Thune's balancing act

IN THIS EDITION

Thune’s next big fight: Governing

The Vault: Nevada Dems’ political playbook

Trump’s Hoosier State hurdles

Democratic Marine veteran enters VA-02 primary

A bunch of campaign news

THE TOP

Thune’s next big fight: Governing

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Now, onto the news … Thune’s balancing act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has notched wins for President Donald Trump and his party. Now comes his biggest test yet: governing.

Thune must somehow balance a vengeful president, unhappy conservatives, worried GOP moderates and Democrats, all while seeking to protect the Senate’s institutional power and his own majority.

The South Dakota Republican is wrangling disparate factions of his conference on government spending, pushing for a bipartisan process while the White House continues to threaten unilateral moves that even GOP appropriators oppose.

At the same time, Trump and his closest Senate allies are prodding Thune to keep the Senate in session well into August to confirm more of the president’s nominees — something that isn’t likely to happen. While Thune is expected to tee up an extensive package of nominations at the end of the week to blow past Democratic objections, few expect the Senate to remain in session beyond early next week.

That’s because Thune and many GOP senators are eager to fan out across the country to tout the One Big Beautiful Bill and counter Democratic attacks. Yet so far, Democrats haven’t allowed a single Trump nominee to be confirmed via voice vote or unanimous consent. The president and his allies want the Senate Republicans to stay in town and grind out confirmation votes if necessary.

Let’s focus on appropriations. Thune has a unique challenge with government funding and the Sept. 30 deadline. Thune wants to pass as many bipartisan FY2026 appropriations bills as soon as possible so he can call Democrats’ bluff if they force a shutdown showdown.

But Thune’s own conservatives are holding up a consent agreement to package three funding bills together (more below). And OMB Director Russ Vought is insisting that the very things Democrats say will cause them to walk away from bipartisan funding talks — another rescissions package, impoundment and so-called “pocket rescissions” — are still on the table. That comes after Vought said the appropriations process should be “less bipartisan.”

When asked about Vought’s most recent comments, Thune indicated the Senate is charting its own course.

“What I’ve said is … let us get back to regular order on appropriations and actually start doing that again,” Thune told us. “That, to me, is the course we’re on right now. We ought to play that out.”

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a senior appropriator who serves on Thune’s leadership team, downplayed Vought’s threats.

“We’re working hard. We’re gonna see what happens this week with these appropriations bills. And we’ve pushed them through committee in a bipartisan way, so I think we’re soldiering through,” said Capito, who got Vought to distribute billions of dollars in education funding that was being held back.

Meanwhile, Thune’s top appropriator has complained that what Vought is suggesting is illegal. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) on Monday reiterated her view on “pocket rescissions” — the legally dubious process whereby if the administration sends rescissions with less than 45 days left in the fiscal year, the cuts go into effect regardless of whether Congress acts.

“Based on the analysis and legal review that I’ve done… pocket rescissions are not legal,” Collins said.

Other GOP appropriators, like Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), said it would be “better long-term” for Democrats to feel like they have a seat at the table.

Democrats have threatened to walk away from the bipartisan funding process because of the very actions Vought and Senate Republicans have taken, including the recent $9 billion rescissions package. Democrats say they’re watching Republicans’ actions closely as they support funding bills on the floor – for now.

“Pocket rescissions are illegal. Period. End of story. [Vought] knows good and well that he is not legally capable of doing that, so it would depend on what Republicans do, if they go along with that,” said Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democratic appropriator.

Minibus latest. GOP leaders are still working through a few holds from their own senators on combining the Military Construction-Veterans’ Affairs funding bill with the Agriculture and Commerce-Justice-Science bills.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he wants a provision in the Ag funding bill taken out because it would “cripple, if not destroy” the hemp industry. The language would restrict THC levels in CBD, which would harm hemp farmers in Kentucky, Paul said.

Notably, Paul wants the language to be removed from the bill before it moves forward and won’t settle for an amendment vote. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said there’s an agreement on this issue, but the procedure is being worked out.

— Andrew Desiderio, Samantha Handler and Max Cohen

The Vault: Nevada Dems’ political playbook

LAS VEGAS — Republicans are working to make inroads here in Nevada after President Donald Trump won the Silver State. They see their big new tax bill as the ticket in.

Nevada Democrats’ response is to go on offense, putting their own spin on Trump’s push for no tax on tips and trying to win on one of the 2024 election’s defining issues, the economy.

“It’s a betrayal,” Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) said of the One Big Beautiful Bill. “And I really feel bad because my workers believed in what Donald Trump proposed.”

Target on Nevada. Three of Nevada’s four House seats are held by Democrats: Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Horsford. They’re all DCCC frontliners and on the NRCC’s target list. Lee already has a GOP challenger, video game composer Marty O’Donnell.

It’s not just Trump winning Nevada that has House Republicans eyeing the state. They see a chance to knock Democrats for voting against some of the most popular pieces of the reconciliation bill.

The Ways and Means Committee launched its messaging campaign for the One Big Beautiful Bill here in Las Vegas on Friday, where Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) slammed Democrats for voting against tax cuts for tips, overtime and seniors.

Rather than avoiding the issue, Democrats say they want to confront it head-on.

