12 new red seats: Inside the GOP's redistricting push

IN THIS EDITION

The GOP’s unprecedented redistricting power play

Palantir CEO will speak at Johnson’s Wyoming donor retreat

The GOP senator who helped broker a potential peace deal

Tech: Cruz ‘still listening’ on Nvidia’s H20 exports

THE TOP

The GOP’s unprecedented redistricting power play

Happy Friday morning.

House Republicans are now aiming to pick up a dozen or more House seats in an unprecedented, Donald Trump-backed redistricting drive, looking to head off a Democratic wave in the 2026 midterms and cement the president’s power.

Republicans are hoping to net a minimum of three House seats in Florida, as we scooped Thursday. Add that to the five seats in Texas, one each in Missouri and Indiana, plus two or three in Ohio, where state law mandates a redraw ahead of 2026.

The Supreme Court also has yet to rule in a high-profile Louisiana redistricting case on the 1965 Voting Rights Act that could further alter next year’s congressional landscape.

The Sunshine State effort, officially announced by Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez on Thursday, is only the most recent Republican initiative to cushion the blow from what’s expected to be a difficult midterms for the GOP. Republicans are hoping to redraw three districts in their favor, likely those of Democratic Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz in Trump-tending South Florida, as well as Darren Soto in the Orlando area.

Should Florida Republicans feel particularly ambitious, they could even aim to make Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor’s seat more difficult in Tampa or Rep. Lois Frankel’s district redder in Palm Beach County.

Florida is a bit of a unique case for Team Trump. The president, of course, lives in Palm Beach. Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, and James Blair, the president’s deputy chief of staff, are also key players in the Florida political world.

What’s at stake. This nationwide push is nominally about an electorate that’s trending in Republicans’ direction — or was in 2024 at least. But, in reality, it’s also just a bareknuckled power play.

Trump and his top political operatives don’t want a Democratic-controlled House in 2027 and are doing everything they can to avoid it. That outcome would mean endless investigations, spending showdowns and potential impeachments. With Mike Johnson as speaker, a GOP-run House would remain an effective arm of the White House, letting Trump do basically whatever he wants.

And the reality here is tough for Democrats — there’s little they can do to soften this blow.

Democrats are scrambling to counter this redistricting offensive, primarily with a hasty attempt to amend California’s constitution. Yet Democrats can’t come close to matching the potential GOP gains in red states where Trump has enviable approval ratings and compliant legislatures looking to do his bidding.

DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene put it this way:

What it means. The fallout from this GOP effort will invite the inevitable Democratic backlash, as well as a tidal wave of lawsuits.

But there’s another critical angle to consider. More moderates in swing districts will get squeezed out of office, making a hyper-partisan Congress even more sharply divided. It will be tougher to pass any compromise legislation as members focus on their chief political hurdle — winning their primary by taking the most extreme, “pure” positions possible.

It may also lead to the near-total disappearance of white Democratic moderates from the solid-red South or centrist Republicans from New York, California and big blue states, a trend that’s been playing out for years. On the other hand, Black and Hispanic Democrats in the South may survive — depending on the Supreme Court.

Democrats have reacted angrily to Republicans’ redistricting moves. But as we’ve reported, it is extremely hard for many of the biggest blue states to redraw their maps because they’ve ceded redistricting power to independent commissions in the name of good government.

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom — a 2028 hopeful — is doing everything he can to sidestep his commission, but he’ll need Golden State voters to back his efforts in a special election. This will be extremely expensive and may not work. If it does, the prize could be five new blue seats, which could negate the proposed Texas map.

Where else can Democrats find more seats? Maryland could offer one. But Democrats tried to pass such a map in the 2022 cycle and a court shot it down as an illegal partisan gerrymander.

Oregon is another possibility, although Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek didn’t sound particularly enthusiastic. It’s possible that Democrats could gain a seat out of Illinois, although the Land of Lincoln is already heavily gerrymandered in their favor.

Democrats in other blue states would have to amend their own constitutions in order to get into the redistricting fight. The deadline has passed to do this before the 2026 elections in New Jersey and Colorado. Democrats don’t have the votes in Washington State. New York would require court intervention, and state judges haven’t favored Democrats in redistricting there in recent years.

There’s some chance Democrats could get favorable court rulings in Wisconsin and Utah — but again, this isn’t guaranteed.

So here’s the math: Republicans can get 12 or more new seats fairly easily. Democrats can get two or three without amending a state constitution, and eight if Newsom’s California gambit works. This could mean the difference between a GOP-held House or Democratic.

The one bit of good news for Democrats is that its unlikely Republicans could truly put a majority out of reach if there’s an actual blue wave in 2026. That will depend on the economy and other factors that Democrats can’t fully control, however.

– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Ally Mutnick

THE SPEAKER

Palantir CEO will speak at Johnson’s Wyoming donor retreat

News: Palantir CEO Alex Karp will address Speaker Mike Johnson’s annual big-donor retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., next week, multiple sources familiar with the schedule told us.

