The hot House Arizona battlefield

IN THIS EDITION

The huge W.H. meeting. Plus, the House climate in Ariz.

What to expect in a very new California map

Scholten ends Iowa Senate bid, backs Turek

THE TOP

The huge W.H. meeting. Plus, the House climate in Ariz.

Happy Monday morning.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet today at the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky will be accompanied by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, an extraordinary gathering as Trump seeks a breakthrough to end the bloody war in Ukraine.

Trump met Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and has shifted his stance on the war from seeking a ceasefire to pushing for a broader peace deal.

Zelensky issued a long statement outlining his position for the talks. Zelensky and the European leaders will work to counter Putin’s demands during their session with Trump.

Andrew in Arizona. PHOENIX — Democrats are taking their case against Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” to all 50 states.

While redistricting is the major wild card, Democrats’ chances of taking the House will depend on their ability to effectively wield that anti-OBBB messaging in places like Arizona, where Trump won by more than five points last year. That’s especially true in the toss-up 6th District. Democrats are targeting GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani once again.

First elected in 2022, Ciscomani is seen as a moderate who emphasizes bipartisanship and leans on his own personal immigration story. Ciscomani narrowly won his first race two cycles ago, although he expanded that margin comfortably last November in a good year for Republicans.

But Ciscomani’s vote for the GOP reconciliation bill was a gamble, especially given his often-stated red lines on Medicaid cuts.

Democrats’ case. It’s only August of an off-year midterm campaign, yet Democrats know they need to sustain the lopsided public disapproval for the OBBB in the ultimate battleground state as their 2026 messaging takes shape.

“Juan Ciscomani was very vocal. ‘I’m gonna protect it, I’m gonna fight, gonna do everything I can.’ And then he turns around and votes for the big billionaire bill,” JoAnna Mendoza, a Democrat and ex-Marine running against Ciscomani, said of Medicaid during an interview. “He obviously thinks his constituents are dumb and that we’re not gonna see through this.”

Yet using OBBB in states and districts like this one could be a bit more difficult, as we noted on Friday. Trump and Republicans are touting the bill as having prevented a massive tax increase while also creating new tax breaks for working-class Americans.

“We will all pay for this bill, except the billionaires,” countered Marlene Galán-Woods, a Democrat running against GOP Rep. David Schweikert in the Phoenix area. “Everyone will pay higher premiums. We will all have higher energy costs.”

Leading up to the final vote, Ciscomani signed onto several letters warning against significant Medicaid cuts, noting the impacts that would have specifically on rural and Hispanic communities.

In late June, shortly before the final vote, Ciscomani and 15 other House GOP moderates wrote a letter criticizing the Senate’s Medicaid framework, which was stricter than the House version. The Republican lawmakers said it “threatens access to coverage or jeopardizes the stability of our hospitals and providers.”

The Senate’s version won out in the end. All but two House Republicans supported the final product, including Ciscomani. Ciscomani later said he was “proud” to support the bill and noted that the Senate doubled the rural hospital fund and delayed implementation of the provider tax crackdown.

Democrats’ messaging in Arizona extends beyond OBBB, too.

Inflation was a massive political vulnerability for Democrats under former President Joe Biden and a successful GOP talking point in 2024, particularly in Arizona. Democrats are now trying to use the issue against Republicans, pointing to Trump’s tariff regime and recent Labor Department reports showing inflation is back on the rise.

In Arizona, Democrats are trying to localize those impacts. Electricity costs are rising twice as fast as the overall cost of living, which is especially burdensome in a part of the country where triple-digit temperatures are the norm all summer.

“We’re already seeing [it with] the price of gas, groceries and utilities — especially here in Arizona, where it is freaking hot as hell,” Mendoza said, noting that her electricity bill was over $400 last month.

The GOP view. Republicans structured the bill such that the tax benefits — like no taxes on tips or overtime — will be felt immediately while the Medicaid changes won’t be implemented until after the 2026 elections.

This complicates Democrats’ framing a bit, though they’ve noted that state providers will need to trim budgets now in order to prepare.

Still, it helps explain why Republicans are focusing on the more popular elements of the bill.

“Rep. Juan Ciscomani delivered exactly what Arizona voters demanded by lowering taxes and securing the border,” NRCC spokesperson Ben Petersen said.

Ciscomani’s Tuscon-area district extends north toward Maricopa County and back down toward the southeast corner of the state, including sections of the U.S.-Mexico border. Illegal border crossings have plummeted since Trump took office, which Republicans believe voters will reward them for. The reconciliation bill includes new border funding, too.

Mendoza acknowledged the drop in illegal border crossings but said nationwide ICE raids are “putting the fear of God in people.”

Ciscomani wasn’t made available for an interview. Daniel Scarpinato, a top campaign official, emphasized Ciscomani’s bipartisan credentials. This could help insulate Ciscomani from Democrats’ attacks for backing the bill.

“Whether it’s funding for border security, tax cuts for working people or accelerating the widening of I-10, Juan is laser-focused on the needs of southern Arizona,” Scarpinato told us.

Ciscomani out-performed Trump in the district in 2024, winning by two and a half points as Trump only carried it by less than a point. Ciscomani’s Democratic opponent in 2022 and 2024 was Kirsten Engel, a well-known former state legislator.

