican strategists pointed to polling that showed economic concerns including inflation and rising gas prices as far more powerful at energizing voters than abortion.

“Top of mind for voters really is inflation, cost of living, those kitchen-table issues. We’re not seeing at the moment a lot of traction or focus on Dobbs,” said one GOP strategist.

“There’s a little bit of a disconnect between, while people disapprove of the Supreme Court ruling, I don’t know who is going out and voting on it,” the strategist added.

– Christian Hall

AD WATCH

Vulnerable Senate Dems embrace bipartisanship. Republicans? Not so much.

Vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection want voters to know they’re reaching out to Republicans and sometimes even crossing their own party to deliver results. But endangered Senate Republicans aren’t returning the love.

Punchbowl News analyzed the television and digital messaging of the six incumbent senators facing the toughest races this fall — Democrats Maggie Hassan (N.H.), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), Raphael Warnock (Ga.) and Mark Kelly (Ariz.), and Republicans Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Marco Rubio (Fla.).

While the Democrats boast about bucking the party line and working across the aisle, Johnson and Rubio only mention the Democratic Party when they slam their political positions. Bipartisanship is a constant in Democrat ads. For Republicans, it’s a dirty word.

The split screen offers a revealing view into how the two parties are centering their campaigns during what’s expected to be a brutal midterm election year for Democrats. For Hassan, Cortez Masto, Warnock and Kelly, showing they are willing to work with Republicans while sometimes distancing themselves from their own party is an effective strategy. And in Johnson and Rubio’s minds, hitting Democrats for the state of the economy is a winning message.

Here’s a look at how their ad messaging differs:

Catherine Cortez Masto

→	One ad that highlights Cortez Masto’s advocacy for Nevada’s mining industry says “she stood up to her own party and blocked the tax, leading the fight to protect our jobs.”

→	A Nevada police officer says in another spot that Cortez Masto has “made supporting law enforcement a top priority, working with Republicans to increase our funding.”

→	And when Cortez Masto hails her work to boost factory jobs, she says “I work with Republicans and Democrats to invest in manufacturing in America, creating jobs and cracking down on prices.”

Mark Kelly

→	Here’s Kelly attempting to assert his independent streak in an ad on rising prices:

Maggie Hassan

→	Here’s Hassan employing her version of the Democratic distancing in an ad on gas prices:

Raphael Warnock

→	Here’s Warnock’s appeal for bipartisanship:

Republicans are taking a far different approach when discussing Democrats. Neither Johnson nor Rubio broached the topic of repudiating their own party in their ad messaging. It’s not an altogether surprising strategy considering President Joe Biden is wildly unpopular and voters are unhappy with Democrats’ handling of inflation and the economy.

Ron Johnson

→	Instead of appeals to bipartisanship, the hardline Johnson goes on the attack against Democrats. One example: “Democratic governance is a disaster for America.”

→	In another ad, here’s how Johnson talks about Democrats: “Even liberal fact checkers say Democrats have repeatedly lied about me.”

→	And here’s another taste of how Johnson’s campaign deals with the opposing party: “The same liberal Democrats and media elite who falsely attacked Sen. Johnson for exposing the truth are laughing it up in Washington while America is dangerously off track.”

Marco Rubio

→	In one fundraising appeal, Rubio broaches the prospect of potential Democratic election gains this way:

→	Rubio echoes this rhetoric about “radical” Democrat control of the Senate in another fundraising appeal:

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

News: Another gigantic haul for McCarthy

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy raised $19.2 million in the second quarter of this year, bringing his total for this cycle to $124 million.

McCarthy has transferred $49.7 million to the NRCC and $12.6 million to vulnerable candidates and incumbents.

This huge haul helps illustrate an important point. McCarthy is raising much more than any House Republican leader in history. For example, Paul Ryan raised $10 million in the second quarter of 2018. McCarthy raised twice that.

→	News: Winning For Women Action Fund — a leading pro-GOP women organization — and related groups raised more than $2.6 million in the second quarter, bringing the groups’ total for the cycle up to $11 million.

Winning for Women is dedicated to electing Republican women and is backing Senate candidates Katie Britt in Alabama and Tiffany Smiley in Washington, among others. The group was also a major supporter of unsuccessful Ohio Senate candidate Jane Timken.

The amount is less than the $4.6 million the group raised in the first quarter of 2022.

→	News: House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik’s E-PAC is endorsing four new Republican women candidates: Barbara Kirkmeyer in Colorado’s 8th District, Regan Deering in Illinois’ 13th District, Sue Kiley in New Jersey’s 6th District and Yesli Vega in Virginia’s 7th District.

Kirkmeyer is a Colorado state senator running against Democrat Yadira Caraveo in a newly created toss-up district. Deering is running against Democrat Nikki Budzinski in Rep. Rodney Davis’ (R-Ill.) old seat that shifted bluer in redistricting. Vega is challenging Frontline Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.).

Kiley is mounting a longer-shot bid to unseat House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Frank Pallone (D-N.J.).

— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get the daily intelligence briefing. … The Covid-19 team will brief.

11:15 a.m.: Biden will meet with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

2 p.m.: Senate Republicans will hold their post-lunch stakeout.

4:30 p.m.: The Bidens will host the Congressional Picnic at the White House.

7:10 p.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will swear in Rep.-elect Mike Flood (R-Neb.).

9:30 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Andrews, where he will fly to Tel Aviv, Israel. Karine Jean-Pierre and Jake Sullivan will brief on Air Force One.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→	“Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds,” by Mike Bender

“Biden Administration May Offer Second Coronavirus Boosters to All Adults,” by Sharon LaFraniere

→	“Hutchinson Testimony Jolts Justice Dept. to Discuss Trump’s Conduct More Openly,” by Katie Benner and Glenn Thrush

WSJ

→	“Global Tax Talks Hit Another Delay,” by Paul Hannon and Rich Rubin

→	“Hospitals Must Provide Abortions in Emergency Situations, Biden Administration Says,” by Melanie Evans

Politico

→	“‘Even if it hurts’: Biden’s Middle East trip could bring short-term pain for long-term gain,” by Alexander Ward and Jonathan Lemire