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September 4, 2023
Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Monday morning. Happy Labor Day. And we’re back for a very busy sprint to the end of 2023.
The Senate returns to session tomorrow. The House is out for another week. Speaker Kevin McCarthy will travel to Japan for the G7 heads of parliament gathering, where he’ll come face to face with the leader of Ukraine’s lawmaking body, the Rada.
We’re heading into what will be the most intense legislative stretch of this Congress — by far. Just consider what’s on the table:
1) The federal government will shut down in less than a month unless a funding bill is passed by Sept. 30. That’s only 16 legislative days away (and even fewer for the House) under the current schedule. The House and Senate are in completely different universes when it comes to how lawmakers should fund federal agencies in both the short and long term. House Republicans are also pushing a number of “culture war” provisions that won’t fly with the Senate or White House.
2) The White House has asked Congress to pass a $40+ billion supplemental spending package. The request includes funds for natural disasters, enhanced border security and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Lawmakers are already starting to tussle about whether disaster money — which will help communities in Florida battered by Hurricane Idalia and Maui following last month’s deadly wildfires — should be split off from the Ukraine money. This is very unlikely to happen. The White House and Democrats need these issues twinned to ensure passage.
3) House Republicans are running headlong into impeaching President Joe Biden. They will have to figure out this month whether to open an impeachment inquiry into the president. McCarthy will have to balance the fervor of hardline GOP conservatives with the hesitance of his moderates running in districts Biden won in 2020.
4) Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) unprecedented blockade of senior military promotions has no end in sight, and critical posts — including, for the first time ever, three spots on the Joint Chiefs of Staff — are occupied by interim officers who aren’t Senate-confirmed. Democrats are maintaining that it’s up to Senate GOP leaders to get Tuberville to back off. That hasn’t happened yet, and given Tuberville’s latest statements, it would seem to be a futile effort anyway.
5) Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s health and his ability to continue leading the GOP conference are becoming real concerns among Senate Republicans after McConnell’s latest freezing episode. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is extraordinarily fragile and is in the middle of a bruising legal battle over her late husband’s estate. And House Majority Leader Steve Scalise has blood cancer and will undergo treatment.
Let’s focus this morning on the most pressing issue — the FY2024 government funding fight.
Here’s some news: McCarthy currently plans to move this month to extend government funding for approximately four to six more weeks, until either Nov. 1 or Nov. 15. (The mid-November date seems more likely to us.) McCarthy’s theory of the case seems to be that he wants to try to pass some more appropriations bills to give House Republicans a stronger hand going into negotiations with the Senate. A “minibus” built around the Homeland Security funding bill is one potential option.
There are already signs that McCarthy and McConnell aren’t on the same page here. Speaking in Kentucky last week, the Senate GOP leader said he envisions a short-term funding bill running through the end of the year. “Honestly, it’s a pretty big mess,” McConnell noted of the funding fight. McCarthy has firmly ruled out a funding bill that expires in the December holiday season.
Remember that under the Fiscal Responsibility Act, a 1% across-the-board spending cut goes into effect on Jan. 1 if all 12 annual spending bills aren’t passed by then.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is calling on the House to mirror the Senate’s process when it comes to funding the government for the entire fiscal year. The Senate Appropriations Committee has approved all 12 funding bills with overwhelming bipartisan margins, while the House’s approps process has been sharply partisan. The House, though, has passed one FY2024 bill on the floor, MilCon-VA.
Schumer is expected to start processing the Senate’s funding bills on the floor this month, mostly likely beginning with a few of the less controversial ones grouped together. Schumer sent a Dear Colleague Friday to Senate Democrats on this and other topics.
The first order of business for the Senate this week, however, will be processing some Federal Reserve, NLRB and FCC nominations before the House returns next week.
McConnell has suggested he’s supportive of the supplemental request, so there’s a good chance it gets through the Senate in some form — most likely as a rider on any short-term CR. The House will be a big challenge, though.
— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
Jacky Rosen bets on ‘Bidenomics’ in must-win Nevada
LAS VEGAS — Placing big, risky bets isn’t all that uncommon in the Silver State. So Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is going all in on “Bidenomics.”
Running for re-election in what she calls a “pragmatically purple” state, the 66-year-old Rosen is banking on President Joe Biden’s economic policies, long-standing ties to Nevada and her record of bipartisanship to lift her to a second Senate term.
It’s far from a sure thing. Republicans see Rosen as uniquely vulnerable in 2024, and Nevada is becoming much more competitive territory for the GOP. Nevada’s unemployment rate remains higher than the national average after the Covid-19 pandemic. Energy prices and inflation are big issues here, too.