“I want to talk about [no tax on tips] too,” Horsford said in an interview. “I want to talk about why it doesn’t go far enough.”

Titus echoed that message. “We’re not shying away from it,” she said. “We support no tax on tips. Let’s do it the right way.”

Still, Titus acknowledged in our interview that this can be a tough message to land with voters.

Big picture. Democrats are confident they can win the broader economic argument, particularly amid a slump in Las Vegas tourism. They want to talk about cuts to Medicaid and food assistance in the OBBB, housing costs and tariffs.

“At the same time that they’re saying that they’re giving relief in one hand, they’re taking it away in the other,” Horsford said.

For their part, Republicans are betting Americans will feel an economic boost from their tax cuts early next year that will help deliver voters.

There’s still a long runway before the midterms for the messaging war over the GOP’s new law to play out.

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who eked out a win despite Trump’s victory in November, offered a similar message to her House counterparts. She vowed to work on implementing no tax on tips while still arguing it’s not enough.

“This bill has done nothing — nothing — to help anyone in Nevada,” Rosen said.

— Laura Weiss

REDISTRICTING WARS

Trump’s Hoosier State hurdles

President Donald Trump’s redistricting bonanza may have met its match in Indiana.

The Trump administration’s political allies in D.C. believe Republicans could squeeze at least one more GOP seat out of the state. They’re quietly exploring their options, according to multiple sources.

But it’s unclear if anyone in the Hoosier State is on board.

The state’s delegation currently has two Democrats, Rep. André Carson in Indianapolis and Rep. Frank Mrvan in the northwest corner of Indiana, also known as “The Region.” There are seven Republicans.

Mrvan’s district is trending toward the GOP and could easily be redrawn to be even more favorable. Carson’s seat, which includes Indianapolis, would be much more difficult to target.

“We’re one of many states that are looking at that,” Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) told us.

But Young also urged caution: “You can spread out your Republican vote a little too thin so that every few cycles, seats are going back and forth. And that can sort of cut both ways.”

Why Indiana could be different. Indiana is the latest front in the ongoing redistricting wars. But it will be a heavier lift than in other states because many in the Indiana legislature aren’t fire-breathing partisans eager to blow up their map. Their style is often described as more akin to former Vice President Mike Pence than Trump.

The key players here are GOP Gov. Mike Braun; Indiana House Speaker Todd Huston and state Senate President Pro Tem Rod Bray. The legislature is immensely powerful in Indiana, in part because it can overrule a gubernatorial veto with a simple majority.

Braun would have to call a special session to redistrict.

The big question here is how forcefully Trump and his allies lean on Indiana Republicans to push through another seat. The White House has been aggressive in pressing Texas and Missouri lawmakers to redraw maps, and their pressure campaigns seem to be paying off.

It will ultimately be a battle of wills between Trump’s ardent desire to insulate the fragile House GOP majority and the Midwest niceties of Indiana politics.

The Indiana legislature could easily carve up Mrvan’s district, overwhelming its blue cities like Gary and Hammond with redder counties to the south. Lawmakers chose not to do this in 2021.

Carson’s seat in Indianapolis would be much more challenging. Trump lost this district by 42 points in 2024. Republicans would need to crack it like a pinwheel, creating an ugly map that may be too much for the Indiana legislature to stomach.

But if there’s one truism that comes from the Trump era: Nothing changes Republican minds faster than a call from the president.

— Ally Mutnick, Laura Weiss, Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

THE HOUSE MAP

Democratic Marine veteran enters VA-02 primary

News: Mike Williamson, a retired Marine Corps lieutenant colonel, is launching a run in Virginia’s 2nd District to unseat GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans. Williamson spent 20 years in the Marines, serving six tours overseas and helping evacuate U.S. embassies.

In his launch video, Williamson calls out Kiggans for voting to cut veterans’ health care and says the incumbent is “beholden” to President Donald Trump.

“I’ll be damned if I stand by and let D.C. swamp creatures vote to deny health care and tear families apart,” Williamson says.

James Osyf, a Navy veteran, is also seeking the Democratic nomination in the 2nd District. Democrats see Kiggans as one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country. Kiggans beat a Democratic challenger last cycle by four points.

— Max Cohen

…AND THERE’S MORE

A bunch of campaign news

The Money Game: Democrat Jonathan Nez raised an impressive $500,000 in the first week of his campaign to unseat GOP Rep. Eli Crane in Arizona’s 2nd District. Nez, the former president of Navajo Nation, lost to Crane by nine points in 2024 but outperformed national Democrats in the district.

Nez has already received endorsements from Arizona’s congressional delegation, including both Democratic senators. Nez joins fellow House Democratic challengers Janelle Stelson and Christina Bohannan in raising over $500,000 in the opening weeks of their campaigns.

Michigan scoop: Donavan McKinney, a state representative challenging Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) in the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 13th District, is rolling out a lengthy list of new endorsements. McKinney is getting backed by former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.), Wayne Mayor John Rhaesa and the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers union. Check out the full list here.

In other Arizona news: EMILYs List is endorsing JoAnna Mendoza in the race for Arizona’s 6th District.

— Max Cohen

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