Mendoza, meanwhile, is largely untested. While she’s the favorite so far in a crowded Democratic field and just won Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D-Ariz.) endorsement, the primary isn’t until next August. Galán-Woods also has a contested primary.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE GOLDEN STATE

What to expect in a very new California map

California Democrats’ proposed counter to GOP gerrymandering in Texas is here.

Now, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the legislature have less than three months to get their proposal on the ballot and convince California voters to approve it. That won’t be easy.

The plan, released Friday evening, looks to reduce Republicans to just four of the state’s 52 districts. As we reported, Democrats are hoping to net five new districts, but they aren’t all going to be easy flips. Three of those seats, held by GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley and Ken Calvert, were seats former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 10 points or more.

The other two potential pickups could be highly competitive. Harris won Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s district by three points and President Donald Trump narrowly carried GOP Rep. David Valadao’s district.

The plan shored up several Democratic incumbents but left Reps. Adam Gray and Derek Tran in purple seats.

Some Republicans privately acknowledged the map wasn’t as bad as they expected because it left them several battlegrounds to compete in.

But remember, California voters have to OK this Democratic plan. This map is certainly gerrymandered, yet proponents say it divides fewer cities and is more compact than the current one. A more brazen gerrymander than this, which could look messier and disturb more communities of interest, could have a harder time getting voter approval.

The timeline. The map’s rollout was rocky, partly because the proposal leaked shortly before Democratic legislators formally released it. Now, the California legislature has until Aug. 22 to approve sending the new map to voters in a November election.

We’ll have more analysis on the district data later this week. For now, let’s look at some potential Democrats who could run in the new seats.

The recruits. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera said in a statement he plans to continue representing Sacramento, which could mean running in California’s proposed new 3rd District, currently held by Kiley, or in the new 6th District, which Bera currently holds.

The new 3rd District has some of Bera’s current territory and some turf that he represented before the last redistricting.

Kermit Jones, a veteran and physician who ran against Kiley in 2022, could run there again or in Bera’s neighboring 6th District if Bera runs in the 3rd. Others who could run for a Sacramento-area seat include: state Sen. Angelique Ashby, Sacramento County Sheriff Jim Cooper and Sacramento Mayor Kevin McCarty.

Several former Democratic nominees from past cycles are eyeing comeback bids.

Audrey Denney, the 2018 and 2020 challenger to LaMalfa, said her home of Chico is in the new 1st District and she plans to run if the maps are approved. Another name to watch: California Senate President Pro Tempore Mike McGuire.

Ammar Campa-Najjar, who ran against Issa in 2020, said he is considering a rematch there. Campa-Najjar also ran against former Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) in 2018. Will Rollins, who ran twice against Calvert, could run against Issa, whose new district would take Palm Springs from Calvert.

And the new map creates a majority Latino district in the Los Angeles area. Hilda Solis, a former member and Labor secretary under the Obama administration, is interested in running there, according to multiple sources tracking recruitment.

– Ally Mutnick

SENATE CAMPAIGNS

Scholten ends Iowa Senate bid, backs Turek

News: Iowa state Rep. J.D. Scholten will drop out of the Hawkeye State’s Senate race and endorse fellow state Rep. Josh Turek.

Turek entered the increasingly crowded Democratic race to challenge Republican Sen. Joni Ernst last week. Like Scholten, Turek represents western Iowa. A Paralympian in wheelchair basketball, Turek is considered a favorite among Senate Democratic leaders.

Scholten, a baseball player who twice ran for the House, will appear with Turek at an event Monday in Council Bluffs, Iowa.

“I thought a prairie populist athlete from Western Iowa would be the best candidate to win in the general election,” Scholten said in a statement. “I still do, but instead of me, I have complete confidence that Josh Turek can take this on.”

This is big news for Democrats who are eager to try to oust Ernst — if she runs for reelection. Yet there is a large field of Democrats vying for the nomination, including state Sen. Zach Wahls and veteran Nathan Sage.

Scholten nearly ousted then-Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) in 2018, gaining a national profile in the process. Scholten serves in the state legislature with Turek.

– Ally Mutnick

… AND THERE’S MORE

The campaign. ICE is running a nationwide ad campaign, urging police officers to apply to join the federal agency.

ICE is recruiting more agents as part of President Donald Trump’s quest to crack down on crime by undocumented immigrants in cities.

Here’s the script:

The ad also says that the federal government will offer student loan forgiveness.

This ad is interesting because it criticizes local police department leadership for preventing law enforcement officers from going after undocumented immigrants who commit violent crimes.

Here’s the spot, which we see running in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and New Orleans.

Downtown download. Coinbase, the gigantic cryptocurrency exchange, has hired Avoq and Democratic lobbyist Steve Elmendorf to lobby on “[i]ssues related to digital assets and digital currency.”

The Iranian American Community of Florida has hired Foundry Public Affairs to lobby lawmakers on a bill that expresses “support for the Iranian people’s desires for a democratic, secular, and nonnuclear Republic of Iran,” and condemns “the Iranian regime’s terrorism, regional proxy war, internal suppression.”

The University of Notre Dame has hired Lewis-Burke Associates to lobby on “[i]ssues pertaining to higher education, research, science, and technology.”

Endorsement watch. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) is endorsing Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio). Lummis is one of crypto’s biggest supporters in the Senate and Husted is likely to face a challenge from former Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

– Jake Sherman and Ally Mutnick

MOMENTS

CLIPS