But Rosen has made a conscious decision to run toward — not away from — the legislative victories achieved under Biden, including those that earned GOP support, like the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law. She’s also embracing the Inflation Reduction Act, specifically the provisions that capped insulin prices and allowed Medicare to negotiate drug prices.
“The bills that we’ve passed over the last few years, you’re seeing them now with shovels in the ground, projects being done,” Rosen told us in an interview here. “But I do get it. Prices are still too high. Gas is still too high at the gas pump. We’re going to continue working on lowering those prices.”
Republicans are looking to tie Rosen to what they claim are destructive Biden policies holding back a true economic recovery and driving inflation.
And they’re planning to do it differently than in 2022, when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) defeated her GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by just 8,000 votes. While Laxalt tried to juice GOP base turnout, Rosen’s lead Republican challenger Sam Brown is looking to appeal to unaffiliated voters, who now make up the largest voting bloc in the state.
It will be a pivotal test not only for Democrats’ hopes of retaining the Senate majority, but for Biden himself ahead of a potential rematch with former President Donald Trump in 2024.
But Brown is actively avoiding questions about the man he could be forced to share the ticket with in 2024 — Trump.
Brown, a former Army captain who suffered permanent burn wounds in Afghanistan, is instead focusing his energy on Rosen and Biden, saying “there should be accountability at the ballot box” for Nevada’s lackluster economic numbers. Brown also criticized the federal infrastructure efforts.
“The economy — everything is stacked against us, whether it’s inflation and then raising interest rates to combat inflation,” Brown said in an interview. “The sad truth is, when you’ve spent that much money, it’s also driving inflation.”
Of course, tourism is the major driver of Nevada’s economy and it will play a central role in the 2024 Senate race, as it does in every statewide contest here. We spoke with Rosen immediately after she chaired a tourism-focused Senate field hearing at the Las Vegas Convention Center.
But Rosen is also seeking to highlight her Nevada roots, noting that her family has been in the state since the 1970s. Brown has faced carpetbagging allegations from Democrats who note that he used to live in Texas and ran for the state legislature there in 2014.
Democrats see Rosen as someone who can successfully straddle being a team player in Washington while also breaking from her party at times. On national security, for instance, Rosen has voted with Republicans on issues related to Israel and Iran, and she co-founded the Abraham Accords Caucus in celebration of the Trump-era peace agreements.
“My model is: agree where you can and fight where you must,” Rosen said. “Nevada is my home, it’s what I care about most of all. And I can show that in my bipartisanship and the kinds of bills and work that I’ve done.”
— Andrew Desiderio
📅
What we’re watching
Tuesday: There are two closely watched special election primaries that’ll go a long way toward determining who will fill a couple open House seats.
Voters in Rhode Island’s 1st District head to the polls for a special primary election. Former Rep. David Cicilline’s (D-R.I.) retirement created the vacancy, which will be filled with a general election on Nov. 7. This is D+12 district, so this seat will very likely remain in the Democratic column.
And in Utah, there’s a special Republican primary election to replace retiring GOP Rep. Chris Stewart in the 2nd District. Stewart will be leaving office on Sept. 15. The GOP primary winner will take on Utah State Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D) – the minority whip – in the Nov. 21 general election. This is an R+11 district, so it should stay in GOP hands, although Democrats have high hopes that Riebe will make it close.
Wednesday: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a hearing on the AUKUS partnership. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will have a hearing on DHS responsibilities after Title 42 public health authority expired.
Thursday: The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold a hearing on the Energy Department’s role in AI. Senate Foreign Relations will hold a hearing on budget priorities for the Western Hemisphere.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY CITI
The Citi GPS Report, Disruptive Innovations IX, shines a light on 10 leading-edge concepts that could disrupt their marketplace – from retail and education to farming.
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
Former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.) has signed up Arizona State University and will lobby on “university interests through the lens of foreign affairs.”
Visa has signed up Forbes Tate to lobby on “Issues related to payment card issues, including Cost of Acceptance & interchange; Issues related to payments policy, including S. 1838/H.R. 3881 – the Credit Card Competition Act; Issues related to H.R. 2670 – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024.”
Lloyds of London, the British insurance company, has signed up Howard Law and Policy Group to lobby on flood insurance, cannabis banking and a host of other issues.
– Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
Remember: The House is still out this week. So if you’re inclined, Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) will be hosting a fundraiser tonight at SoFi Stadium for Beyonce’s birthday at her concert. This will set you back $3,000 per person.
Rather eat? Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.) will be hosting a “Los Angeles Food Adventure” in Santa Monica, Calif., tomorrow for $2,500.
Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif) has his Steelhead Spectacular in Klamath, Calif., Thursday night.
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY CITI
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Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.