Karp is among the highest-profile attendees expected at the event next week. Karp will discuss “growth versus gridlock.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who will be appearing in his personal capacity, will speak about energy dominance.

Katherine Boyle, who leads the “American Dynamism” practice for Andreessen Horowitz, will be on a panel with House Homeland Security Committee Chair Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) and Jen Kiggans (R-Va.). The discussion will be about defense, tech and securing the homeland.

NRCC Chair Richard Hudson and CLF President Chris Winkelman will participate in a conversation on the midterm elections.

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso will participate in a panel discussion about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

CLF, the House Republican leadership-linked super PAC, will hold parallel programming featuring several Trump-linked political advisers, according to sources familiar with the planning.

The Jackson Hole event has been a staple of House Republican politics for years. Typically, the top House Republican holds the August summit as a way to court big donors who cut six-figure checks. John Boehner started the event, and every Republican leader since — Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy — have put the confab on. The retreat is Monday and Tuesday next week.

Palantir’s Washington power. Karp, 57, is the cofounder of Palantir, which Forbes declared Thursday is “one of the world’s 25 most valuable companies.” Karp, the CEO, has a personal fortune of $15.7 billion, according to Forbes.

Karp has given to both parties this cycle. He’s cut checks to Democrats including Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) and Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.).

Karp also donated $250,000 to Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super PAC backing Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) re-election campaign, as well as giving $110,515 to Cornyn’s victory committee. Karp donated $310,100 to the NRCC, $360,000 to Grow the Majority — a Johnson joint fundraising committee — and $26,800 to Hudson.

Top Trump administration tech figures have ties to Palantir. David Sacks, the Silicon Valley investor who is now White House AI and crypto czar, put money into Palantir early on. Michael Kratsios, the director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, worked closely with Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel, as did Vice President JD Vance.

Palantir Co-Founder Joe Lonsdale also backed Trump through Elon Musk’s super-PAC.

Looking ahead. Palantir is poised to grow its already sizable government contracting. The Army recently awarded the firm a mega-contract that could be worth $10 billion.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon is looking to pivot away from developing software in-house or having traditional aerospace firms and Beltway-area consultants do the job. The Defense Department is hoping Silicon Valley and venture capital portfolio firms can fill the gap. (Andreessen and Horowitz have a similar opportunity there.)

The Denver-based Palantir spent $1.64 million lobbying in the second quarter of 2025. The company employs a host of top lobbyists in addition to an in-house staff, including Miller Strategies, run by GOP megalobbyist Jeff Miller; Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, where Bart Reising, a former top aide to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is on the account; Ballard Partners, Brian Ballard’s firm; and Invariant, run by Democratic uber lobbyist Heather Podesta.

Much of Palantir’s lobbying is aimed at procurement, the annual defense authorization, artificial intelligence for national security and related issues, according to disclosures. But Palantir’s also keeping an eye on other government programs, including pandemic data, the fight against fraud at the IRS or even the use of the company’s products in hospitals.

– Jake Sherman and Ben Brody

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

The GOP senator who helped broker a potential peace deal

President Donald Trump is expected to host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House today to pave the way for a long-elusive peace deal between the two South Caucasus nations.

While many of the details aren’t yet public, the Trump administration views bringing Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan together as a way to reduce both nations’ dependence on Russia and to boost U.S. access to the wealth of critical minerals found in that part of the world.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s top peace negotiator, have taken leading roles in the negotiations. But it was a late May visit to both countries by Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) that helped secure a breakthrough, according to sources familiar with the matter.

On May 29, Daines — who will be at the White House today for the unveiling — traveled to Baku and met with Aliyev alongside representatives from Rubio’s and Witkoff’s teams. The next day, the group met with Pashinyan.

CODEL lowdown. This wasn’t your typical CODEL. There was live negotiating. And Daines’ message to the heads of state was that the United States wants to be a reliable partner to both nations. That can help the United States too, as Russia has long been the most powerful force in the region.

It remains to be seen whether the White House summit today will lead to lasting peace between the two longtime foes.

It’s also unclear whether Azerbaijan’s 2023 military takeover of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region — and the Armenians displaced as a result — will be addressed.

But according to sources familiar with the late May meetings, Pashinyan didn’t indicate to Daines and the U.S. diplomats in the room whether he would engage in further military conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

“We cannot miss this moment,” Daines said.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

THE CAMPAIGN

New: Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp’s super PAC, Hardworking Americans, is announcing a two-week ad buy on Fox News to boost Senate hopeful Derek Dooley. The upcoming ad buy is the latest sign that Kemp’s team is getting behind Dooley in the Georgia GOP primary.

While Kemp hasn’t officially endorsed Dooley yet, his advisers and team are working to elect the former college football coach.

— Max Cohen

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